There was a chance for history to be made on the Men’s side of the Australian Open, as Novak Djokovic was in pursuit of his 25th Grand Slam title, which would have been the most for any man or woman all-time. However, he retired with an injury after just one set in the semi-finals, so now we are left with a solid consolation prize for the Men’s Final as the top two seeds, Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev, do battle.
History can still be made in this match, as Zverev is looking for his first career Grand Slam title, while Sinner looks to be the first repeat Australian Open winner not named Novak Djokovic since Roger Federer won back-to-back titles in 2017-2018.
Read on for our 2025 Men’s Australian Open picks and predictions for the final match between Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev.
The No. 1 & No. 2 seed will face off in the Championship ?'?
Zverev leads the head-to-head 4-2, but Sinner won their last meeting. ?'?#AO2025 pic.twitter.com/JSzDyi37BS
— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) January 24, 2025
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2025 Men’s Australian Open Final Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev
Alexander Zverev may have been the only player in the field with a legitimate chance to beat Jannik Sinner in this tournament, based on his 4-2 head-to-head record against the World No. 1. But I am not backing Zverev’s +235 Moneyline odds, as Sinner has become a hard-court specialist who is appearing in his third consecutive hard-court major final.
Sinner is amid a 20-match winning streak, the longest winning streak of his career. He has also won 13 straight at the Australian Open and 13 consecutive Grand Slam matches overall. He has 20 consecutive hard-court Grand Slam wins (the second-youngest to do so). Adding to those historical feats, Sinner is the seventh man to win 20+ consecutive matches this century.
Based on Zverev's 4-2 head-to-head record against Sinner, it is not likely he will fall victim to a straight-set loss, despite Sinner losing just two sets on his current run to the final.
Sinner's fitness is a huge advantage over most opponents, and matches tend to favor him the longer they go. But Zverev has a huge advantage of having only been on the court for 82 minutes in the one set he played against Djokovic before Djokovic retired with injury.
Zverev should not be intimidated by this stage, as this is his third Grand Slam final appearance. Since 2020, Zverev's nine Grand Slam semi-final appearances are second only to Djokovic.
Zverev has as high as a 75% implied probability (based on bet365's -300 odds) to win at least one set. Thus, there is great value in the +138 odds for Sinner to win the match while both players win a set (meaning he will win in four or five sets).
For added value and a way to try and cash multiple wagers, I am backing Zverev to win the first set at +148 odds, which he has done in three of the four hard-court meetings with Sinner in his career (the only first-set loss came in a tiebreak).
Picks: Jannik Sinner Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+138) | Zverev to Win the First Set (+148)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01
