2024 NFL Futures: Erickson’s Top Odds, Picks & Predictions

Let's dive into the 2024 NFL futures market and explore the exciting possibilities for the upcoming season. In this article, we'll cover a range of topics related to the NFL Futures in the betting space.

• Super Bowl 59 Winner: Ah, the pinnacle of every NFL season - the Super Bowl. We'll visit the latest Super Bowl odds to predict which teams have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in 2025.
• AFC/NFC Conference Winners: Which teams will dominate their conferences and earn the right to battle it out for the ultimate prize? We’ll analyze the odds and conditions favoring the top contenders in both the AFC and NFC.
• Division Winners: Breaking down each division to forecast which teams are positioned to come out on top. From perennial powerhouses to potential surprise packets, we examine the dynamics that could lead to divisional triumphs.
• To Make the Playoffs or to Miss the Playoffs: Every season, surprises abound as underdogs rise and favorites falter. We'll delve into the odds and offer insights on which teams are likely to exceed expectations and which might disappoint.
• Player Futures: MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year: In 2023, I nailed Lamar Jackson at +1600 to win MVP. The man single-handedly is paying for my wedding suit.
• Rookie Awards: Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Pass Yards/Receiving Yards Leaders: The 2024 rookies are here to make a mark. Who will stand out in their first year? We'll look at the top drafted talents and their potential impact on the field.
• Stat Leaders: Pass, Rush and Receiving Yards, Player O/Us: The battle for statistical supremacy is always intense. We'll forecast which stars will lead the league in major statistical categories and analyze over/unders for key players.
• Regular Season Win Totals: Team performance can often be distilled into one ultimate metric: wins. We’ll provide predictions on over/under win totals, offering a clear view of who might overachieve or underperform this season.
• Coach of the Year: Who can do the most...with the least?

So, buckle up, football fans! The 2024 NFL season promises drama, surprises and unforgettable moments. Whether you're a die-hard offseason bettor or just love getting the value before lines move, this article will be page one of your NFL Futures playbook for the 2024 season.

• Updated NFL Conference Winner Odds
• Updated NFL Division Winner Odds
• Updated NFL Season Win Total Odds
• Updated NFL To Make the Playoffs Odds

2024 NFL Futures: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted

Super Bowl Winner: Cincinnati Bengals (+1400 BetMGM)

Buy the injury discount. The Bengals were low-key winners during the 2024 offseason by retaining Tee Higgins on the franchise tag and by drafting sharply in the 2024 NFL Draft. They addressed major team needs at OT, WR, DL and TE with the selections of RT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, DT McKinnley Jackson and TE Erick All.

They will face a last-place Strength of Schedule (SOS) after finishing fourth in the AFC North last season. Overall, their forecasted strength of schedule based on Vegas Win Totals per Sharp Football is the sixth-easiest schedule compared to the 32nd-ranked schedule they faced last season. No team has a larger gap in last year's SOS versus this year's projection than Cincinnati.

Joe Burrow's salary cap hit is less than $30M in 2024 compared to over $45M every season following from 2025 and beyond. They are ready to push their chips in for the 2024 season.

The defense can only improve after last season after finishing 23^rd in DVOA after being devasted by key injuries. They were seventh and 16^th the two years prior under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. They lost DT D.J. Reader in free agency but a signed Sheldon Rankins to address the defensive line in addition to the two rookies they drafted.

Simply put: a healthier Bengals team can give the Chiefs a run for their money in the AFC.

The Bengals and Chiefs have met in the AFC Championship games twice over the past three seasons. There's a good chance we'll see them continue the collision course at the end of the 2024-2025 season. Given Cincy's easier regular season schedule compared to the other AFC powerhouses (Bills, Chiefs, Ravens), I like their odds of getting back to the Super Bowl at 14-1 odds and winning the AFC at +750 (BetMGM)

The Ravens have the 29^th-ranked SOS, and the Bills have the 23^rd-ranked SOS. KC has the easiest among the non-Bengals AFC powerhouses at 12^th (similar to last season). The Chiefs are never a bad "bet" to invest in multiple markets with QB Patrick Mahomes +650 to take home the MVP and the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (+600). Given the track record and the chance for a three-peat, it’s hard to imagine not making money with a 2024-2025 Chiefs' season-long ticket that you can either cash out or hedge against during the end of the year.

