It’s in race fans’ DNA to critique the on-track product, and rightfully so. Niche sports like NASCAR survive on the diehards. A pastime that runs in family bloodlines - chances are that if you’re a fan today, so was your father and your father’s father.
Still, there has to be a line. The negative social chatter following the wrecked-filled conclusion of the Daytona 500 has been overwhelming and even exhausting at times. Are fans and analysts spot on with their opinions that NASCAR needs to head back to the drawing board and re-imagine superspeedway racing to eliminate drag, fuel-saving and late-race wreck fests? Certainly.
However, it shouldn’t take away from the fact that even though the product doesn’t look like it once did, it’s still freakin’ awesome.
William Byron won the Daytona 500 last week, breaking Jeff Gordon’s record of being the youngest driver to ever hoist two Harley J. Earl Trophies. I cashed two of my largest wagers from the weekend, but my overall card went up in flames during the late-race calamity.
That’s the known risk when betting drafting tracks, and we’re back playing with fire this weekend as the sport touches down in Atlanta. While the reconfigured 1.5-mile track isn’t your traditional superspeedway, it sure races like one.
With that in mind, here are my best bets for the 2025 Ambetter Health 400 and full card for when NASCAR settles in “Hotlanta.”
2025 Ambetter Health 400: NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Picks & Predictions
Team Penske To Win (+275 via BetRivers) | 1.5u
All three Team Penske drivers, Ryan Blaney (first), Austin Cindric (second) and Joey Logano (sixth) are rated high in the IBT Betting Model.
That shouldn’t be surprising, especially after they were the three drivers who led the most laps at Daytona last week, combining to lead 125 of the 201 total laps. The No. 22 of Logano had technical issues and still battled back into the top six before wrecking on lap 185. Meanwhile, Blaney and Cindric were one-two in Ifantasyrace.com‘s total speed rankings and average running position, with the No. 2 posting a race-best 5.7 average position.
At Atlanta specifically, Blaney is No. 1 in Next-Gen average finish (7.2), while Cindric is fifth (12.0). They were also top-five in average running position in both races there last year. Though Logano’s advanced metrics aren’t nearly as wowing, he has won two of the six races on the reconfigured track, including the last race here in September.
In addition to taking small hits of both Blaney and Cindric’s outrights, I’m betting Team Penske as a whole for additional exposure. Anything can happen, and mayhem could derail things late once again. Still, give me one of the fastest three cars to take the checkered flag come Sunday.
Austin Cindric (-130 via bet365) vs. Denny Hamlin | 3u
Past Cindric’s second-place projections is the fact that he’s become arguably the top superspeedway racer in the Cup Series. His ability to control the race - shifting back and forth across both lanes - was on full display in the Daytona 500. As Denny Hamlin said on his “Actions Detrimental” podcast this week, the driver of the No. 2 is also one of the cleanest superspeedway racers, knowing when and when not to block a run.
Ironically enough, I’m laying the hammer on the 26-year-old to get the best of Hamlin this weekend. Betting superspeedway H2Hs matchups is tricky, but the Virginia native is 23rd in our projections. That’s too big of a gap not to get down on.
The 21-year Cup Series veteran is 21st in the Atlanta Next-Gen average finishes and has just one result better than P14 since the track was reconfigured. Cindric is also 4-2 against Hamlin here in that span, including three straight, and was 4-2 against him on superspeedways last season.
We might be seeing Cindric’s fourth-year ascension right before our eyes, and I refuse to be late to the party.
Even Number Car To Win (-130 via Caesars) | 2u
The one thing eight of the top 10 in the IBT Betting Model have in common is that they were even-numbered cars.
That, of course, includes the three Team Penske drivers. It also gives us Byron, who ranks third in the projections and has won two of six Atlanta races since the reconfiguration. We also get his Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) teammate Alex Bowman, who consistently runs top 10 at superspeedways, Kyle Busch, who narrowly won here in the spring, plus Brad Keselowski and Christopher Bell.
Besides a longshot winner, we only lose this bet if Chase Elliot (fourth in the model) or Daniel Suarez (the defending spring Atlanta winner) gets to victory lane. I’ll take my chances that one of the heavy hitters with an even numbered car is doing burnouts on the frontstretch in this one.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Austin Cindric Outright (+1300 via BetRivers) | .4u
Ryan Blaney Outright (+1000 via FanDuel) | .2u
Hendrick Motorsports To Win (+450 via BetRivers) | .5u
Austin Cindric To Win Stage 2 (+1000 via Caesars) | .2u
Bennett Transportation & Logistics 250 (Xfinity Series) Bets:
Austin Hill Outright (+325 via FanDuel) | 1u
Austin Hill Top 3 (-115 via DraftKings) | 3u
Fr8 208 (Truck Series) Bets:
Ty Majeski Outright (+1000 via FanDuel) | .4u
Daniel Hemric Outright (+1200 via FanDuel) | .2u
Ty Majeski Top 5 (+160 via bet365) | 1.1u
Daniel Hemric Top 5 (+200 via bet365) | .5u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”
