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2024 Valspar Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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It was another disappointing week as the chalky favorite, Scottie Scheffler, turned in a Sunday 64 at TPC Sawgrass to become the first golfer to ever repeat as Players champion. Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth each had uncharacteristic outings, and both missed the cut. Shane Lowry and Nick Taylor narrowly missed their placement bets that could have broken us even for the week.

Alas, the final stop on the Florida Swing is the carnage-laced Valspar Championship. Mr. Scheffler has gracefully taken the week off to ponder what to do with the $8.5 million he has earned over the last two weekends. Due to a shuffle in the PGA Tour’s calendar, the field is a tad stronger than in recent years for the Valspar.

I’m staying close to the vest with a pared-down betting card this week, but don’t let that mislead you. I expect to have some winners down below.

2024 Valspar Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Valspar Championship is held at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort & Golf Club in Palm Harbor, Fla. It stretches to more than 7,300 yards and has a unique arrangement of holes to fit into the par of 71. Five par-3 holes, four of which are over 200 yards in length, are met with four par-5s and nine par-4s.

Accuracy from tee to green is paramount on this daunting course. Should the golfers inevitably miss these narrow fairways, long and sinewy Bermuda rough awaits them on their approach to well-guarded Bermuda greens. Only twice has the champion fared better than 10-under par here. Both of those occasions were Sam Burns in consecutive trips. “The Snake Pit” is the Tour’s toughest trio of finishing holes and will provide oodles of drama down the stretch on Sunday.

Tightly coiled and ready to strike, let’s tee off.

Xander Schauffele

The odds are incredibly short. I only throw money on a heavy favorite if he is so solidly the top golfer in my model that I cannot ignore it. Xander Schauffele is in the top five of over two-thirds of the stats I ran in my weighted model. He is so far ahead of second place that it would be crazy not to bet him. For the lack of winning Schauffele has exhibited over the last two seasons, it hasn’t been accompanied by a plethora of close calls. He is the class of this field and is expected to prove it this week.

Picks: Outright +650 [1u]; Top-5 +175 [1u]

Cameron Young

The embattled 2022 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year has shown signs of life this season. Cameron Young is a gifted player from tee to green and absolutely annihilates par-5s. His putting has been slightly less grotesque, so I’m betting on his firepower coming out to shine at the Copperhead Course.

Picks: Outright +2200 [1u]; Top-5 +500 [1u]

Nick Taylor

I can’t think of a more consistent performer on positional golf courses than Canadian Nick Taylor. His accuracy from tee to green is complemented by a keen ability to avoid big numbers on the scorecard in difficult conditions. Taylor has also enjoyed a hot putter this season. I feel he is appropriately priced at 35-1 to win outright.

Picks: Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +330 [0.5u]

Doug Ghim

Our guy Doug “Dougie Fresh” Ghim is on some kind of heater during this romp through the Sunshine State. Fortunately for us, his odds haven’t yet caught up to his success. One of the more accurate players off the tee, Ghim is also a birdie-making machine who has found his stride avoiding bogeys in recent weeks. Similar to Young, he dominates par-5s and has putted better than usual during his run. Stay hot, Dougie!

Picks: Outright +4500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +400 [0.5u]

Bud Cauley

From a near-fatal automobile accident in 2018, Bud Cauley has risen like a Phoenix in 2024. He has made the cut in all four events this season, including a 21st-place finish at the Cognizant Classic a few weeks ago, where he was among the 36-hole leaders. Cauley appeared fifth overall in my statistical model, best in this entire field at bogey avoidance and strokes gained on par-3s of over 200 yards. Cauley is also in the top 10 in ball striking over his last 36 rounds, making him a longshot with a real shot.

If you’re looking for an additional pipe dream player on whom to burn a couple of bucks, try Kevin Roy at 350-1. He’s playing well on the Korn Ferry Tour and is as accurate as they come. Good luck to all of us!

Picks: Outright +13000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +450 [0.5u]

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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