Still, I can’t help but look for longer-shot odds with the Bengals.

The Joe Burrow-led Bengals are 5-1 versus the Bills and Chiefs since 2021 (including postseason).

The Bengals were listed at +1100 odds last season to win the Super Bowl.

I bet them then and will bet them now at longer odds.

I also love them as division underdogs to the Ravens at +170 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Every year we see a team go from first to last in the divisional standings. Cincy is my best bet to be “that” team in 2024. They have a much easier SOS than the Ravens, who still have some question marks on their roster even after the NFL Draft.

MVP: Joe Burrow (+1000 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Jalen Hurts (+2000 FanDuel Sportsbook)

MVP comes down to two simple principles: the best quarterback on the team with the best record.

Currently, the teams with the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (with high O/U win totals) while boasting an easier (top-12) SOS include the Chiefs (11.5 O/U), Bengals (10.5 O/U), Eagles (10.5 O/U), Dolphins (9.5 O/U), Bears (8.5 O/U) and Chargers (8.5 O/U).

The Bengals and Eagles are the only two teams with top-10 SOS that also have win totals set at 10.5 wins.

After that, it's the Chiefs, 49ers, Packers and Lions with the next easiest schedules. Green Bay has a high O/U set at 10.5 games at +130 toward the over. Jordan Love is 14-1 to win the MVP.

In 2023, the Bengals' O/U win total was at 11.5, tied with the Chiefs for the highest in the NFL. Cincinnati has averaged 11.5 wins in Burrow's two fully healthy seasons. He has a 65% win rate over the last three seasons.

Lamar Jackson had the shortest odds among QBs to win the OPOY Award a year ago. QBs usually don't win this award, but it's worth noting that the QB that opened with the shortest odds to win OPOY was Jalen Hurts. His 2024 MVP odds at +2000 are eerily similar to Jackson's from last year (+1600).  You don't need to squint too hard to see the Eagles bouncing back after a major stumble in the second half of last season. I love them at +750 (ESPN Bet) to take home the NFC crown and at +130 (DraftKings) to win the division pitted against Dallas (who has done little to improve this offseason) at identical odds.

Hurts has an elite offensive line and high-end playmakers around him at RB, WR and TE. He should also be recovered from the injuries that he sustained last season. The Eagles brought in Kellen Moore as the new OC. They brought in Vic Fangio as the new DC, and improved their secondary drastically during the 2024 NFL Draft with the additions of Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell. Keep in mind that the Eagles were the 4th-most injured defense last year.

They should win a ton of games in a weak NFC. Hurts also finished second in the MVP voting in 2022, so he is a name that votes feel comfortable casting their votes for.

Offensive Player of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase (+1200)

Don't think you need to overthink this one, folks. In three of the last five seasons, the winner of AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year has been a WR that led the NFL in receiving yards. The only exceptions were during Derrick Henry's 2,000-yard campaign and in 2023 with Christian McCaffrey. Still, we all know WR Tyreek Hill was a sure-fire bet to win the award last season had he not gotten hurt toward the end of the year.

Ja'Marr Chase owns the fourth-shortest odds of being the OPOY in 2024 (+1300). During his last seven games played with Burrow in 2023 (when Burrow was mostly healthy), Chase was on pace for 143 catches, 1,824 yards and 12 TDs. Given how involved Chase is in the Bengals offense which still has major question marks at running back), he has the chance to flirt with bonkers receiving and TD numbers.

He is listed at +900 (DraftKings) to lead the NFL in receiving yards.

Burrow has the 6^th-shortest odds to lead the NFL in passing yards (+850), which lends itself to Chase having an absolutely monster 2024 campaign. Burrow has ranked inside the top three in passing yards per game twice in the last three seasons. He ranked second in passing yards per game (280) in 2022. And despite the injuries last season, Burrow STILL ranked second in pass attempts per game.

I would also like to highlight Amon-Ra St. Browns' ludicrous 25-1 odds to win this award. He was third in receiving yards last season in just 16 games played. The Sun God is the engine of the Lions offense and isn’t getting the respect he deserves in the betting market for a Super Bowl contender in the NFC.

