2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Golf Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups
The latest Signature Event on the PGA Tour is the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Held at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill & Lodge Golf Club outside of Orlando, Florida, this field contains 72 of the PGA Tour’s top qualified golfers competing for a $4 million payout as the outright winner. Scottie Scheffler has been a force at Bay Hill and will attempt to defend his 2024 title, with aspirations to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational three times since 2022.
My Cognizant Classic Head-to-Head Matchups finished 0-2. The tournament groups have been fun but difficult to win, pitting five golfers against each other, with odds typically ranging from +250 – +400.
Keith Mitchell had a great chance to cash us out at +360 odds at PGA National but he couldn’t muster the same production we saw in Round 1 throughout the rest of the tournament, finishing T42, allowing Min Woo Lee to win this tournament matchup group with a T11 finish. My other pick, Andrew Novak (+330) never had a chance, missing the cut, while Rickie Fowler emerged as the winner with a T18 finish.
Here are my best head-to-head bets to place before Round 1 tees off on Thursday morning at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more PGA free bets and weekly analysis throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tournament Group – Matsuyama v Thomas v Cantlay v Fleetwood v Im
Tournament groups are the primary head-to-head matchup betting market available on DraftKings Sportsbook right now, so we’re heading right back and targeting Patrick Cantlay to win his group at +320 odds.
Cantlay has gone T4-T36 in 2023 and 2024 at Bay Hill. He’s entering this week with two top-5 finishes in four events this season, with another T15 at The Sentry. He ranks 12th in total strokes gained, including 30th putting, second for finding greens in regulation (76.3 percent), 30th in proximity, 26th on approaches from 200+ yards, and 10th in scoring average.
The Californian has eight PGA Tour wins but hasn’t posted an outright win since the 2022 BMW Championship. I expect a strong showing from Cantlay this week, which will be enough to beat co-favorites Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama at +300 odds. Let’s bet half a unit on Cantlay to win this tournament group at +320.
Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+320)
Tournament Group – T. Kim v M. Kim v. B Griffin v. S.W. Kim v Rai
Ben Griffin has been heating up on the PGA Tour and is being undervalued in his tournament group. The North Carolina native has recorded three top-10 finishes in nine events this season, including back-to-back T4s at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and last week’s Cognizant Classic.
Griffin ranks 39th in total strokes gained. This includes 34th total driving, 35th scoring average, and sitting 50th finding greens in regulation at 71.3 percent. Tom Kim and Michael Kim are both slightly favored over Griffin at +320 odds, while Griffin will also compete against Si Woo Kim and Aaron Rai at +350 odds.
I like Griffin’s current form and his tee-to-green game has bene strong lately. At +330 odds, let’s place one more half-unit wager on Ben Griffin to win his tournament group during the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Pick: Ben Griffin (+330)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.