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2024 NCAA Tournament: Which No. 1 Seed Will Be Eliminated First?

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The NCAA Tournament is an event filled with surprises, one of the biggest being a No. 1 seed that loses earlier than perhaps expected. Or, in last year’s case, a No. 1 seed (Purdue) losing its first game of the tournament in truly stunning fashion.

While expecting another top seed to fall in the Round of 64 is a fool’s errand, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see at least one of the top seeds go down in the opening weekend. In fact, it’s more likely a 1-seed goes down before the second weekend than it is all four 1-seeds to make the Final Four – a feat that’s only occurred once.

Which No. 1 seed is most ripe for the picking? Let’s take a deeper dive into each team and their tournament paths.

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Which 2024 No. 1 Seed Most Likely to Lose First?

UConn Huskies 

Overview

If you had just told me which teams were the No. 1 seeds and nothing else, I would’ve chosen UConn as the team that felt the most bulletproof. The Huskies are the top seed for a reason. They’re every bit as good as last year’s national title team if not better.

The Huskies have the nation’s most efficient offense and rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Torvik. They have a dynamic duo in the backcourt led by Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer, a monster in the middle in Donovan Clingan, and a versatile forward in Alex Karaban. If freshman guard Stephon Castle reaches another level, this team is nearly unbeatable.

What I love about UConn is they can win in a variety of ways and thrive in any game script. They were also battle tested during the non-conference and conference slates.

Flaws 

UConn’s biggest, and perhaps only flaw is its aggressiveness on the defensive end can get it into foul trouble. The Huskies send opponents to the line at a pretty high rate. Getting Clingan into foul trouble is an enormous step toward knocking off the Huskies.

The Path 

Remember when I said UConn felt ironclad? I still mostly think that, but the NCAA selection committee did Dan Hurley’s crew no favors. The Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 Tournament winners all reside in the East Region. The Huskies could even face a stiff test in the Round of 32 against a Florida Atlantic team that just went to the Final Four a year ago. A potential matchup against Auburn in the Sweet Sixteen won’t be easy either.

The Verdict

While I don’t love UConn’s draw in the tournament, they are still far more balanced than anyone else in the East Region. I think they are safe from being the first top seed eliminated.

Houston Cougars 

Overview

The Cougars aren’t afraid to play the bully. Houston boasts the nation’s top defense, rank top-15 in both defending 3-point and 2-point shots, and crash the offensive glass at a ridiculous rate. Their style of play translated just fine from the American to the Big 12, as Houston won the conference’s regular season crown. Jamal Shead is the do-it-all point guard for a team that doesn’t have a true star.

Flaws

Houston’s bad side reared its ugly head in the Big 12 Tournament Final. The Cougars shot 11-for-34 from the interior and 4-of-22 from three, failing to pull down enough offensive rebounds in a 28-point loss to Iowa State. When the Cougs can’t hit shots, things can go sideways fast. The Cougars also aren’t overly deep, playing just seven guys primarily. For a team that fouls as much as Houston does, depth could be a major problem against a team that can generate trips to the free-throw line.

The Path

Houston could have its hands full as early as the Round of 32. Both Nebraska and Texas A&M are dangerous threats for different reasons. The Cornhuskers take and make a ton of threes, but probably couldn’t handle Houston’s physicality on the glass. The real threat could be A&M, who is almost a carbon-copy of Houston. These two teams also squared off in December in a game Houston won by four. Both teams pulled down nearly 45% of their missed shots. Texas A&M is also a poor shooting team that pulls down a ton of boards and gets to the foul line a ton.

I’ll go as far as to say that Texas A&M could be the toughest team Houston faces before the Elite Eight, as I wouldn’t worry about them against Wisconsin or a soft Duke team in the Sweet Sixteen.

The Verdict

Houston makes me nervous because they’re fully capable of pulling a dud out of their cap from the field. If they can get past a potential rematch with Texas A&M, they could bully their way to the Final Four.

Purdue Boilermakers 

Overview

I’m sure plenty of people will peg Purdue as the most vulnerable 1-seed because of last year’s fiasco against Fairleigh Dickinson. To judge this year’s team based on last year’s misfortune could be misleading.

Purdue is of course anchored by likely two-time Naismith Winner, Zach Edey. What intrigues me about this year’s team is a group of guards that have grown up fast after being the reason for their demise a year ago. The Boilermakers played, and beat, a ton of the top teams in this tournament. They are the second-best 3-point shooting team in the country and are a sound defensive team at all levels.

Flaws

While I’m not judging this team based on last year’s results, Purdue’s tournament reputation for falling short in comical fashion is definitely something that’ll be on everyone’s mind as they tip things off. It will also be interesting to see how Purdue handles things if Edey doesn’t get as friendly of a whistle as he received during Big Ten play. Purdue coach Matt Painter also has to prove he can scheme up success in crunch time. Lance Jones will be the X-factor in preventing Purdue’s offense from stalling out.

Purdue also doesn’t turn teams over much, forcing them to be especially good at challenging shots. The Boilermakers also allow 3-point attempts at a relatively high rate.

The Path

Purdue can’t argue much about its path, assuming it gets past Montana State or Grambling State first. Both TCU and Utah State are miserable interior defensive teams, and the Boilermakers got paired with a couple of vulnerable top seeds in a banged up Kansas squad and a flawed Gonzaga squad.

The Verdict

This surely won’t come back to haunt me, right? I think Purdue is actually a relatively safe bet to avoid last year’s outcome as the first 1-seed bounced.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Overview

The Tar Heels probably wouldn’t be a top seed most years. However, the ACC regular season champs were given the final one seed almost by default.

That’s not to say UNC is undeserving. The Tar Heels have one of the best guards in the nation in R.J. Davis, who is fully capable of lifting the Tar Heels on a deep run. Veteran big man Armando Bacot still looms large too, even though he hasn’t had a tremendous season.

UNC is a strong defensive team, ranking top-20 in effective field-goal percentage. The Tar Heels take care of the ball and crash the offensive glass with Bacot manning the middle.

Flaws 

North Carolina isn’t all that great of a shooting team despite Davis’ takeover ability. The Heels rank just 144th in effective field-goal percentage. If Davis has an off night, North Carolina could be facing an early exit.

The Path 

The West Region isn’t overly loaded, but the Tar Heels could face a really stiff test in the Round of 32. As much as Michigan State has underachieved, nobody wants to see Tom Izzo in March. Don’t forget about Mississippi State either: a scrappy team led by a great coach in Chris Jans that features an inside-out combo that not many teams possess.

I also have a tough time trusting the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in UNC’s bracket. Alabama is a total boom or bust team that could go to the Final Four or lose to Charleston in the first round. St. Mary’s is the polar opposite in terms of tempo but is equally as capable of putting up a clunker.

The Verdict

While UNC’s path isn’t all that formidable, this isn’t an elite Tar Heels team. North Carolina could get tripped up as early as the Round of 32.

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds in Order of Likelihood to Be the First to Lose

  1. North Carolina
  2. Houston
  3. Purdue
  4. UConn

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