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2024 Pennzoil 400: NASCAR at Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Writing about racing is a lot like racing itself; It’s competitive, and you want to be the best.

I was reminded of that this week, as I went 0-4 as a finalist in the Fantasy Sports Writing Association Awards, including for the 2023 Fantasy Racing Writer of the Year. Truthfully, it was an honor just to be nominated across both sports I cover, but it’s still hard not to get down on yourself for coming up just short.

Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch know the feeling after finishing three-wide with Daniel Suarez last week at Atlanta and losing by 0.003 and 0.007 seconds, respectively. Rubbing salt in the wound, I was also riding the 16-1 outright on Busch.

Yet, time passes, and we press forward to the next green flag, hardened by each near victory. Luckily, there’s no better place to go when moving on than Sin City, NASCAR’s next stop on their 38-stop tour.

Much unlike the city it resides in, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is fairly predictable. It’s truly the first time this year that motorsports bettors can feel confident taking off the training wheels and diving in with heavy unit allocation.

Here’s the data I considered for the Pennzoil 400:

  • 2023 Las Vegas I & II (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
  • 2022 Las Vegas I & II (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
  • High-Speed 1.5-Mile Comp Tracks (Finishes & total speed rankings*)

*via ifantasyrace.com

Ready for a weekend full of racing at the first mile-and-a-half of the season, let’s dive into my betting card for the 2024 Pennzoil 400.

2024 Pennzoil 400: NASCAR at Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Predictions

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless noted | 2024 NASCAR: +13.21u

Both Top 10: Christopher Bell & Denny Hamlin (+130) | 1.5u

With a usually juiced T10 market at mile-and-halfs, Caesars Sportsbook is now offering a variety of combo placements. I’m about it, especially those involving Christopher Bell. The 29-year-old has become an elite driver at the high-speed mile-and-a-halfs, pacing fifth in combined total speed rankings at them last season.

He finished fourth in this race a year ago and second in the latest running in the fall. While Kyle Larson ultimately won last time here in Las Vegas, it was Bell who led the field in the total speed rankings and speed late in a run.

Track position matters more than almost anything at Las Vegas, and Christopher Bell knows how to get it, winning the pole twice in the four Next-Gen era races here. Despite the new Toyota body raising questions around the industry, I’m confidently backing Bell and his Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) teammate Denny Hamlin.

The 23XI owner hasn’t been as dominant as Bell in the Next Gen Era (fifth in the total speed rankings), but has still finished P10, P11 and P5 in the three races where he hasn’t had mechanical issues. Barring that, Hamlin is always a threat to win and a usual T10 finisher at the high-speed mile-and-halfs, placing second in last season’s combined total speed rankings.

I’d be willing to pay close to even money for this duo to finish near the front on Sunday; +130 is a gift.

All Top 10: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell & Ross Chastain (+225) | 1.5u

We’ll continue to “Ring the Bell” here in this combo placement, now adding heavy race-favorite (+450) Larson and the always-daring Ross Chastain to the equation.

For Larson, he is that heavy of a favorite for a reason. He is legitimately No. 1 in nearly every impactful loop data metric from the fall race and No. 1 in both the Las Vegas Next Gen total speed rankings and high-speed mile-and-a-halfs total speed rankings. Larson has two runner-up finishes and a victory over his last three finished races here. The multi-disciplined driver is also the all-time leader in average starting position (7.33) at Las Vegas. There is no such thing as a lock in racing, but a Larson T10 is about as close as it gets.

While Chastain doesn’t have nearly the Las Vegas accolades as Larson, he’s been damn fast here since joining Trackhouse Racing. “The Melon Man” is third in the Las Vegas Next Gen total speed rankings and has finishes of fifth, 12th, second and third in that span.

Wrecks and mechanical issues happen, making any three-leg motorsports have some level of risk. However, I’m willing to roll the dice on three of the top drivers at Las Vegas in recent years.

Group H: Austin Cindric (+195) | .6u

vs. Austin Dillon (+200), John-Hunter Nemechek (+250) & Josh Berry (+300)

We successfully faded Austin Cindric in a matchup against the race-winning Suarez last week, but the No. 2 car still had speed, finishing fourth. While I’m not sure if it’s truly a sign of things to come for the now third-year Cup Series veteran, I’ll ride with him at least through Vegas. Cindric finished sixth in this race last year and is fourth all-time in starting position here (8.25).

Vibes are high in the Team Penske No. 2 camp right now, and he’s up against three teams in this group where theirs are OK at best. John Hunter Nemechek is just returning to the Cup Series after a three-year hiatus and probably has a ways to go before he’s comeptive at the mile-and-a-halfs. Josh Berry is a true rookie but finished 29th here in the No. 9 car last year while filling in for Chase Elliott. I’ll disqualify both of them right off the bat.

Austin Dillon is the only other real threat in this group, and at nearly 2-1 odds, I’ll take my chances. Dillon’s season is off to a rocky start, not qualifying for the Busch Light Clash and then finishing 37th in the Daytona 500 and 22nd last week at Atlanta. Though some believe Vegas could be a turning point for the Richard Childress Racing (RCR) driver, I think – at best – we get something between his 18th and 27th-place finishes here from a year ago.

Other Bets on My Card:

Full Truck Series Card | Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.

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