There is plenty of intrigue for American tennis fans with regards to the 2025 Australian Open Women’s Final, as Madison Keys looks for her first Grand Slam title in her 46th event. This is only Keys’ second Grand Slam final appearance (and first since 2017), and to break through at her first major, she will need to dethrone two-time defending Australian Open champion and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
Sabalenka is the eighth player in the Open Era to reach three straight Women's Singles finals at the Australian Open. She is also the third woman in the last 15 years to win 20 or more consecutive matches at a single Grand Slam, joining Serena Williams (US Open, Wimbledon) and Iga Swiatek (Roland-Garros).
Is an upset in order, or is there a better play for value in this final?
Read on for our 2025 Women’s Australian Open picks and predictions for the final match between Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys.
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2025 Women’s Australian Open Final Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys
Aryna Sabalenka is 33-1 in her last 34 hard court Grand Slam matches. She is 11-0 in 2025, and has won 20 consecutive Australian Open matches (including 13 straight Grand Slam wins). But Madison Keys is a veteran enough player to not be afraid of the spotlight in her second major final appearance (her first since 2017), and has enough experience against Sabalenka that I would not put anyone off backing her to win in an upset.
Keys lost to Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open semifinal. But she showed potential for dominance in that match, winning the first set 6-0, and losing the next two sets in tiebreaks.
Keys has had a tremendous start to the year, going 13-1 (including four top-ten wins) and entering on an 11-match winning streak. The American is one of the lone women on tour that can match Sabalenka's power from the baseline, and should play more loosely having snapped a four-match losing streak in Grand Slam semifinals.
I am wagering on Keys to win Over 9.5 games, considering she has won six-plus games in three of the last five sets, and five of the last 10 played against Sabalenka.
Keys showed tremendous resilience in her semifinal win over Iga Swiatek, becoming the first woman since 2017 to reach the Australian Open Women's Singles final after losing the first set in the semifinals.
In addition, Keys proved that she could come up with her best tennis in the most crucial spots, saving a match point at 5-6 down in the third set to break serve and force a tiebreak, and winning five of the last six points in the tiebreak.
Madison Keys won this match pic.twitter.com/pXt04p8bDr
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) January 23, 2025
Pick: Keys to win Over 9.5 games (-118)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01
