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2024 NFL Futures Bets: AFC Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

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The Kansas City Chiefs had +300 odds in the preseason to win the AFC and represent the conference in this year’s Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the team they beat in the conference championship, the Baltimore Ravens, had +1000 odds, making the Chiefs and Ravens two of four teams (the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals were the others) with +1000 odds or shorter before the season began. Thus, it is not necessarily a bad thing to back preseason favorites, especially if they help cash winning futures tickets.

A lot will change between now and the start of next season, as the NFL Draft has yet to take place and several key players will alter teams’ outlooks in free agency. However, we will do our best prognosticating as we offer a trio of best bets to win the AFC in the 2024 season, which include some favorites and one long shot play.

2024-25 AFC Championship Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

TEAM ODDS
Kansas City Chiefs +400
Buffalo Bills +475
Baltimore Ravens +475
Cincinnati Bengals +700
Miami Dolphins +950
Houston Texans +1200
Los Angeles Chargers +1300
New York Jets +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars +1700

2024 NFL Futures Bets: AFC Championship Picks & Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs (+400)

Is this a boring and painfully obvious pick? Maybe. But +400 odds are awfully generous for a team that has made the AFC Championship Game in all six seasons Patrick Mahomes has been the starting quarterback, and key pieces like tight end Travis Kelce and head coach Andy Reid have already declared they will be back next season.

The Chiefs have won eight straight AFC West titles, and have used that dominance over their division to inflate their playoff seeding and host the AFC Championship Game five times in the last six years. There was concern that Mahomes and the Chiefs would waver when finally having to play on the road in the playoffs, but they beat the AFC’s top two seeds, the Bills and Ravens in back-to-back weeks, with arguably the worst roster they have had with Mahomes under center. Mahomes no longer has Tyreek Hill to take the top off of defenses, and that resulted in a career-low 6.8 average target depth throughout the regular season, which lowered to 5.9 and 6.4 in wins over the Ravens and 49ers in the final two games. Mahomes’ receivers also led the league in drops, and was the team’s leading rusher in the Super Bowl victory. But none of that mattered, as he became just the fifth quarterback in NFL history with three or more Super Bowl wins, and the second to do so before the age of 29.

We have full trust in Kansas City’s front office to provide Mahomes with the proper pieces to make sure the offense continues to reach new heights. And given how successful they have been on forming this dynasty, we would not be surprised to see free agents flock to the Chiefs, even taking pay cuts to do so if necessary.

Cincinnati Bengals (+700)

The Cincinnati Bengals are the first of our two AFC champion picks for next season that did not make the playoffs this year, but them being firmly entrenched in the top four of all futures odds leaderboards suggest the future is bright with Joe Burrow healthy under center all season.

Cincinnati finished 9-8 and knocked on the door of playoff contention despite getting just 10 games out of Burrow. The Bengals’ winning record looks even more impressive when considering they played in an AFC North where all four teams finished over .500, and three made the playoffs. Unlike the other two teams on this list, the Bengals have some serious financial decisions to mull over, like whether or not to place the franchise tag on wide receiver Tee Higgins, and fellow wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase being eligible for an extension. However, Cincinnati is also in a good spot with with sixth-most projected cap space for next season, and picking 18th in the draft should also help them sure up their offensive line woes.

It will be difficult to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC, but Joe Burrow is one of two quarterbacks (Tom Brady is the other) to have beaten Patrick Mahomes in the playoff, and the bar is still high if No. 9 can stay healthy all season.

Los Angeles Chargers (+1300)

The Los Angeles Chargers have long been considered one of the most talented teams in the AFC, but their shortcomings were often pinned on head coach Brandon Staley and his questionable in-game decisions. Those questions are no longer relevant after firing Staley and hiring Jim Harbaugh coming off a national championship at Michigan.

Harbaugh has a long track record of improving his teams wherever he has been. The Chargers are coming off a season where they went 5-12 (.594 win percentage). The year before Harbaugh got to Michigan, it had a .417 winning percentage, but improved to .781 under Harbaugh. Similarly, the 49ers went from .375 the year before Harbaugh arrived to .688 in his tenure, while Stanford improved from .083 to .580, and San Diego from .800 to .829. It may take time for him to make a significant impact like that in Los Angeles, but the cupboard is certainly not bare with plenty of talent at several positions, namely at quarterback with Justin Herbert.

We have little doubt that the defensive-minded Harbaugh will help improve a Chargers defense that finished 28th in total defense last year. And just two short years ago, Los Angeles had a 27-0 first half lead in its first playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but were then victim of the third-largest comeback in playoff history. Who knows what could have been in that season for the Chargers, and despite not having great odds to win their division being in the AFC West with Kansas City, we respect Harbaugh’s history of accomplishing changes in culture, and are willing to bite at the +1300 odds that he accomplishes that in one short year with the Chargers.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archiveand follow him @MikeSpector01.

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