We’ve seen golfers struggle during the 2024 Valspar Championship through the first two rounds. While there are still a few players left to complete Round 2, there are several notable players, including Jordan Spieth and Brian Harman, who are likely going to miss the cut at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead course.
In Tuesday’s longshot odds article, we backed players who are currently right above the cut line, as Nick Taylor (E), Doug Ghim (E), Adam Schenk (-1), and Matt Wallace are all T57 or T40 on the leaderboard. Kevin Streelman remains atop the leaderboard at -6-under-par, joined by four other golfers, Brendon Todd, Stewart Cink, Mackenzie Hughes, and Chandler Phillips.
Justin Thomas, who historically performs well at this event, is one stroke back of the lead at -5-under-par, making him the odds-on favorite in the outright betting market at +550 odds entering Round 3. Keith Mitchell, Seamus Power, and Aaron Baddeley join Thomas at T6, with six more golfers sitting behind them at -4-under-par. We’re in store for quite a finish at Valspar this weekend.
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2024 Valspar Championship: Best Weekend Picks
These plays are 0.5ou and 0.75u, or 0.5% and 0.75% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Justin Thomas +550 (0.75u)
Justin Thomas came to play at Valspar this week. The 15-time PGA Tour winner is one of only a handful of golfers near the top of the leaderboard to go under par during the first two rounds, scoring 68 and 69 respectively. Thomas ranks sixth SG: Approach, 31st SG: Around the Green, and 10th SG: Tee-to-Green. Putting has been the primary issue, but with smaller than average greens and punishing four-inch rough, Thomas’ precision off-the-tee and approaching the green separate him from the pack.
He’s well within striking distance of jumping into a share of the lead, which is why we’re getting +550 odds on him as the current outright betting favorite. It’s not as good as pre-event odds, but come Sunday, +550 could look like a massive value. Let’s stake a 0.75 unit wager on Thomas to record his first outright win in two years on the PGA Tour at Valspar this weekend.
Cameron Young +1400 (0.50u)
Cameron Young is positioned nicely at -4-under-par heading into “Moving Day”, also known as Round 3. Young has played well, going -2-under-par in each round on the Copperhead course. He’s managed six runner-up finishes but no outright wins since joining the PGA Tour in 2022, so he’s due to collect at some point. This weekend could finally be the moment Young has been waiting on.
Young ranks 11th SG: Approach and 30th SG: Off-the-Tee. He’s also 35th in birdie or better conversion rate and 24th in bounce back percentage. Young tends to score his best on par 4s, however, his Round 3 and Round 4 average scores have been poor this season. Valspar is a good course for Young’s driver and irons to counter his pedestrian putting. We’re staking 0.50 units on Young to finally breakthrough with his first outright win on the PGA Tour.
Christian Bezuidenhout +1800 (0.50u)
Another golfer at -4-under-par is Christian Bezuidenhout. The South African golfer has also gone 69-69 in his first two rounds at Valspar, relying on a one-two punch from his irons and putter. Ranked eighth SG: Approach and 27th SG: Putting, Bezuidenhout has the ability to hit flag sticks and sink putts.
He’s still seeking his first outright win on the PGA Tour, joining in 2022, but he has notched five wins internationally, so Bezuidenhout knows what it takes to get the job done. Set up to contend for Saturday and Sunday, only two strokes off of the lead, there’s little room for error. We’re backing Bezuidenhout to stay sharp with his irons and flat stick, placing a 0.50 unit wager at +1800 in the outright betting market.
Adam Hadwin +3500 (0.50u)
We’ve recommended Adam Hadwin in a couple of previous events this season. The Canadian has experienced a mix bag of results at Valspar, missing the cut in 2023 and earning a T7 finish in 2022 after starting -12-under-par. In fact, he’s missed the cut three times in the past five years, but his other quality finish came in 2018, managing a T12 finish at -4-under-par.
Hadwin is currently T21 at -3-under-par, regressing from an opening round of 68 to even par (71) in Round 2. He’s a former Valspar winner, taking the winning podium back in 2017 at -14-under-par over Patrick Cantlay. Ranked 33rd in total putting, 39th in putting average, and 40th in birdie or better conversion rate, Hadwin needs to dial his irons up a bit compared to what we’ve seen so far in 2024 to contend for his second career win at Valspar. We’re finishing out bets in the outright market with a final 0.50 unit wager on Hadwin at lucrative +3500 odds.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
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- 2024 NCAA Tournament PrizePicks Predictions
- 2024 Women's NCAA Tournament Player Predictions
- 2024 Valspar Championship: PGA Best Weekend Picks
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.
