2024 NCAA Women’s Final Four Props: Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, Aziaha James
As women’s basketball captures unprecedented attention, the anticipation for the 2024 Women’s Final Four has reached new heights, offering not just a showcase of elite talent but also a realm of betting possibilities that promise to amplify the excitement.
After a rewarding round of Elite Eight predictions, we now delve into the best prop bets for the NCAA Women’s Final Four. From Caitlin Clark’s remarkable performance that catapulted the Hawkeyes into their second consecutive Final Four to the strategic nuances that could define tonight’s clashes, we explore the narratives and numbers that could shape the outcomes and betting landscapes.
Friday’s Best 2024 Women’s Final Four Prop Bets
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Caitlin Clark Over 10.5 Assists (+100) and Over 5.5 Threes (-125)
Clark stepped on the court on Monday and scored 41 points, including nine three-pointers, 12 assists, and seven rebounds, to lead the Hawkeyes to their second consecutive Final Four. LSU had no answer for her prolific scoring ability, so she just kept doing it. I expect UConn to have a better plan for her tonight in an attempt to slow her down ever so slightly.
I also think it won’t work.
People have been discussing the fact that Geno Auriemma did not recruit her coming out of high school, setting up a “revenge narrative†for Clark that, honestly, I don’t think she needs. (Plus, UConn already had Paige Bueckers committed.) The only narrative necessary is that the all-time leading scorer in college basketball wants a title, and she is going to do whatever she can to get it.
If that means shooting 9-for-20 from deep again, that’s what she’ll do. UConn allowed opponents 22.5 three-point attempts per game this season, ranking 332nd in the country, and 6.3 makes, ranking 246th. I’ll take the over on Clark’s 5.5 threes.
If that means becoming the masterful pass-first distributor she is, she’ll do it. Regarding assists, the Huskies ranked 357th, allowing 11.7 per game. I am going to take the plus-money on her reaching the over on the absurdly high line of 10.5 assists.
UConn ranked 13th in opposing two-point FG percentage, so I expect Iowa to set up its plethora of three-point shooters around the perimeter and launch long balls until the cows come home. (I’m from Iowa-I get to use that saying just this once.) The Hawks ranked first in the country in three-pointers per game at 11.1; Clark “only†averaged 5.2, meaning there are plenty of other shooters available, which should also help boost her dimes total.
I’m avoiding her points (33.5) and rebounds (7.5) lines in case this turns into one of those 29-point, 15-assist nights for her.
Otherwise, I’m just going to sit back and appreciate greatness in what should be an outstanding game.
Other Iowa Bets:
- Sydney Affolter Over 6.5 Rebounds (-125)
- Kate Martin Over 13.5 Points (-120)
Paige Bueckers Over 26.5 Points (-120) and Over 4.5 Assists (-120)
Bueckers is such a joy to watch and such a pain in the ass to try to guard. She truly is a complete player and can wreak havoc on both ends of the floor for opponents. Paired with Aaliyah Edwards, Bueckers can rack up points or assists at will, and she has been during the 2024 Women’s Final Four tournament, averaging 28 points and five assists.
Iowa is also susceptible to both. They ranked 360th in assists allowed per game and 322nd in points allowed. UConn was 14th in the country in points per game at 79.9. Iowa’s bread-and-butter has been to get into shootouts with opponents, and now they face a team with a player who will happily engage in one.
Bueckers doesn’t shoot many threes. (In fact, one fun stat about this matchup is that Bueckers attempted 194 three-pointers this season; Clark made 193 of them.) However, with an eFG% of 60.3, when she does shoot from wherever on the court, she tends to score. I think she cruises past the points line and the absurdly low assists line.
Other UConn Bets:
- Aaliyah Edwards Under 9.5 Rebounds (-110)
- Ashlyn Shade Over 11.5 Points (+105)
Kamilla Cardoso Over 9.5 Rebounds (-105)
It may seem paradoxical to say it’s difficult to find appealing prop bets on South Carolina in the 2024 Women’s Final Four. The undefeated juggernaut heads into tonight’s game against North Carolina State as -900 favorites, a number that just keeps getting bigger as time passes. Coach of the Year Dawn Staley has the machine well-oiled, and nine players averaged 15 minutes or more in every game this season.
Cardoso stands 6’7, but she only averaged 9.4 rebounds per game during the regular season. This line of 9.5 sits right at the break. In the games where she got to 10 or above, she averaged 26.4 minutes of court time. (On the whole, she averaged one rebound every 2.67 minutes.)
NC State ranked 12th in rebounds per game this season, but they ranked 229th in allowing opposing rebounds per game. This should be an area of focus for both teams, and if the game remains even remotely close, I think Cardoso will get to double digits simply because she’ll need to stay on the floor.
The biggest risk to this wager is a blowout, but I think the future WNBA draft pick grabs 10 tonight.
Other South Carolina Bets:
- Raven Johnson Over 4.5 Assists (-120)
- MiLaysia Fulwiley Over 10.5 Points (+100)
Aziaha James Over 18.5 Points (-120)
Aziaha James has introduced herself to the world on a large scale during this year’s tournament. The junior guard has averaged 24.5 points through the first four games, including a dazzling 7-for-9 from three-point range to knock off Texas in the Elite Eight. While five players for the Wolfpack averaged double figures during the regular season, James has ascended to a scoring role on another level.
South Carolina has so few areas that could be even remotely considered a “weakness.†They did allow opposing teams to shoot 20.4 three-point attempts per game and ranked 296th in opposing offensive rebounds. I think James can cover this line, whether the game is close or not. If it does stay close, it will be because of her.
Other NC State Bet: Saniya Rivers Over 2.5 Assists (-140)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: