2024 The Sentry: PGA Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Bo McBrayer |
Jan 03, 2024

After an incredible 2023, Iâ€™m amped up to bring you the best bets for the PGA Tour season again this year. As always, the first stop of the new year is upon the scenic cliffs of Maui at Kapalua Resortâ€™s Plantation Course. The Sentry is a shortened name with a newly-expanded field from â€œThe Sentry Tournament of Championsâ€ of yesteryear. Last yearâ€™s Tour winners are here again, minus Rory McIlroy, along with the rest of the top-50 in the FedEx Cup standings. This field is really beefed up, with nearly double the golfers vying for the first trophy of the new year.

Betting on golf is a wild ride. Itâ€™s far from a coin flip like in other sports, where a moneyline wager on one team to defeat another is often close to a 50-50 proposition. Even in a 59-person field, the â€œfavoriteâ€ is still paying more than five-to-one with a win. Through placid seas and unruly squalls, the payoffs can be incredible. The average field is about 150 golfers, leaving the amateur bettor shaking their head in uncertainty. The key is bankroll management. Only bet what can be chalked up to be entertainment expenses in a loss, while not getting over oneâ€™s skis with a big win. Stay steady and in your lane.

I recommend planning out the entire season right now. Allocate a certain number of units to be played each week and treat that figure like gospel. Unit size is, of course, up to the bettor and their budget. Create a spreadsheet to track wins and losses to help with accountability and organization. The picks I will publish throughout this season are mine to play and are for entertainment purposes only. Play at your own risk and discretion.

2024 The Sentry Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook

Kapalua is the only course on Tour with a par-73. Though it stretches to nearly 7,600 yards, there are substantial elevation changes throughout. The longest holes are steeply downhill and offer gigantic fairway landing areas. The greens are a spongy Bermuda and are among the easiest to hit. Scoring will only be hampered in the event of strong trade winds or rain, which is certainly possible on a tiny island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

The key metrics to consider are on approach, along with some driving distance consideration. I am also placing a lot of emphasis on a golferâ€™s ability to convert scoring opportunities, which includes putting. There are many very good golfers in attendance, so Iâ€™ve also considered where the betting lines are trending to maximize return on investment (ROI). Letâ€™s stick a tee in the ground at get after it.

Patrick Cantlay

While I do enjoy rooting for both Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland (my cash cows from 2022 and 2023), I simply do not like their very short odds this week. This field is loaded with talent and I donâ€™t want to pay up royally for a negligible difference in talent. Cantlay checks all the boxes as a ball striker and has not shared the same short game struggles as the other two. The methodical plodder is also the type of golfer who can roll out of bed and hit the first tee, striping it without so much as a stretch or snack.

Picks: Outright +1200 [1u]; Top-5 +260 [1u]

Collin Morikawa

Speaking of ball-strikers, the former California Golden Bear is among the purest iron players in the world and looked stellar in his last appearance of 2023. Some gripes are warranted with his streaky putting, but he was still multitudes better with the flat stick than Scheffler last season. Morikawa has also enjoyed plenty of success at Kapalua, despite falling short of taking home a win.

Picks: Outright +1200 [1u]; Top-5 +260 [1u]

Tommy Fleetwood

Letâ€™s say the weather does turn. Who better to support than the Englishman who can score anywhere, anytime? Fleetwood is no worse than 22nd in this field in any metric, while also coming in sixth in total strokes gained. Call it a hunch, but the worldly golfer with no weaknesses seems to be a great bet in a tournament with no cut and plenty of chances to score.

Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +220 [1u]

Wyndham Clark

A concerted effort was made to pick long shots who can putt the lights out. Clark won a major last season and had a memorable summer return to glory. Though he is considered more of a grinder, this reputation was manifested from a late season struggle with finding fairways. Even this former Oregon Duck can hit these spacious runways to get a good look on approach. Clark is among the most lethal in the world on the green and can really put a bunch of circles on the card when running right.

Picks: Outright +5000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +360 [1u]

Denny McCarthy

The best putter in this field should not be 65-1 odds to win. The Marylander is also in the top half of this field at converting birdies or better. McCarthyâ€™s job is to get on the green in regulation. From there, he is head and shoulders above the rest. Though he is certainly not a bomber, the expansive landing areas on the fairways and greens should level out the field considerably. I certainly hope we get to see Denny do what he does best and roll pure like Cameron Smith did two years ago in a runaway victory at Kapalua at 34-under par.

Picks: Outright +6500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +450 [1u]

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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