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2024 Valero Texas Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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I had those same goosebumps on Sunday. The hairs standing on end for a long shot leading the pack down the stretch on Sunday, just like with 250-1 Kurt Kitayama at Bay Hill last year. This time there wasn’t a happy ending. Alejandro Tosti, the five-foot-six Argentinian pack of dynamite, buckled under the pressure on hole 72 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. A relatively unknown golfer to most, he would have paid us thousands.

Let’s not dwell on our one-stroke demise for too long. Like a baseball closer, tunnel vision and a short memory are the key here. The process is working and our number is bound to be called soon to reward our persistence.

The Valero Texas Open has a stronger field than in previous years, with more top talent using the event as a springboard into The Masters instead of resting on their laurels thinking of the azaleas and pimento cheese on white bread.

2024 Valero Texas Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

TPC San Antonio is a Greg Norman design with help from Sergio Garcia, There’s a pair of interesting personalities. The course is in the top 10 longest on Tour at nearly 7,500 yards and a par-72. Marked by white oaks, sparse rough and 72 bunkers, this track still relies on the Texas winds to deter low scores. The focus is on approach and on and around these lightning-fast greens. Getting around this place can be a really treacherous saunter if those gusts crack 20 miles per hour.

Some of the lines at sportsbooks are considerably soft on highly rated golfers, while others that might not fit TPC San Antonio well are sporting very short lines to avoid. As usual, we’re pairing our full unit confidence outright bets with top-five and top-10 placement bets and tapering our exposure to longshot players toward top-20 or top-40 placement bets. We’re riding off into the sunset with George Strait; let’s tee off.

Ludvig Ã…berg

Is the line representative of what Ludvig Åberg has accomplished in his fledgling PGA Tour career? Not hardly. Instead, we see a very strong betting contingent convinced that the young Swede’s breakthrough is imminent. They’re not wrong. Åberg’s game is thoroughly electric and absolutely puts him right in the conversation at this event. You can spring for a bet on Rory McIlroy at 9-1, but his game has been sloppy for nearly two months. Åberg is a neo-Rory and is already sporting a level of consistent success that has eluded the Northern Irishman this season.

Picks: Outright +1200 [1u]; Top-5 +280 [1u]

Hideki Matsuyama

To say Hideki Matsuyama is my favorite this week is a gross understatement. He ranked no worse than 17th in this field in any one stat in the whole model, putting him comfortably in a tier to himself at the top. Matsuyama’s ho-hum 63 to win at Riviera still hasn’t left my mind. His form has been exemplary this year. I simply cannot advocate for another golfer with stronger conviction this week.

Picks Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-10 +240 [1u]

Collin Morikawa

I don’t love Collin Morikawa’s form to this point in 2024, but this line is softer than a chinchilla’s belly. The quintessential iron player has not played the Valero Texas Open before, but his strengths will be accentuated this week. The real question yet to be answered is whether Morikawa’s weaknesses will be exposed in turn. I’ll take a chance on him every time at 25-1.

Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +300 [1u]

Akshay Bhatia

There are a handful of especially young gentlemen on the PGA Tour whom I would consider golf prodigies. Akshay Bhatia is one of them. He is an approach assassin and has significantly improved his short game in recent weeks. He was brilliant in the windy conditions last Saturday in Houston, lending me to believe the shot maker will succeed again this week. Bhatia has incredible talent and is now showing the world he can hang with the big boys just fine.

Picks: Outright +5500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +550 [0.5u]

Erik van Rooyen

I was wrong about Erik van Rooyen. I jokingly referred to him as “The Willow Branch” for over a year due to his propensity to find any wet penalty area on the grounds. His recent form has been so outstanding that I am now a raving fan of his. He comes in 13th in my weighted model, ranking in the top 10 in this field in Birdie-or-Better percentage and Strokes Gained: Par-5. I’m a believer in his ability to get off to a great start. He is 24th on Tour in first-round scoring average. The mustachioed South African is a lot better than his odds suggest.

Picks: Outright +8000 [0.5u]; Top-20 +330 [0.5u]; First Round Leader +7000 [0.25u]

Deep Shots: Hayden Springer & Peter Kuest

Hayden Springer is a nice value at 300-1, but a better line is for him to crack the top 20 at +900. He finished in a tie for third at Puerto Rico - which is a comparative course to this one - and rates out well in my modeling. Peter Kuest is a bomber who Monday-qualified for the Texas Open. He is an outstanding fit for the golf course and is currently playing very good golf. He’s another wild one at 400-1 to play with. Don’t forget about Chan Kim either, even if I’ll only be throwing a top-40 bet on him.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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