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2024 WM Phoenix Open: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Following a month-long swing through Hawaii and California to start the 2024 PGA Tour season, the 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open will shake things up, sending players to TPC Scottsdale to compete on a single course with a traditional cut-line enforced.

Scottie Scheffler is attempting to three-peat at the WM Phoenix Open, which is a feat that hasn’t been achieved in over a decade. Obviously, due to his historical success at this event, combined with Scheffler’s top-tier ball-striking ability, oddsmakers have the Texas native favored in PGA Tour outright betting markets at +450 odds.

In this article, we’re focusing on players with longshot odds who have a legitimate shot at taking the winning podium and returning massive value in the outright betting market. We’ve seen a player with longshot odds win every event to start the 2024 PGA Tour season, as Ludvig Åberg came close to beating Wyndham Clark for the outright win at +2800 odds while competing at a shortened Pebble Beach Pro-Am event last week.

We’ve found a few players to wager in the PGA Tour’s outright betting market that are +6000 or longer to win the 2024 WM Phoenix Open. Without further ado, let’s get right into the analysis to highlight why each prospect deserves an investment ahead of the start of one of the most high-octane events on the PGA Tour.

2024 WM Phoenix Open: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u and .10 u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll.

Rickie Fowler (+6000)

Rickie Fowler returns to the WM Phoenix Open after logging a T10 finish here in 2023. Fowler ended his multi-year win drought in 2023, albeit at a different course, but his confidence is showing whenever he takes the tee box. Fowler has yet to play four rounds consistently low, which is why we’re getting such a good number at +6000 odds in the PGA Tour outright betting market on FanDuel.

Fowler’s stats leave much to be desired early on, but TPC Scottsdale is a course that rewards good drivers and ball strikers, which he possesses in spades. The Californian ranks 11th for greens in regulation percentage, 27th in birdie or better conversion percentage, and 12th in par 3 scoring average. At +6000 odds, let’s invest 0.25 units on Fowler to win for the seventh time in his career in the Desert.

Kevin Yu (+8000)

Arizona State University graduate Kevin Yu is set to tee it off for the first time at TPC Scottsdale on the PGA Tour. Yu is familiar with this course due to his collegiate career, plus, he currently resides close to this venue, meaning it’s played plenty during the offseason. Yu’s start to 2024 has been solid, managing a T3 and T6 at The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open events. A T58 at Pebble Beach shouldn’t be overvalued, especially due to a shortened event.

Yu’s skillset can be found in strokes gained off-the-tee, ranking sixth, while also ranking ninth in total driving. He’s top-30 in hole proximity, top-20 at going for the green, and 60th in strokes gained on approach. TPC Scottsdale rewards off-the-tee accuracy and ball-striking as much as anything else, so let’s stake 0.10 units on Yu to notch his first win on the PGA Tour at his local course.

Nick Taylor (+17000)

Canadian Nick Taylor nearly beat Scottie Scheffler down the stretch at the 2023 WM Phoenix Open, but faltered with a late bogey on Sunday. Taylor sunk an iconic 70-foot putt last season at the RBC Canadian Open to earn his third career win, ending a three-year drought. He’s bounced around with his finishes to start 2024, logging T52 at Sentry, before jumping into a T7 finish at the Sony Open.

A missed cut at The American Express, followed by a T71 at Pebble Beach, which Taylor won outright back in 2020, may gives bettors bad vibes about the general direction that he’s heading. However, he’s top-50 in strokes gained on approach and strokes gained putting, while also ranked 26th in strokes gained from 125-150 yards. Taylor is resilient, ranked 21st in bounce back, while also 28th in total putting and 20th in sand save percentage. At a whopping +17000 odds in the PGA Tour outright betting market this week, Taylor warrants a 0.10 units investment ahead of Thursday’s opening tee times.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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