Entering this year’s Australian Open, the biggest storyline on the Men’s side would be whether or not Novak Djokovic could extend his record to 11 Australian Open titles and also win his record-breaking 25th Grand Slam. That quest is alive and well after his epic four-set quarter-final win over Carlos Alcaraz.
There are three other highly qualified players left in the semi-finals, however, to thwart Djokovic’s quest for history.
Read on for our 2025 Men’s Australian Open semi-final picks and predictions.
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2025 Men’s Australian Open Semi-Final Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Novak Djokovic vs. Alexander Zverev
There are many things Novak Djokovic has accomplished in his career that are absolutely jaw-dropping, but adding to that list is the fact this is his 50th career Major semi-final.
Before last year, Djokovic had never been deprived of an Australian Open title once he reached the semi-finals. But Djokovic was out-classed in last year’s semi-final loss to Jannik Sinner, committing 54 unforced errors and not having a look at a single break point.
Alexander Zverev may not have the same success with his serve Sinner had against Djokovic last year, as he was broken four times in the quarter-final win against Tommy Paul and eight times overall in this tournament. But Djokovic was on the court for 11 hours before his grueling match against Carlos Alcaraz which featured several long rallies. That likely took its toll on the 37-year-old.
Two of Zverev’s four head-to-head wins over Djokovic came in their last four meetings, both of which were on hard courts. Zverev has also been a fast starter at this Major, winning the first set in each of his last 10 Australian Open matches.
With the game spread set low at Zverev +2.5 and the fact Djokovic has failed to cover the game spread in each of his last five ATP semi-final matches, I expect this to be a war. Zverev has a penchant for playing five-set matches when he reaches this stage (four of his last six completed Grand Slam semi-final matches have gone five sets), so I am backing the over on Zverev winning more than 20.5 games.
Pick: Zverev to Win Over 20.5 Games (-110)
Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton
Jannik Sinner put the rest of the three men remaining in the semi-finals on notice that he is not relinquishing last year’s maiden Australian Open title easily after he bludgeoned Alex de Minaur 6-3, 6-2, 6-1 in the quarter-finals. Sinner saved the only break point he faced in the match and won an impressive 85% of first-serve points and 80% of second-serve points against the Australian.
American Ben Shelton has a powerful enough serve to keep him in the match. He has averaged nine aces in his last three Australian Open wins. Shelton is also 5-2 in tiebreaks in this tournament, which could be a big advantage in helping this match go longer. But a tiebreak is the only way I see Shelton winning a set, whereas Sinner is much more capable of winning a set dominantly.
Sinner has won 11 out of 15 sets in this tournament by a score of 6-3 or better, so one or two lopsided set scores should help him cover the game spread. It also helps that he has beaten Shelton in straight sets in each of their last four meetings, three of which were on hard courts.
Pick: Jannik Sinner -6.5 Games (-130)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01