For even longer shot odds, Brandon Aiyuk is super intriguing at +15000 on Caesars Sportsbook. He finished seventh in receiving yards last season and ninth in receiving yards per game (84), the same as A.J. Brown. If one of the other "Big Three" 49ers players gets hurt (or Deebo Samuel is traded) Aiyuk could explode, given his elite talent. The 49ers were fourth in passing yards in 2023. Note that the 49ers were the second-healthiest offense last season. They won’t be as fortunate when it comes to injuries in 2024.

Defensive Player of the Year: Aidan Hutchinson (+1600 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Everybody that won DPOY votes in 2022 (besides Sauce Gardner and Minkah Fitzpatrick) posted 12-plus sacks. The same sentiment was held in 2023, with the top four leaders in DPOY posting at least 14 or more sacks.

We had a defensive back (DaRon Bland) record nine INTs (five for TDs) and he got one vote. TLC said it best not to chase waterfalls, but let's be real here. Don't go chasing defensive backs with the DPOY award.

The winner in two of the last three seasons has posted 18-plus sack totals.

The path for the DPOY is through sack production, which naturally comes as a bonus by playing for a winning team. More leads, more pass-rush snaps, etc.

Last season, I was on the Aidan Hutchinson train, along with some longer shot bets on Josh Allen (Jaguars) and Jaelan Phillips.

Allen had 19 sacks, Hutchinson had 11 and Philips had seven sacks in just eight games. I was on the pulse of many of the top-end sack producers at longer shot odds, but it wasn't enough to overcome the name brands of Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons. But I felt my process was overall sound to unearth

Aside from the raw sack production, I will look to aim at a defensive player who plays on a team without a star QB this year. This gives voters a reason to vote for this defender because they are not giving credit to the team's offense as much. Watt and Garrett got steam because their impacts were larger due to their teams' lack of QB star power.

Therefore, Hutchinson is right back at the top of my betting board at 16-1 odds. Nobody is going to vote for Jared Goff to win anything. Hutchinson left sack production on the table last season, finishing second in total pressures (101) but 18^th in sack production. The production started come later on, considering he had eight sacks in his last five games played.

The other names that stand out in terms of players due for larger sack totals include the reigning winner of the DROY, Houston Texans edge rusher, Will Anderson Jr. He only had eight sacks last season despite generating the most pressure on his defense. His teammates, Jonathan Greenard and Maliek Collins combined for 21 sacks on fewer pressures individually. Anderson Jr. had five sacks over his last six games.

The only concern for Anderson Jr. is the helium level of the C.J. Stroud/Texans hype might be too much for him to overcome. Still, the odds are great at +3000 on BetMGM, given he can easily flirt with 15-plus sacks on a high-profile team. Also, he's already in voters' minds after winning DROY in 2023.

Josh Sweat also underwhelmed in the sack column despite finishing 15^th in total pressures. With Haason Reddick replaced by Bryce Huff (Jets-Eagles swap) and Vic Fangio entering as the DC, the sack numbers could pile up quickly for Sweat. I love his longshot odds at +15000 in a similar way to how we approached Josh Allen last season. He signed a restructured contract with $10 million guaranteed (a max of $13 million of incentives) this offseason with Philly.

I also like them for his teammate, second-year DT Jalen Carter (+7500 DraftKings). One of these players could post monster sack numbers in the Fangio scheme. Voters are also well aware of Carter's abilities, given he finished narrowly behind Anderson Jr. in the DROY voting in 2023.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jayden Daniels (+700 ESPN Bet)

The last three QB ROY winners - Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and C.J. Stroud - combined for a 20-25-1 record (43%). Murray averaged just 232 passing yards per game but averaged 34 yards per game rushing. Murray also beat out a 1st-round rookie 1,000-yard rusher in Josh Jacobs and 1,000-yard receiver A.J. Brown en route to the 2019 OROY award with 53% of the votes. Kliff Kingsbury was his head coach.

Herbert gained 82% of the votes in 2020, despite a 1,400-yard campaign by Justin Jefferson

Last year, Stroud was flawless and completely dusted Puka Nacua with 98% of the votes - despite the WR breaking several rookie records.

Simply put, you’re betting into an uphill battle going away from a rookie QB for a positional player in this market more times than not. And given the strengths of this class at QB, I don’t feel the need to go crazy off the board.

