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2024 Toyota Owners 400: NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks & Predictions

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If I had to make a list of the 100 things that I love most about this country, short track racin’ would be in the top half. Make it a night race? Easily inside my top 30.

Tire wear, beating and banging; It doesn’t get better than that.

NASCAR knows as much, signaled in their latest move of acquiring the lease to Bowman Gray Stadium, a historic quarter-mile track located around the Winston-Salem State University Football Field.

A piece of history in itself, the Cup and Xfinity Series now head to Richmond Raceway, a 3/4-mile asphalt track that’s called the unincorporated Henrico County, Va., home for the past 77 years. Expect plenty of tire wear and Toyotas out in front as we head 400 laps under the lights on Easter Sunday.

Here’s the data I considered for this week’s Toyota Owners 400:

  • 2023-2022 Richmond I & II (Finishes, total speed rankings* & loop data*)
  • 2024 Phoenix (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • 2023 Shorter-Flat Tracks (Finishes & total speed rankings*)
  • Driver Track History

*via ifantasyrace.com

With five legitimate Toyotas in the field who all have a chance of winning, this is very much a wait-and-see week on outrights. I advise saving at least 25% of your unit allocation until after practice and qualifying to see if any of the heavy-favorite Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) drivers sets themselves apart or loses some juice to where they become a better value.

In the meantime, plenty of intriguing lines featuring other manufacturers are still available, as featured here in my bets for Richmond.

2024 Toyota Owners 400: NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless noted)

Top Chevy: William Byron (+310) | 1.1u

Despite earning his second win of the young season last week at Circuit of the Americas (COTA), the books are still hanging large numbers out there on William Byron. The No. 24 car is one of only four non-Toyotas that I anticipate having a good run.

The leader in the Cup Series standings has an average start of 3.75 at Richmond in the Next-Gen era, signaling his odds will shrink in all markets come Saturday. While his recent finishes here appear poor, Byron was arguably the best car in this spring race, leading 117 laps and finishing P1 and P3 in the first two stages.

The co-favorite to win the championship is fourth in the Dover Next Gen total speed rankings and second in the 2023-2024 shorter-flat track total speed rankings. Kyle Larson is the only other Chevy who rates out close to Byron. I’ll hedge slightly with the No. 5 and take advantage of Byron’s generous odds here and across other markets.

Top Ford: Chris Buescher (+350 via ESPN BET) | .6u

Like Byron and Larson, the only Fords that rate out with elite Richmond and short-flat tracks metrics are the Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) cars. Chris Buescher won this race in the fall and ranks third in the Richmond Next Gen total speed rankings. Buescher is also the top pony in the 2023-2024 shorter-flat track total speed rankings.

The No. 17 car finished second in the only race at a comparable track this season, Phoenix. The only other Fords within reach were his RFK teammate/owner Brad Kesewsloki and Ryan Blaney, the same drivers who will be the toughest competition for this bet to cash. Still, I’ll take the defending winner, who is riding the momentum of three straight T10s into his favorite track.

Xfinity Series: Austin Hill To Win Group C (+210) | 2u

vs. Taylor Gray (+240), Sammy Smith (+240) & Bubba Pollard (+275)

I typically try to keep my writeups specifically to the Cup Series. But while waiting to see how the Toyotas unload, I stumbled across perhaps my favorite hammer ever for Xfinity.

Austin Hill is arguably the top driver in the series. He leads the standings, nearly scored his third win this past weekend and has finished T5 in all five races this season. The 29-year-old also recently finished fourth at our comp track of Phoenix and was ninth here a year ago.

Taylor Gray is a talented 19-year-old driver who is currently fourth in the Truck Series standings. However, he will be making his first start in an Xfinity car on Saturday after just two prior races at Richmond. Bubba Pollard is a 37-year-old, most known for his Late Model racing, who is also making his first Xfinity start. In fact, the closest thing The Georgia native has driven to an Xfinity car is the one Arca Menards Series East race he ran earlier this year.

This means it’s on Sammy Smith to upend Hill and prevent this prop from cashing. The 19-year-old is currently 11th in the Xfinity Series standings. He has just one start at Richmond, where he finished P19 in top-tier JGR equipment. With Smith now running the JR Motorsports (JRM) No. 8 car, I like Hill’s chances of beating him.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Other Xfinity Series Bets on My Card:

Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.

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