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2024 NCAA Tournament West Region Betting Primer (March Madness)

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The West Region feels like the most wide-open region of the four, making it the hardest to figure out.

North Carolina is really good but could easily be tripped up by a Michigan State team that seems to find a way with Tom Izzo. The Arizona Wildcats are prolific offensively but can be wildly inconsistent. Baylor can outshoot anyone, but they’re just as likely to give the points right back on the other end. Alabama is fully dependent on how well they stroke it from deep. And even St. Mary’s has mixed results in the big dance.

Could this be the region where chaos occurs? Here’s a full breakdown of every team in the West Region of the March Madness Bracket.

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NCAA Tournament West Region Betting Primer

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

(1) North Carolina Tar Heels (27-7 SU, 19-15 ATS, 16-18 O/U) 

Odds: 13/1

Strengths: Balance is a key strength for the fourth-best No. 1 seed. UNC ranks 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik. They have four double-digit scorers, a top-end scoring guard in R.J. Davis and an elite big man in Armando Bacot. The Tar Heels take care of the ball, own the glass on both sides and do a good job of drawing fouls and defending without fouling.

Weaknesses: North Carolina can go cold from the field, as we saw in the ACC Championship Game. The Heels rank 99th in 3-point shooting and outside the top 170 in 2-point shooting.

X-Factor: Guards matter most in March, and Davis can carry this team to a Final Four. But when Bacot is fully engaged, the Tar Heels are really darn good.

Prediction: UNC could be presented with a tricky spot against either Mississippi State or Michigan State in the second round. Either team is capable of tripping the Heels up, and they surely won’t want to see Tom Izzo in March. It wouldn’t stun me if the Tar Heels went to the Final Four or lost in the second round. Their path to Phoenix isn’t too formidable either. UNC is truly a boom-or-bust team in this field.

(2) Arizona Wildcats (25-8 SU, 21-12 ATS, 15-17-1 O/U) 

Odds: 12/1

Strengths: Offense. The Wildcats play fast and shoot the lights out, ranking top-35 in both 3-point and 2-point shooting. The Wildcats also dominate the glass and have a beast down low in Oumar Bello.

Weaknesses: Consistency and shot selection. The Wildcats aren’t afraid to chuck up bad shots and are also susceptible along the perimeter.

X-Factor: Caleb Love can stage a long tournament run or can shoot the Wildcats out of the tournament by the end of the opening weekend.

Prediction: I don’t love this Arizona team, and think they’re ripe for an upset in the second round against a dangerous Dayton team that plays at a drastically slower pace and is just as good of a shooting team.

(3) Baylor Bears (23-10 SU, 19-12-1 ATS, 17-15 O/U) 

Odds: 35/1

Strengths: Few teams can match Baylor’s 3-point shooting and athleticism. The Bears have a slew of future pros and make nearly 40% of their 3-point shots. If Baylor misses a shot, they crash the glass hard, ranking 23rd in offensive rebounding rate.

Weaknesses: The Bears are vulnerable on the defensive end, ranking 222nd in effective field goal percentage defensively.

X-Factor: The Bears have six players scoring in double figures this season, but RayJ Dennis is the straw that stirs the drink most often.

Prediction: Baylor’s upside gives it as good a shot as any to win this region. However, I don’t trust their defense enough to stage a prolonged run. A run that ends in the Sweet 16 feels right.

(4) Alabama Crimson Tide (21-11 SU, 17-14-1 ATS, 24-8 O/U) 

Odds: 40/1

Strengths: Not many teams can put the ball in the basket as well as Alabama, which ranks fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 11th in shooting. When the Crimson Tide are hitting their 3s, they are virtually unbeatable.

Weaknesses: Alabama is horrible on the interior and fouls a ton on the defensive end, leaving them little room for error from beyond the arc.

X-Factor: Mark Sears is “the guy” for Alabama; they go as he goes.

Prediction: A run to the second weekend is surely possible with a hot week of shooting, but trusting this Crimson Tide team to go any further is awfully risky.