Considering these factors, No.2 overall pick, Jayden Daniels, stands out as my favorite longshot bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in a quarterback-driven betting market at 7-to-1 odds.

We saw back in 2019, that Kingsbury unlocked Murray's dual-threat ability en route to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award. In any other draft cycle, Daniels would have been a sure-fire bet to be the No. 1 overall pick. While I heavily agree that supplanting Caleb Williams as the favorite will be tough for Daniels to overcome, he has the requisite skill set to do so.

I would say that I much prefer betting Williams (+100) and J.J. McCarthy (+350) to pass for more yards than Daniels. It’s listed at +115 on ESPN Bet for Williams to lead all rookie QBs in passing yards. Both have better supporting casts at WR and are less likely to rely on their legs as much as Daniels will in Year 1.

The only QB with a higher rushing yardage projection than Daniels is Lamar Jackson.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Laiatu Latu  (+650 ESPN Bet)

Given the lack of superb talent on the defensive side of the ball in this year's draft, I think it's best to hit on longer-shot odds in this particular market. A la fade Vikings edge rusher Dallas Turner as the betting favorite yet again, as we did during the 2024 NFL Draft.

Laiatu Latu at +650 has the second-shortest odds, but he's NFL-ready and probably should be the favorite over Turner with the potential for instant sack production. The last 4 of 5 DROY have been highly drafted pass-rushers. And the last four were the first pass-rushers drafted in their respective drafts.

We've seen CBs and LBs also win this award in the past, usually based on high-counting stats like tackles and interceptions.

Shaq Leonard led the NFL in tackles in 2018. Luke Kuechly did the same when he won the award.

In weaker pass-rush classes we saw later first-round picks like Aaron Donald and Sheldon Richardson win as defensive tackles. But it is still driven by sack production.

Therefore, I still firmly back Latu as the first edge (and defensive player selected) in this year's draft to take home this award.

The Colts already have a surplus of strong interior defenders such as Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner and Raekwon Davis which should allow Latu to pin his ears back and get after opposing QBs. The Colts should also be a pretty high-market team, so voters will be paying strong attention to the 15^th overall pick. Per the FantasyPros projections, the Colts DST leads all teams in projected sacks.

As for longer shots, I much prefer Terrion Arnold (+1200) at CB to Quinyon Mitchell. Arnold projects to play more in Year 1 given the Lions have less depth at CB compared to the Eagles. The newest Detroit Lions CB comes with an Alabama pedigree and ball-hawking skills to boot that should help him generate interceptions. Arnold finished 3rd in the nation in pass breakups (13) and interceptions (5) last season.

Per the FantasyPros projections, the Lions DST leads all teams in projected interceptions.

Although I much prefer going straight to Seattle Seahawks DT Byron Murphy II, who I viewed as the best defender in this year's class. The plan with him under new head coach and defensive mastermind, Mike Macdonald, is to put him into the Justin Madubuike role. Madubuike had 14 sacks this past season under Macdonald in Baltimore - tied for the most of any defensive tackle in 2023.

Murphy's odds of being the defensive rookie of the year are listed at +1400 (FanDuel Sportsbook).

Coach of the Year: Dave Canales (+2000 BetMGM)

I find the coaching of the year award requirements somewhat irritating. You're looking for the coach who does the most with the least to work with at his disposal. Usually, it also pairs with a coach helping the progress of a young or retread quarterback. The latter happened last season with Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski overcoming injuries with Joe Flacco to lead the Browns to the playoffs. Although he narrowly beat head coach DeMeco Ryans, who brought the Texans back from the dead in his first year as the head coach.

The team also wins more games than the previous year (or just exceeds expectations).

Dave Canales is a name that comes to mind for me, given the low (I mean like the core of the Earth low) expectations of the Carolina Panthers franchise. But Canales has had the "Midas touch" in his last two landing spots, specifically getting the best out of quarterbacks ie Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.

I should note that although Trevor Lawrence did not get love from votes in the Comeback Player of the Year award in the post-Urban Meyer era, Doug Pederson was recognized with several votes for coach of the year after taking over Jacksonville in 2022. We could see Canales get similar love from the voters if he can right the ship in Carolina. The roster is vastly improved and Carloina should benefit from much better injury luck in 2024. Last year they were the 3rd-most injured team. 31st on defense and 27th on offense.

