Navigate

2024 Super Bowl Odds & Picks: Best Bets for MVP (49ers vs. Chiefs)

by |

Super Bowl LVIII is less than a week away as the San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs. Millions of dollars will be bet on this game, from the spread to prop bets to Super Bowl specials. However, the biggest bet for this game is the Super Bowl MVP.

Every year, bettors start betting on the Super Bowl MVP before the Conference Championship Games. It is one of the most placed bets every year. However, which player will take home the award this year?

Historically, a quarterback has the best chance of winning the award. A quarterback has won the Super Bowl MVP award 55.2% of the time. The next closest position is wide receiver at 13.8%. A wide receiver has won the award eight times, including two of the past five years.

These two teams faced off in Super Bowl LIV, with Patrick Mahomes getting the victory and Super Bowl MVP award. He is currently the favorite to win the MVP award on Sunday.

In addition to betting on which player will win the MVP award, you can also bet on which position will take home the trophy. However, the odds aren’t great if you bet quarterback (-265). Bettors are better off placing a separate bet on Mahomes and Brock Purdy. However, the positional bet is appealing if you want to back a wide receiver (+800) or a tight end (+900), but not sure which one.

Best MVP Bets for Super Bowl LVIII

All odds are from DraftKings.

The Favorites

Patrick Mahomes (+125)

While the Chiefs are underdogs for the Super Bowl, Mahomes is the heavy favorite to win the MVP award. The superstar quarterback has won the MVP award in both Super Bowl victories, including last year against the Philadelphia Eagles. Mahomes won last year’s MVP award despite having under 200 passing yards in a 38-35 victory. Given the lack of big-name wide receivers and running backs, Mahomes is almost a lock to get the MVP award if the Chiefs win the game.

Brock Purdy (+235)

Last year, Jalen Hurts was a heavy favorite to win the award over every other Eagles player. While Patrick Mahomes is a significant favorite to win the MVP award over any other Chiefs player, that isn’t the case with Purdy. Unlike Kansas City, San Francisco can win the game without a tremendous performance from their starting quarterback. Purdy had an impressive regular season but hasn’t put up massive numbers during the playoffs. Hopefully, that changes for the Super Bowl.

Christian McCaffrey (+450)

The last running back to win the Super Bowl MVP award was Terrell Davis in 1998. McCaffrey has been San Francisco’s offense in the playoffs, accounting for four of the team’s seven touchdowns during the two postseason games. McCaffrey also led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459), scrimmage yards (2,023), and total touchdowns (21) during the regular season. If the 49ers come away with the victory, don’t be surprised if the superstar running back wins the MVP award.

The Long Shots

Travis Kelce (+1200)

A tight end has never won the Super Bowl MVP award, but that could change this year. Kelce had a disappointing regular season, totaling fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015. His five receiving touchdowns were the second-lowest total in his career. However, the superstar has been outstanding during the playoffs, averaging 87.3 receiving yards and a touchdown per game. Kelce had a receiving touchdown or over 130 receiving yards in all three of his Super Bowl appearances.

Deebo Samuel (+2000)

Samuel had an impressive performance during the NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions, totaling 11 touches for 96 scrimmage yards. While the star wide receiver has been inconsistent over the past several weeks, he can explode for over 150 scrimmage yards in any game. Samuel’s a force in the open field. Samuel averaged 8.75 yards after the catch per reception during the regular season, the highest average among wide receivers with at least 10 targets.

Nick Bosa (+7500)

The last defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP was in 2016 (Von Miller). However, that could change on Sunday. Bosa had double-digit sacks during the regular season for the third consecutive year. Furthermore, he had two sacks in the NFC Championship game against a talented Lions offensive line. Bosa will face off against Jawaan Taylor (five sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 37 hurries allowed per PFF this season) plenty on Sunday, giving him opportunities to make game-changing plays in the backfield.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App