2024 USA TODAY 301: NASCAR at New Hampshire Odds, Picks & Predictions
Being a sports betting analyst, handicapping NASCAR races regularly might not seem like a glamorous life to some. But for me - a small-town kid - it’s all I’ve ever wanted.
Later today, I return to my roots, Kane, Pa., for Alumni Weekend. It’s a celebration of where you’re from, thanking the good Lord that you grew up in a nothing-to-do town. Whether it’s my best friends, my stepdad and his family or former coaches and teachers, I owe them one. If it weren’t for them and that village in the middle of the Allegany National Forest forest, I wouldn’t be living the life I am now.
But before I hit the road and break into a case of Busch Light corn cans when I touch down, we have bussiness to attend to. I’m talking about breaking down our best bets for when NASCAR sets up in a different sleepy little town, Loudon, N.H.
A rare race in the New England area, New Hamshire Motor Speedway offers a bit of everything in the 1.58-mile short-flat track. Drivers have to learn to roll the corners concisely while also avoiding trouble that lies before the narrow straightaways.
The books are absolutely gouging us ahead of practice and qualifying. Therefore, I’m lowering the volume of bets and upping my unit size, especially with some of the juice I’m drinking. As always, keep your head on a swivel this weekend, as rain in the forecast could shake up Saturday’s Xfinity Series race and Cup Series practice and qualifying.
Without further ado, let’s raise one up for our hometowns - however big or small - and get to our best bets for the 2024 USA TODAY 301.
2024 USA TODAY 301: NASCAR at New Hampshire Odds, Picks & Predictions
Top 10: Chase Elliott (-160 via Caesars) | 2.25u
This is the most-juiced bet I’ve placed this season, but for good reason. Chase Elliott currently leads the NASCAR Cup Series standings in points and average finish (9.1). The No. 9 car has also been bad fast at this track type, ranking third in the short-flat total speed ranking, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com.
Two years ago, Elliott was a true competitor here in Loudon, starting second, fishing runner-up and placing second in the total speed rankings. His setup seemed a bit off last year in New Hampshire, as he ranked 17th in the total speed rankings and finished 12th. However, after he broke his leg in the spring, 2023 was just an off-year for NASCAR’s most popular driver.
Let’s drink the juice on Elliott to score a T10, and if you’re feeling frisky, take a small hit of his 14-1 outright on FanDuel. Whether it be rain that would land him on the pole due to the qualifying metric or his all-time best average starting position at New Hampshire (9.0), they may offer you a cashout before the race even begins on Sunday.
Top 10: Tyler Reddick (-130 via Caesars) | 2u
In a turn of events, Tyler Reddick has seemingly found the consistency in the Cup Series we’ve longed for. The 23XI No. 45 Toyota Camry driver is tied for the most T10s this season (10). On short-flat tracks specifically, he’s sixth in the total speed rankings this season and seventh since 2023.
In his first start at New Hampshire in Toyota equipment last season, Reddick started sixth, finished sixth and was eighth in the total speed rankings. Maybe most intriguing is that he was the fourth-fastest late in a run, showing the late-run speed we’re looking for him to climb further inside the top 10 at the end of the race.
Josh Berry (-126 via FanDuel) vs. Kyle Busch | 2u
For a moment last week at Iowa, it looked like Josh Berry might drive off with his first-career Cup Series victory. However, a late-race caution and slow pit stop pushed him down to a seventh-place finish. Still, this wasn’t an outlier performance for Berry, as he’s a short-track specialist who ranks 10th in the short-flat total speed rankings this season.
The 33-year-old might not have the best finishes here in the Xfinity Series, but he’s had the speed,\. Berry finished eighth in his first-career New Hampshire race, then started on the pole in 2022 and third on the grid in 2023. Working with legendary crew chief Rodney Childers and what’s left of a Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) team that has had great success at Loudon, I expect a big race for Berry.
Meanwhile, the panic button has been hit after Kyle Busch’s questionable remarks about potentially looking for a way out of Richard Childress Racing (RCR). This comes following finishes of 27th or worse in three of the five last races, mostly due to mechanical failures or late-race incidents.
Make no mistake, “Rowdy†will eventually turn it around. Just probably not at New Hampshire, where he has an average finish of 30.8 since 2020. Though wrecks are the culprit of those finishes, Busch looked out of control in the two Next-Gen races here. He just doesn’t seem to have a feel for Loudon anymore, and I plan to take full advantage of that and his team tension by fading him against Berry.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Chase Elliott Outright (+1400 via FanDuel) | .5u
Tyler Reddick Outright (+2200 via Caesars) | .3u
Josh Berry Outright (+4000 via BetRivers) | .2u
SciAps 200 (Xfinity) Bets:
Winning Manufacturer: Toyota (-140 via Caesars) | 2u
Justin Bonsignore T5 (+400 via ESPN Bet) | .5u
Riley Herbst T5 (+600 via ESPN BET) | .5u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.