2024 Valspar Championship: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions
The PGA Tour stays in the Sunshine State for the 2024 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. Located right outside of Tampa Bay, the Copperhead Course is a difficult venue to conquer, as evidenced by the winning scorecards in past years. Sam Burns went -17-under-par in 2021 and 2022 to win back-to-back at Valspar, but seven of the eight previous winners, including Taylor Moore in 2023, finished 10-under-par or higher.
Valspar is a par 71 that features five par 3s and four par 5s, demanding precision off-the-tee and on approach shots. Bermudagrass greens run upwards of 12.5 feet via Stimpmeter and the rough is punishing, standing as tall as four inches. Of course, like most other Florida courses we’ve seen, there is a slew of tree lines, sand traps, and water hazards placed precariously along fairways and behind some of the greens. The “Snake Pit†is the ominous label assigned to the final three holes at Copperhead, which are two par 4s and a par 3 in-between that are lengthy and narrow.
Matt MacKay returns with betting insights for several golfers with longshot odds in the PGA Tour outright betting market at the Valspar Championship this week. Make sure to follow Matt on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and analysis.
2024 Valspar Championship: Best Longshot Bets
These plays are .25u and .10 u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll. Odds used exclusively from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Nick Taylor (+3500)
Backing Nick Taylor has become a recurring theme in this article series. Ever since the Canadian cashed for us at +17000 odds during his playoff win at the WM Phoenix Open, he’s been hard to fade. Taylor is one of a few golfers on the PGA Tour who is ranked 20th or better in SG: Approach and SG: Putting, which he uses to his advantage. Last year, he logged a T10 finish at Valspar, going under par in the final three rounds after opening up +1. At +3500 odds, we’re obligated to stake 0.25 units on Taylor to notch his second outright win of the season this week.
Doug Ghim (+4000)
Doug Ghim hasn’t been close enough to the top of leaderboards on Sunday to warrant significant discourse, but the 27-year-old American is turning in consistently good performances in 2024. Ghim has gone T13/T12/T8/T16/T16 after missing back-to-back cuts to start the season. Ranked fourth in total strokes gained metrics, including 13th approaching the green, 32nd putting, and 40th 0ff-the-tee, he has minimal flaws in his game. Ghim is also 12th i driving accuracy, which is imperative to avoid tough lies in the tall overseeded Bermudagrass rough. +4000 seems a bit low, indicating oddsmakers may feel bullish about Ghim too, so let’s stake a 0.10 unit wager on Ghim to stay hot as he attempts to win his first PGA event since becoming a member in 2020.
Adam Schenk (+7000)
Last year’s Valspar Championship saw Adam Schenk give away his three-day lead to Taylor Moore on Sunday, so there’s plenty of motivation to avenge the loss during his return. Schenk hasn’t been a world-beater in 2024 thus far, alternating between missed cuts, but he did manage a T19 at TPC Sawgrass, his second best finishing position in nine events played this year. Schenk should carry this momentum into Valspar, relying on his short game to carry the load. Schenk has tended to start poorly and finish strong this year, so if he can go under par in Round 1, the stage is set for him to finally breakthrough with an outright win at +7000 odds. A 0.10 unit wager is all we need to invest on Schenk.
Matt Wallace (+17000)
Sitting all the way down at 170/1 odds in the outright betting market, Matt Wallace stands out as a fantastic value to acquire with only a 0.10 unit wager staked. The Englishman turned in a T7 finish at -4-under-par in 2023 at Valspar, going +1 in his final round despite dominating the course with a -4-under-par Round 2 score. After opening up with 66 and 65 at the Mexico Open a month ago, Wallace regressed significantly. He’s since missed cuts at both Cognizant and The PLAYERS Championship, which is why we’re landing such a big number on his outright odds. Ranked 45th SG: Putting and fourth for par 5 birdie or better leaders, Wallace’s flat stick will need to get hot to give us a chance at an enormous pay day.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NHL Prop Betting Cheat Sheet
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2024 Valspar Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NCAA Tournament Cinderella Guide & Sleeper Picks (March Madness)
- 2024 NCAA Tournament: Sleepers Final Four Picks (March Madness)
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Thursday (Dodgers vs. Padres)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros & BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.