Kevin O'Connell (+2500) is also interesting given he should get some "credit" for any offensive success that the team enjoys under rookie QB, J.J. McCarthy. However, I followed this methodology with Kyle Shanahan at +4000 odds last season to no avail (somehow).

Comeback Player of the Year: Daniel Jones (+2500)

I don't like getting my money tied up in such a tough market, especially after what happened last season. Damar Hamlin's situation was extremely rare as a heavy favorite all off-season. And to make matters worse, Hamlin ultimately fell short of winning the Comeback Player of the Year award at the elite arm of Joe Flacco, who played five regular season games for the Browns. QBs have won this award every year since 2018 between Flacco, Geno Smith, Joe Burrow, Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck. The common theme is a QB coming off a major injury (that also made the playoffs after missing the year previously) which is mostly reflected in the betting markets. The order of shortest odds from the favorite is Aaron Rodgers, Burrow, Kirk Cousins, and Richardson. They are all on teams that did not make the playoffs in 2023.

However, the other theme that has to be noted is a QB coming "back" from a bad situation with one team to success with a new team. Had it not been for the adverse circumstances last year, Baker Mayfield would/should have easily won this award in 2023.

So, I think the best way to attack this market is to look for a QB situation (not necessarily injury) for a QB to come back (and make the playoffs) with the longest odds.

Daniel Jones at +2500 is being vastly overlooked as it's twofold between a situation and injury that he needs to come back from. It's 100% sink or swim for the Giants QB in what might be his final year in New York.

The concern is the Giants making the playoffs with the third-shortest odds to do so (+425). But if Jones is truly worthy of the award, we could see Big Blue sneak in as they did in 2022 with a 9-7-1 record (3^rd in the NFC).

Justin Herbert at +2500 is also interesting given he's also coming off an injury after a disastrous 2023 season with the Chargers. And LA has the highest odds of making the playoffs at -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook) and -105 (FanDuel Sportsbook). My hesitation is the injury he had last year might not be enough to convince voters, and Herbert is already very good. If there’s any hesitance about “what is he coming back from” then it’s probably not worth it. Also, the credit going to Harbaugh might make it tough for Herbert to win any awards himself.

Bryce Young (+6000) also initially caught my attention, but Trevor Lawrence got zero comeback player of the year buzz after his disastrous rookie year under Urban Meyer. He was picked No. 1 overall, so I am not sure the voters will necessarily view him in the "comeback player of the year" archetype.

Justin Fields (+4000) is the one that I think is the most interesting. Essentially "written off" by the league in full Geno Smith fashion, who better to take home the award in 2024 than another Russell Wilson successor? The Steelers are +170 to make the postseason, and it could easily be fueled by a strong finish by Fields in the second half of the season. And imagine Fields going from Week 1 kick returner to starting QB? That’s a comeback like no other.

Drew Lock (+10000) to win Comeback Player of the Year is by far my most galaxy-brain play - so far - of the NFL offseason. Again this is “bonus bet” territory.

I discussed Daniel Jones and the Giants situation earlier, but what if Lock were able to usurp Jones as QB1 in New York?

Many believe that Lock has a shot to compete and push Jones for the starting job. The former second-round pick might have early opportunities in the spring with Jones coming back slower than expected from his torn ACL in Week 8.

During the 2024 NFL Draft, the Giants didn't believe that after Drake Maye the other rookie QBs were much better than Lock. Lock initially wanted to be with the Giants because he was told he would be given the opportunity to compete for the starting job.

Aside from injury, Lock checks off a lot of boxes for a COPY candidate should he beat out Jones and raise the level of QB play for the Giants. If we could see stretches of solid QB play from Tommy DeVito, we could easily see some from Lock.

It's very Geno Smith-esque, who Lock played the last 2 seasons with as a member of the Seahawks.

We want to keep in mind that this market is HEAVILY influenced by how players finish the season. That’s why I am leaning in the Fields/Lock direction for longshots as QBs who could become their team’s starters in the second half, with playoff berths on the horizon.

