2024 Super Bowl Preview: Odds, Picks & Predictions (49ers vs. Chiefs)
Sometimes, time doesn’t offer the clarity we hope.
When I wrote my early preview of Super Bowl LVIII, I mentioned how it’s important to use the benefit of time to help affirm or change our initial opinions.
But sometimes you have to take a breath. Oftentimes, we need the benefit of time to confirm or correct our knee-jerk reactions.
Those are my exact words from an article I wrote a little more than a week ago. And often, the benefit of time helps me see a game more clearly.
But sometimes you’re simply conflicted.
I’m not going to make you read hundreds of words and come to the conclusion of “Gee, I just don’t know.†That’s not why you’re here. However, I am going to mention that this is one of the hardest Super Bowls I’ve handicapped.
Below you’ll find my full breakdown, a game prediction, plus my full betting card including props and MVP picks.
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Super Bowl LVIII Preview: San Francisco 49ers (-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs, O/U: 47.5
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
How Much Does Being the Better Team Matter?
I have been weighing this question for the last 10 days. When I evaluate these rosters from top-to-bottom, my prevailing thought is that San Francisco has the more talented group. They have weapons at all levels of the offense, a solid offensive line, and a strong front seven with playmakers in the secondary.
However, does having the best overall team matter as much in a one-game, do-or-die sample size? Because if you ask me which quarterback and coaching staff I trust more, the answer to both questions is Kansas City.
While San Francisco has been a front-runner for most of the season, Kansas City has faced far more adversity. The Chiefs have been forced to adapt and overcome their limitations, but when you’ve got Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, it’s easier for QB play, great coaching, and timely mistakes from your opponents to be enough.
The question remains: Is that formula replicable against this 49ers team?
When San Francisco Has the Ball
Brock Purdy has quieted every doubter since the day he was drafted as Mr. Irrelevant. However, he’s had some really shaky moments in these playoffs and has struggled mightily against top-tier defensive coordinators like Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald, Minnesota’s Brian Flores, and Cincinnati’s Lou Anarumo.
You could argue Kansas City’s Steve Spagnuolo is the best of that bunch and I suspect he’ll have a gameplan that’s predicated on limiting San Francisco’s ground game with heavier personnel while relying on blitz schemes to confuse Purdy on longer down-and-distance situations. Last year, we saw Kansas City hold an Eagles offense that led the league in rushing to just 3.6 yards per carry on 32 attempts, so there is precedent that should offer up some hope for Chiefs backers.
That all being said, I expect Kyle Shanahan to have a great game plan in place as well and his outside zone run concepts are copied across the league for a reason: it’s incredibly difficult to stop, especially when blockers get to the second level.
From a schematic perspective, Kansas City tends to play more man coverage on the back end. That’s worth calling out because San Francisco’s playmakers have had drastically different levels of success against man vs. zone. Just take a look at these stats per Player Profiler:
- Deebo Samuel Win Rate vs. Man: 24.5%
- Deebo Samuel Win Rate vs. Zone: 55.4%
- Brandon Aiyuk Win Rate vs. Man: 37%
- Brandon Aiyuk Win Rate vs. Zone: 57.3%
Interestingly enough, Purdy ranks 32nd in man coverage throw rate but has the league’s best passer rating when throwing against man coverage. He’s still been darn good against zone (6th-best QBR), but it’s worth wondering if Purdy was legitimately good against man, or benefitted from a smaller sample size against that type of coverage.
In particular, I think Aiyuk could struggle to get going, especially if he’s matched up with L’Jarius Sneed on the outside. Samuel’s ability after the catch makes taking his under on receiving yardage a huge risk, I do think Aiyuk will catch fewer than five passes. I also think Deebo will find success on the ground against a Kansas City defense that allowed nearly six yards per carry against wide receiver-designed runs.
I also think this coverage could benefit George Kittle. The Chiefs did a good job in coverage against tight ends this season, however, I think Kittle’s receiving yardage prop is a tad low at 48.5 yards, a number he cleared in 11 games this season. Kittle has succeeded at a far better rate against zone coverage.
As for Christian McCaffrey, while I do think he will find success on the ground, his yardage prop of 90.5 yards feels just right, as well as game script-dependent.
When Kansas City Has the Ball
The Chiefs’ offense has essentially cut the fat as the year has gone on. It’s Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and occasionally Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Kansas City’s investments along the offensive line have also made a major difference, although the Chiefs likely won’t have guard Joe Thuney in Las Vegas.
San Francisco has also invested heavily along the defensive line, making this trench battle arguably the game’s most important. The 49ers rely on their front four featuring Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Chase Young to generate pressure, while the back seven tend to sit back in zone coverage to prevent big plays.
Generating pressure on Mahomes frequently will be paramount, as Mahomes ranks 17th in catchable ball pass rate when pressured, which makes sense considering he has fewer offensive outlets than ever.
In the past, playing zone coverage on the back end has been a disaster for opponents battling Mahomes. However, Mahomes hasn’t been as lethal against zone coverage this year, ranking just 17th in passer rating vs. zone coverage and 20th in accuracy. This makes generating pressure even more critical.
As I mentioned above, Kansas City has been forced to adapt its offense to its personnel. The Chiefs aren’t exactly an explosive offense anymore and have relied more on the ground game and short-area passes to move the ball downfield efficiently.
That means Pacheco is going to play a prominent role in Kansas City’s game plan, especially after seeing how teams have gashed San Francisco’s run defense as of late. Excluding Week 18, San Fran has surrendered at least 100 yards in four of their last six contests, including both playoff games. Can Kansas City’s offensive line, which ranked 20th in ESPN’s run block win rate, generate a push against a San Francisco defensive line that ranked 10th in run stuff win rate?
Ultimately, I think they can, which is why I like Pacheco to go over 66.5 rushing yards.
I also think rookie receiver Rashee Rice could be in store for a big day. Rice has a 63% win rate against zone, compared to a win rate of 36.4% against man. I like Rice to go over 66.5 receiving yards.
Lastly, I do think Travis Kelce will get his. It’s the Super Bowl, so I suspect he’ll be force-fed the ball whenever Mahomes needs a play. The 49ers also surrendered the ninth-most targets per game to opposing tight ends this year and just allowed Sam LaPorta to catch nine balls for 97 yards in the NFC title game. Kelce’s receiving yardage prop is a tricky one at 70.5 yards, but I would lean toward him going over that number if I had to choose.
Prediction
This has the makings of a classic nail-biter, but I’m ultimately taking the team that I trust to make those critical plays to keep drives alive, and that’s Mahomes and the Chiefs.
I believe the Chiefs can scheme up ways to limit San Francisco’s running game, while increased man coverage and designed pressures could give Purdy plenty of trouble. On the flip side, I don’t see Kansas City’s offense finding much explosiveness, just like they haven’t for most of the season.
Both offenses will have to be methodical when moving the ball. Ultimately, the game could come down to third-down conversions, where the Chiefs have an advantage. San Francisco ranks 3rd offensively, but 27th defensively on third down. Meanwhile, Kansas City ranks top-six on both sides of the ball in that category.
A Chiefs dynasty might be simply inevitable.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, 49ers 20
Matt Barbato’s Full Super Bowl Betting Card
- Chiefs Moneyline (+102)
- Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 4.5 Receptions (-166)
- George Kittle OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Deebo Samuel OVER 14.5 Rushing Yards
- Rashee Rice OVER 66.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
- Isiah Pacheco OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards
- Rashee Rice Most Valuable Player (+5000)
- Deebo Samuel Most Valuable Player (+2000)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: