2024 Xfinity 500: NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

It’s hard to believe that just two race weekends remain in the NASCAR season, but that’s where we stand after 88 combined fixtures across the sport’s top-three series. A lot has changed since cars took the track at the Los Angeles Coliseum on Feb. 3 to start the season with the annual Busch Light Clash.

That includes myself, as I’ve learned so much about what works and what doesn’t for me when it comes to NASCAR betting.

Here are my top three lessons learned this year:

1. Bet Matchups, Not Groups:  If you’re a regular reader, you’ll usually find at least one matchup weekly that I absolutely hammer. This has become my most profitable and enjoyable market to bet, as you can usually find at least one mismatch across books. You can also rely on H2H trends to support your theories. Those trends get cloudy when betting groups of over two drivers. Of course, all motorsports betting involves a certain amount of luck, but removing groups from your betting card can drastically reduce the amount of luck that’s involved.
2. Less Is Often More:  Tightening up your card and reducing the amount of bets played each week is one of the best decisions you can make. Early in the season, I’d have cards with upwards of 20 bets on it for the full weekend. The issue there is that even when you cash big tickets, you’re still often chasing your losses just to get back to even. Therefore, my Cup Series cards have been cut nearly in half, staking more units on the bets I love and leaving the fringe plays off completely. It’s a great feeling when you can hit two to three bets on the weekend and still find profit.
3. Drink the Juice:  The mistakes most new bettors make - across all sports - is constantly trying to make a lot from a little and only betting plus-money odds. I’m here to tell you that it’s alright to bet the juice, especially in NASCAR. Of course, the value has to be there, but it certainly can be, even at minus-odds. So don’t be afraid to pay for the juice because you only pay it if you lose.

Speaking of juice, we’re drinking it again this weekend at Martinsville Speedway, as all signs point to a race being dominated by the favorites and those fighting for a spot in the Championship 4.

Let’s put practice to the test with our best bets for the 2024 Xfinity 500 and full card for a weekend of short-track racing.

2024 Xfinity 500: NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 10: Ryan Blaney (-320 via Bet365) | 5u

Ryan Blaney has been a problem at “The Paperclip.” His racecraft allows him to hug the bottom better than almost everyone else, and it’s resulted in a 4.0 average finish in the five Next-Gen Martinsville races, finishing no worse than P7.

While there are no true comps to this .526-mile, unique short track, the closest comparisons are New Hampshire, North Wilkesboro and the Los Angeles Coliseum. At Loudon, Blaney was alongside Christopher Bell as one of the cars to beat, before being taken out late by Michael McDowell. He had a 5.9 average running position and the second-best total speed ranking, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com. In the All-Star Race, Blaney started P17 and made his way up to fifth on a day when passing came at a premium. It was more of the same in the Clash, as the No. 12 car started dead last in the main event but finished with a rock-solid P3.

I’m playing the outright, but instead of taking my chances with the T5, I’ll revert to playing the juiced T10 ticket, parlayed with two College Football moneylines. The #2 Georgia Bulldogs (-800) should be too much for Florida’s true freshman QB DJ Lagway. Meanwhile, Curt Cignetti’s #13 Indiana Hoosiers (-300) are the first team in over 20 years that hasn’t trailed at any point eight games into the season. That streak should continue on Saturday when facing the 4-4 Michigan State Wolverines.

This parlay gives us combined odds of -105, and as long as no upsets happen on the gridiron or the track, we should be cashing our largest wager of the season. Giddy up.

Top 5: Kyle Larson (-120 via Bet365) | 4u

Kyle Larson, who leads the Cup Series in wins (six, three more than the next-best drivers) and laps led (1,615, 613 than the next-best), finds himself below the cutline of advancing to the Championship 4. That means the California native will need a near-flawless day to advance.

Luckily for Larson, he has two poles and three T5s in four Next-Gen races at Martinsville, with the outlier performance resulting in a P6 finish. In the spring race specifically, Larson was second in the total speed rankings, first in green flag speed and first in driver rating. He also had an average running position of 3.5 (second-best) and led 86 laps on the Hendrick Motorsports (HMS)-dominated day.

At the comp tracks this season, the 2021 Cup Series Champion is also three for three at finishing T5. This ticket is going for as short as -170 at some shops. We’ll take the discounted line at Bet365 and run.

Chase Briscoe (-142 via BetRivers) vs. Brad Keselowski | 4u

You usually don’t think of Chase Briscoe as someone you want to lay -142 on in a matchup, but that’s exactly what we’re doing in this H2H against Brad Keselowski. The truth is that Briscoe is one of the Cup Series’ best at Martinsville. The 29-year-old has a 7.4 average finishing position and a 100% T10 rate in five Next-Gen races. That’s compared to Keselowksi’s 26.8 average finish and no T10s.

Looking at the spring race specifically, Briscoe had the fifth-best total speed rankings and finished P10. Keselowski, meanwhile, was 23rd in the total speed rankings and finished right where he deserved to in P23.

While Briscoe didn’t qualify for the All-Star Race feature, he is 2-0 against Keselowski at the other comp tracks, including an impressive runner-up finish at New Hampshire. As long as they can keep the lights on at Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) for this weekend, Briscoe should have no problem besting the Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing driver-owner on Sunday.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Ryan Blaney Outright (+600 via Bet365) | 2u
Kyle Larson Outright (+500 via FanDuel) | 1u
Zane Smith T10 (+1900 via FanDuel) | .3u

Zip Buy Now, Pay Later 250 (Xfinity) Bets:

Aric Almirola Outright (+330 via DraftKings) | 1u
Aric Almirola T3 (-110 via DraftKings) | 3u

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.