2024 Wimbledon Women’s Final Picks: Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini
Entering the semifinals of Wimbledon, anything other than Elena Rybakina going on to win her second Wimbledon title would have been deemed surprising, given that none of the other three semifinalists had even reached the quarterfinals at the event prior to this year. However, in what was a tournament full of upsets in the Women's Draw, it seems only fitting that we get a final between Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini. Thirteen Grand Slams have been completed between Krejcikova’s two major finals appearances, and Paolini had never won a match on grass anywhere before this season. This surprise final also fits the theme of parity at Wimbledon over the years, as we are now guaranteed an eighth different Ladies' singles champion in the last eight iterations of this Grand Slam.
Paolini was a massive underdog in this year’s French Open final, as World No. 1 Iga Swiatek was a huge -1400 moneyline favorite. The odds for this match are much more of a “coin-flipâ€, so can Paolini break through for her first Grand Slam title and become the first Italian woman ever to win Wimbledon?
Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2024 Women’s Wimbledon final between Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini.
2024 Women’s Wimbledon Final Picks & Predictions
(odds via DraftKings)
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini Prediction
There are several narratives that bettors could feed into that would steer them towards picking Krejcikova in this match, starting with the fact that Paolini's match against Donna Vekic was the longest match in Wimbledon semifinal history in the Women's Draw. However, Paolini only looked stronger as that match went on, and Krejcikova played the second of the two semifinal matches on Thursday, with her match lasting a lengthy two hours and seven minutes as well.
Krejcikova is also likely a favorite in this match as she has the experience of winning a Grand Slam (she was the 2021 French Open champion) and just defeated former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina. But to simply focus on that is selling Paolini short, as she has the more recent Grand Slam final experience finishing runner-up at Roland Garros, and as such, is just the fifth woman in the last 25 years to have made the French Open and Wimbledon finals in the same year.
Many will also point out Krejcikova's 10 doubles Grand Slam titles (including two at Wimbledon), but the skills required in singles are much different than that of doubles, so that experience should not hold too much merit. In addition, Krejcikova has not exactly been a giant killer in her career, as her victory over Rybakina was the first of her career against a Top 5 opponent in a major (she was previously 0-4 in such matches). Instead, we prefer to focus on Paolini's all-court improvement as OptaAce highlighted, as Paolini has made WTA finals on all three surfaces (hard, clay, and grass) this season, while winning 15 matches through the first three majors of the year. And while many will still point out that Paolini was 0-3 at Wimbledon prior to this season, Krejcikova’s current six-match winning streak on grass is the longest of her career, proving she is not much more polished on the surface than Paolini.
Paolini was impressive in coming back twice from down a break in the third set against Donna Vekic, and she will be motivated to become the first Italian woman ever to win the Wimbledon singles title. Krejcikova started slow and was thoroughly outplayed in the first set of her semifinal match, and she needed tiebreakers to win the first set against each of her first two opponents. Thus, we are backing Paolini to win the first set and to win the match at +160 odds (this can be found at DraftKings under the “1st Set/Moneyline†tab), as that wager provides more value than Paolini’s +115 outright moneyline odds.
Pick: Paolini to win the first set and the match (+160 on DraftKings)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01