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2024 NFL Draft Prop Bet Odds & Picks

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The NFL Draft is fun, and this year I'll finally be getting in on ALL the action with mobile sports betting legalized in my area of residence. Below is my regularly updated sheet of prop bets for the 2024 NFL Draft.

Here are my mock drafts thus far, along with my other relevant articles related to this year's Draft and other futures-related NFL content:

My approach to betting on the NFL Draft is to build a portfolio of bets where I focus more on long shots the further we are out from the end of April. We are so limited with information currently that shorter bets are probably being overvalued. Focus on the long shots and build off these bets the closer we get to April 25th.

Here are a few of my favorite 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bets.

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2024 NFL Draft Prop Bet Picks

WR Adonai Mitchell Draft Position under 27.5 (+130 via BetMGM)

Date: April 22

AD Mitchell’s initial draft position opened around 16.5/17.5 where it was hammered up to the current number. The sportsbooks were led to believe that Mitchell was going to be drafted much earlier than his current number suggests. And although I agreed that the 17-draft slot was too high, I love the under at 27.5. We don’t get Buffalo’s pick at No. 28, but Mitchell fits the “X” No. 1 WR archetype. The exact WR skill set that Bills GM Brandon Beane doesn’t want. So I don’t feel bad missing out on the Bills pick.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter was asked on the Establish the Run podcast about Mitchell’s draft position, stating he would project the Texas WR to be drafted lower than the 25-32 draft range. Guys with Mitchell’s intangibles – attitude issues aside – will have some team invest highly in him. The Steelers have shown interest at 20th overall as have the Bengals, Cowboys, Packers, Jets, Colts, Buccaneers and Jaguars.

OT Patrick Paul to be a 1st round pick – (+650 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Date: April 22

In my most recent mock draft (5.0) I listed Houston OT Patrick Paul as the 32nd pick overall to the Chiefs. It’s no guarantee that the WR-needy Chiefs take Paul, but it’s worth noting that Houston tackle has taken several visits with multiple teams from picks 28-33 (49ers, Bills, Chiefs, Panthers and Ravens). And he simply just profiles as a first-round tackle prospect. Paul posted the No. 1 PFF pass-blocking grade in the nation in 2023 (91.5). He’s built like a total mammoth at 6-foot-7 and 331 pounds with arm length in the 97th percentile. He’s very experienced with 5 years under his belt. I’d bet Paul will likely be valued higher by teams that need an immediate improvement at the tackle position versus those taking a long-term approach.

Note that these odds have shortened substantially from +1500 to +1000 down to +650. It’s even shorter on FanDuel (+370). Keep an eye out for his Round 1 prop across other sportsbooks that may be asleep at the wheel.

MarShawn Lloyd To Be First RB Drafted (+1400 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Date: April 22

USC’s Marshawn Lloyd is also rumored to be in the conversation as the RB1 in the class, after a strong pre-draft process. Opened at +600 for the former Trojan to be the first RB drafted on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Per Sportskeeda's NFL Draft Analyst Tony Pauline - many believe that Lloyd will push Benson as the first RB off the board as a major pre-draft riser through the Senior Bowl and NFL Scouting Combine. Lloyd has also ties to current NFL coaches from his time spent at USC with both the Commanders and Chargers. Those teams have a combined 6 picks on Day 2, inside the top 80 selections.

NFL.com draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has MarShawn Lloyd listed as his No. 1 RB in his top-150 rankings. He’s been pretty good at aligning his per-draft rankings with actual RB draft capital. Lloyd is currently listed at +1000 (now up to +1400) to be the first RB selected on FanDuel with Texas RB Jonathon Brooks emerging as the overwhelming favorite days away from the draft.

LB Junior Colson to be a 1st-round pick – (+1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Date: April 22

The 49ers easily could go LB in Round 1 given the current state of their linebacker room. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw will be coming off a torn Achilles that he suffered in the Super Bowl, entering the last year of his contract.

Michigan linebacker Junior Colson has met with some LB-needy teams such as the Buccaneers, Cowboys, Seahawks and Steelers during the pre-draft process. Note that Dallas has the second-shortest odds to select a linebacker with their first pick (+340).

Daniel Jeremiah said on a recent conference call that he wouldn't be surprised if Colson gets drafted in Round 1. Recall that in 2023 no linebacker was projected to go in the first round. Jack Campbell was the first LB selected by the Lions at 18th overall well ahead of his pre-draft position in mock drafts (44th overall). In 2022, two linebackers were drafted in the first round: Quay Walker (22nd by Green Bay) and Devin Lloyd (27th by Jacksonville). Walker beat his pre-draft rank by 11 spots (31 EDP).  It's been back-to-back seasons where a traditional LB has drastically beaten their EDP. And both times it was not even the consensus LB1 in the class.