Division Winners: Indianapolis Colts (+340 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Colts won 9 games in Shane Steichen's first year as the head coach after losing their starting quarterback. They finished 10^th in points scored and smashed their preseason 6.5 wins total. The defense is what killed them in the W-L column (28^th in points allowed). They are bringing back the majority of their key contributors from last season, but with additional firepower on both sides of the football. They drafted edge Laiatu Latu and WR Adonai Mitchell. Cornerback remains the one true question mark, but otherwise, the roster is solid with a lot of upside to upset a weaker AFC South and win the division.

They have the easiest path of resistance in the South compared to the Texans, Titans and Jaguars. The Colts boast the 7^th easiest SOS. The Jaguars are 14^th, but Tennessee and Houston rank in the bottom-7 worst schedules.

I also love their +165 odds to make the playoffs (BetMGM) given the favorable schedule.

New York Jets (+240 BetMGM)

The OL is improved and the rest of the AFC East is dwindling. The Jets are ALL IN on their 40-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers fresh off the Achilles injury. With a 100% healthy Breece Hall acting as the engine of the offense and a defense that looks top-5 on paper, New York can supplant the Bills at +240 odds in the division. They have the 4th-easiest schedule in the NFL this season based on forecasted win totals. And they will almost surely get better injury luck after finishing 31st in adjusted games lost to injuries in 2023 per FTN.

Win Totals

Arizona Cardinals over 6.5 wins (-130)

Kyler Murray has a 43% winning percentage, equivalent to just under 8 wins in an 18-game season. He is 50-1 odds to win MVP.

The Cardinals are getting zero credit for back-to-back strong drafts and finally having a healthy Murray available for the entire season. I don’t think the plucky Cardinals -should be bucketed together with the other 6.5-win total teams such as the Commanders, Giants, Raiders, Titans and Vikings. Their defense finished 30th in adjusted games lost due to injuries last season.

Los Angeles Chargers over 8.5 wins (-144 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Chargers are pretty enticing in the betting space. If Justin Herbert gets the right coaching and offensive pieces around him under Jim Harbaugh, this team could turn things around rather quickly. Herbert is +1400 to win the MVP, which I don't love, so I'd rather bite the bullet on LAC +5000 to win the Super Bowl.

But my favorite bet will be on the "over" on their win totals, as they are due for positive regression based on finishing under their win totals number for four consecutive seasons. The line is set at 8.5 and the over is -144. Harbaugh won at least 8 games in all four seasons as the 49ers head coach (11-plus in first three seasons in Santa Clara). He’s hung a 70%-win rate which is equivalent to 12.5 wins.

In addition to the Chargers, the other teams with 8.5-win totals are the Colts, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, LA Rams, Browns and Steelers. Antony Richardson is 40-1 to win MVP.

The Chargers are also -115 to make the playoffs, which I think is great value given their second-easiest forecasted strength of schedule.

To Make Playoffs

Carolina Panthers (+1000 BetMGM)

Per Sharp Football, 10 of the 15 teams with the easiest schedules made the playoffs in 2023 (67%).

The Panthers have the 10^th-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2024. They are listed at +1000 to make the postseason. The implied probability of them making the postseason based on the odds (11%) hardly reflects the rate at which teams with above-average schedules make the playoffs.

The Panthers play in arguably the worst division in the NFL, and the NFC conference has a lower bar to surpass to make the postseason. The team improved Bryce Young's situation tenfold during the offseason with new coaches and personnel. And the defense is underrated, after allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game last season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+122 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Jaguars were teed up last season to take the AFC South. They were the heavy betting favorites to start the offseason and were 8-3 at the start of December with two of their three losses against the teams that played in the Super Bowl. They lost the remaining 5 of 6 games and missed the playoffs entirely. Christian Kirk missed all those games after getting hurt in Week 13’s OT loss to the Bengals. Trevor Lawrence played through a high ankle sprain, concussion and shoulder A/C joint sprain. He missed only one game, but was clearly not operating even close to 100%. The Jacksonville OL was also not at 100%. Cam Robinson missed Weeks 12-16. Ezra Cleveland missed games between Weeks 7-14. Walker Little missed Week 14.

The Jaguars were “the” hype team entering last year’s offseason, but they have been replaced by the C.J. Stroud Houston Texans. Buy the dip and admit we were just a year too early with the Jags.