(5) St. Mary’s Gaels (26-7 SU, 18-14 ATS, 17-15 O/U) 

Odds: 70/1

Strengths: The Gaels are a methodical machine, ranking 357th in tempo and 30th in adjusted offensive efficiency. It’s difficult to get many 3s off against St. Mary’s, and they do a tremendous job defending the interior.

Weaknesses: The Gaels had trouble elevating their game against elite competition. St. Mary’s went 4-3 against Bart Torvik’s top-50 teams, losing to San Diego State, Boise State and Gonzaga.

X-Factor: Aidan Mahaney has the potential to take over games, especially from the perimeter.

Prediction: I, for one, would love to see a style clash between St. Mary’s and Alabama, a game I think St. Mary’s could win. But they’ll first have to get past a scrappy Grand Canyon team. A Sweet 16 run feels like a good bet if they do that.

(6) Clemson Tigers (21-11 SU, 17-14-1 ATS, 17-15 O/U) 

Odds: 100/1

Strengths: Clemson’s a strong team along the interior, where it ranks top-50 in 2-point offense and defense.

Weaknesses: The Tigers have lost three of four down the stretch and were one-and-done in the ACC Tournament. They also struggle along the perimeter on both sides.

X-Factor: While big man PJ Hall is the foundation, guard Joseph Girard’s performance from 3-point range will likely determine how far Clemson goes.

Prediction: There couldn’t be a bigger difference in momentum between the Tigers and their first-round opponent, New Mexico. A trip to the second weekend feels highly unlikely.

(7) Dayton Flyers (24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS, 18-12-1 O/U) 

Odds: 160/1

Strengths: The Flyers have the profile of a potential Cinderella. They play at a snail’s pace but are a lethal shooting team, particularly from deep, where they rank third in the country.

Weaknesses: Dayton has trended poorly on the defensive end, ranking 147th in defensive efficiency over its last 10 games. The Flyers are also a poor rebounding team.

X-Factor: DaRon Holmes II could be the best player in this region that many haven’t heard of, and could be a hero for Dayton if they stage a run.

Prediction: Let’s have some fun and project Dayton to the Sweet 16.

(8) Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-13 SU, 17-16-1 ATS, 15-18-1 O/U) 

Odds: 120/1

Strengths: The Bulldogs are exceptional at defending the 3, crash the offensive glass and can score from the interior and through drawing fouls.

Weaknesses: Mississippi State turns the ball over at an alarming rate and struggles mightily to make 3s. They’re also susceptible along the interior.

X-Factor: The inside-out tandem of Josh Hubbard and Tolu Smith do the bulk of the heavy lifting offensively.

Prediction: A matchup against Michigan State concerns me here, and the Bulldogs bow out in the first round.

(9) Michigan State Spartans (19-14 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 14-19 O/U) 

Odds: 80/1

Strengths: Tom Izzo in March. The Spartans made a Sweet 16 run last year as a seven-seed and have the talent on paper to do it again.

Weaknesses: The Spartans have just underachieved all season. Perhaps their greatest weakness is they don’t have an overwhelming strength.

X-Factor: If Tyson Walker is close to healthy, he’s capable of helping this Spartans team make some noise.

Prediction: Michigan State gets past Mississippi State but ultimately falls to the Tar Heels.

(10) Nevada Wolf Pack (26-7 SU, 21-11 ATS, 15-17 O/U) 

Odds: 140/1

Strengths: Nevada is a strong offensive team that shoots well, takes care of the ball and gets to the foul line regularly.

Weaknesses: Nevada can be dominated defensively on the interior, which resulted in an early exit from the Mountain West tournament.

X-Factor: Guard Jarod Lucas is fully capable of going from relative unknown to Cinderella storymaker.

Prediction: Nevada plays a thriller against Dayton but ultimately falls short.

(11) New Mexico Lobos (26-9 SU, 23-11 ATS, 18-16  O/U) 

Odds: 120/1

Strengths: The Lobos are healthy and red-hot. They have a trio of guards, Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr.,and Donovan Dent, who can lead them on a long run. The Lobos play at a breakneck pace, predicated on scoring off of forced turnovers.