Colson is not the consensus LB1 in the class. Love his longshot odds to sneak into the backend of Round 1 with the current odds. Colson also has plus odds to be the first LB drafted at +230 on FanDuel.

Also want to point out that the 49ers are polarizing at +5000 to draft a linebacker first on FanDuel. Again, they pick 31st and could even trade back further when LB is more of an appropriate selection.

 

Nate Wiggins To Be Second Cornerback Drafted (+750 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Date: April 22

As I examined in my latest mock draft 5.0, the CB position can become the Wild West in the NFL Draft. Scheme disparities across the board mean teams value/rank cornerbacks much differently than the public, who are ranking them without as much intel specific to the team fit. I feel confident that it will be either Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold who goes No. 1 (likely Mitchell). But as the CB2, I think Arnold might have some competition. Again, he ran a 4.51 (43rd percentile) at the NFL Combine. Although Cooper DeJean is viewed as the CB3 in the betting markets, NFL teams view him more as a safety. DeJean’s fall could be another CB’s gain such as Nate Wiggins.

Wiggins has his "backers" in the drafting industrial complex, given his speed of 4.28. He's underweight at 173 pounds, which could keep him off certain team boards, but it just takes one to have him picked highly. Note that Emmanuel Forbes-166 pounds soaking wet-was the second CB drafted last season ahead of Christian Gonzalez.

Kool-Aid McKinstry To Be Second Cornerback Drafted (+900 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Date: April 22

At the time of this writing, we have five teams in the first round “favored” to take a CB first: Colts (+110), Raiders (+150), Jaguars (-185), Eagles (+125), Lions (+135). And if I had to project any team to draft a CB well ahead of consensus, it would be the Jaguars. Trent Baalke needs his long-armed CBs. The Eagles are also rumored to be in the discussion to trade up for a CB in this year’s draft. Kool-Aid McKinstry’s draft stock has risen since reports that he will be ready for training camp after suffering a Jones fracture per Tony Pauline.

Kool-Aid has met with the Falcons, Eagles, Jaguars, Lions and Steelers. The former Crimson Tide CB has 32-inch arms (70th percentile). Music to the ears of the Jaguars GM.

EDGE Laiatu Latu to be 1st Defensive Lineman/Edge Selected (+200 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Date: April 22

UCLA’s Laiatu Latu is now essentially tied with Dallas Turner to be the 8th overall pick (Falcons) in the betting markets. Odds slightly vary by book, but it’s clear that Dallas Turner no longer has the vice grip as the first defender off the board with Latu and Byron Murphy II gaining steam. Latu has been reportedly medically cleared by most NFL teams, which has given his draft stock a major boost.

But more importantly, Latu is still behind Dallas Turner (-120) to be the first DL/EDGE drafted (+200). Why risk a CB leaping into the conversation when you don’t have to? It’s only +225 for Latu to be the first defensive player selected. Note that I already have hefty bags placed on Murphy to be the first defensive player selected.

Rams: Position of First Drafted Player in 2024 NFL Draft - Wide Receiver (+800 via BetMGM)

Date: April 22

Very early on in the pre-draft process, I took a stand on the LA Rams taking a CB with their first pick. While the betting odds have not moved in my favor, I still firmly stand by them not going with an OL prospect with the 19th overall pick. But given that this is Sean McVay’s first “1st” round-pick – as I wrote about in my mock draft 5.0 – we have to strongly consider this will be an offensive selection. Hence, WR. This also aligns with Les Snead’s track record. He drafted WR Tavon Austin 8th overall. He invested in 2nd-round picks in Van Jefferson and TuTu Atwell. It would hardly be surprising for the Rams to draft another WR given Cooper Kupp’s recent injury woes.

TE Brock Bowers to be a top-10 pick - (+135 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Date: April 22

Brock Bowers won’t fall farther than the Jets at 10th overall. Per Tony Pauline, Bowers is rated as the 5th or 6th highest player on most teams’ boards as the 2nd pass-catcher BEHIND Marvin Harrison Jr. Pauline agrees that the Georgia product won’t fall past Gang Green with LAC, TEN, CHI also targeting the tight end prospect. Bowers is listed at +110 to be drafted by the Jets on ESPN Bet (top-10 his odds are longer at +120). Go figure.

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