To Miss Playoffs 

Houston Texans (+150 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Of the 17 teams with the hardest schedules, only 4 made the postseason (3 of which came from the AFC North). 24% hit rate. The Houston Texans have the 7^th-most difficult schedule in 2024 after facing the 6^th-easiest schedule in 2023. No team has a more difficult jump in SOS than the Texans do in 2024. And they have a relatively new roster in 2024 with the 4^th-highest turn over roster rate in the NFL. Houston will go from being on the hunt to the hunted in 2024. I also like the under on their 9.5 wins total (+120).

From a betting perspective, I think there's more value in fading the Texans holistically in favor of other teams, especially in the AFC South.

Most Regular Season Passing Yards: Trevor Lawrence (+2500)

The Jaguars QB ranked 5^th in passing attempts per game (35.3) and 9^th in passing yards per game last season (251).  But what's most noteworthy is he ranked first in the NFL in expected passing yards per game (260). With big-play threats such as Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis entering the fold, we could see Trevor Lawrence throw for a boatload of yards in 2024.

Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards: Brian Thomas Jr. (+1800 FanDuel)

As tempting as it is to chase Xavier Worthy at +1200 (FanDuel) to lead all rookies in receiving yards, I am going to correlate my love for Trevor Lawrence with Brian Thomas Jr. to lead all rookies in receiving yards at +1800. He’s a big-play first-round pick that could see a large opportunity in the Jaguars’ pass-happy offense. If the former LSU WR can absorb the role vacated by Calvin Ridley – nearly 1,800 air yards, 22.5% target share, 36% air yards share, NFL leader in EZ targets, WR10 in expected fantasy points per game – Thomas will be one of the best rookies WR targets in fantasy football. Note that Ridley and the recently released Zay Jones combined for 200 targets last season. Considering Gabe Davis has never commanded 100 targets in a single season, Thomas is looking at close to at least 100-plus targets in the Jaguars offense. That's a very encouraging benchmark for a rookie WR - given every rookie in the last few years to hit that threshold has drastically exceeded expectations and finished at least top-4 in receiving yards among rookie WRs.

In the FantasyPros Projections, BTJ ranks third among rookie WRs in projected receiving yards.

Most Regular Season Rushing Yards: Jonathan Taylor (+550)

Jonathan Taylor has the second-shortest odds at +550, and it’s hard to argue against him. He ranked  4th in rushing yards per game in 2023. And that was considering he came back late and split carries at times with Zack Moss. He also didn’t play any full games with Anthony Richardson, whose mobility should further unlock JT as a rusher. The FantasyPros Projections have him for nearly 270 carries, which ranks 1st in the NFL.

Breece Hall at +800 is also interesting given is one of just 10 RBs that project for at least 235 carries per the FantasyPros consensus projections. However, my concern is how great Hall is in the receiving game, which could influence his rushing totals.

Raiders RB Zamir White is super intriguing at +5000. He is in the driver's seat as the early down RB1 for Las Vegas after he showed out last season filling in for an injured Josh Jacobs. In White's four starts, he averaged 14.1 fantasy points (right outside the top-12 in half-PPR) and just under 100 rushing yards per game while logging just under 70% of the offensive snaps and 23+ touches per game. Over 1,500 rushing yards pace.

Works in his favor that Antonio Pierce is returning as the head coach and Luke Getsy is stepping in as the OC. Las Vegas also bolstered its IOL with Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson.

Player Props (O/U)

Johnathon Brooks under 775.5 rushing yards (-110)

Coming off a torn ACL, the Panthers do not need to rush their rookie RB back into action with capable veterans still on the roster between Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard. He is projected for 698 rushing yards.

D’Andre Swift under 850.5 rushing yards (-150)

Last season was the first that Swift played 16 games and rushed for over 650 yards. No single Bears RB surpassed 620 rushing yards in 2023. He is projected for 770 rushing yards.

Zack Moss under 850.5 rushing yards (-130)

Zack Moss has never rushed for more than 800 rushing yards any season during his four-year career. An inefficient tiger doesn’t change his stripes even if he is a Bengal. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Moss lose the job outright to Chase Brown. Note that in Burrow’s last healthy season (2022), Joe Mixon rushed for just 826 yards in 15 games played. His projection is 762.3 rushing yards.