Weaknesses: Things can get messy when New Mexico is forced to play in the half-court. The Lobos aren’t the best jump-shooting team, ranking 155th in effective field goal percentage.

X-Factor: New Mexico’s guards need to play nice and avoid hero ball like they did in winning the Mountain West tournament.

Prediction: New Mexico upsets Clemson and gives the Baylor Bears a real scare, with a solid chance of a Cinderella run.

(12) Grand Canyon Lopes (29-4 SU, 18-14 ATS, 17-15 O/U) 

Odds: 300/1

Strengths: The Lopes defend awfully hard, ranking 10th in 2-point defense and 38th in turnover rate. They block a ton of shots, crash the offensive glass and get to the free-throw line at a high rate.

Weaknesses: Grand Canyon isn’t a great shooting team and played just two games against top-50 teams. They did win one of those games, taking down San Diego State. The second was a 7-point loss to South Carolina.

X-Factor: Tyon Grant-Foster averaged nearly 20 points a game and will need to put up those types of numbers against the Gaels.

Prediction: Grand Canyon gives St. Mary’s all it can handle but falls short of a 12-5 upset.

(13) Charleston Cougars (27-7 SU, 15-18  ATS, 18-15 O/U) 

Odds: 1,000/1

Strengths: The Cougars are a run-and-gun team, playing at the 51st-fastest tempo and shooting 3s at the 16th-highest rate. Charleston also takes good care of the ball and cleans up the glass on both ends.

Weaknesses: The Cougars only make 34.8% of their 3s and are a below-average defensive team.

X-Factor: If the 3s are falling, Charleston could pull off a colossal upset.

Prediction: The game between Charleston and Alabama should be a blast to watch. Charleston has the potential to pull a massive upset, but ultimately, Bama will just make more shots.

(14) Colgate Raiders (25-9 SU, 17-16 ATS, 11-20-2 O/U) 

Odds: 1,000/1

Strengths: Colgate ranks 10th nationally in 3-point defense.

Weaknesses: The Raiders are a poor offensive-rebounding team and lack much athleticism.

X-Factor: Guard Braeden Smith has to have a big game for Colgate to have a chance of an upset.

Prediction: Colgate is no slouch and has given teams trouble in the past, but this team lacks the offensive upside of past groups. A first-round exit is most likely.

(15) Long Beach State Beach (21-14 SU, 16-17 ATS, 18-14-1 O/U) 

Odds: 2,000/1

Strengths: Long Beach State attacks the offensive glass and gets to the line a ton.

Weaknesses: Beach is uninterested in taking 3s and is just as uninterested in making them, shooting just 31.3% from deep.

X-Factor: Marcus Tsohonis must show out for Beach to have a prayer against Arizona.

Prediction: Long Beach State went from losing five straight and firing its coach to winning the Big West tournament. The unbelievable story ends against Arizona.

(16) Wagner Seahawks (16-15 SU, 14-15 ATS, 10-19 O/U) 

Odds: 5,000/1

Strengths: Wagner’s sluggish pace and strong 3-point defense allow it to stay in games.

Weaknesses: The Seahawks are atrocious offensively, ranking 353rd in effective field goal percentage.

X-Factor: Staying out of foul trouble against Howard will be key for a team that had just seven players in the Northeast Conference tournament final.

Prediction: Wagner falls to a Howard team that simply makes more shots.

(16) Howard Bison (18-16 SU, 12-19-1 ATS, 20-12 O/U) 

Odds: 5,000/1

Strengths: Howard shot 37.5% from 3 this season and played tight games against Power Five foes like Georgia Tech and Cincinnati. They crash the offensive glass and draw a ton of fouls.

Weaknesses: Howard doesn’t take care of the basketball and can be exploited on the interior.

X-Factor: Their 3-point shooting will determine whether Howard gets past Wagner and gives UNC some trouble.

Prediction: Howard beats Wagner but is drubbed by UNC.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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