The two Women’s semi-finals of the 2025 Australian Open are set, and they carry plenty of intrigue. Aryna Sabalenka is still alive in her quest to become the first three-peat champion at this Major since Martina Hingis did so from 1997-99. She faces her good friend, Paula Badosa, who is in the midst of a career revival.
In the other semi-final matchup, the only American woman to advance (Madison Keys) looks to break a 0-2 record in Australian Open semi-finals with a win over the dominant Iga Swiatek.
Read on for our 2025 Women’s Australian Open picks and predictions for the semi-finals.
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2025 Women’s Australian Open Semi-Final Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa
We have become so accustomed to Aryna Sabalenka’s recent dominance at the Australian Open that any slight hiccup is deemed big news. Sabalenka’s quarter-final win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova was far from easy. Pavlyuchenkova’s second-set win snapped a streak of 26 consecutive sets won by Sabalenka at the Australian Open.
Pavlyuchenkova was a couple of holds in the third set away from a massive upset, as she was up a break multiple times in the deciding set. But, alas, Sabalenka enters this match on a 19-match Australian Open winning streak, even though she only produced two more winners (29) than unforced errors (27).
Paula Badosa will be no pushover in this match, as it was not long ago she reached the No. 2 ranking in the world. The No. 11 seed has come a long way since dropping to No. 140 in the world rankings last year. Last year’s run to the quarter-finals at the US Open was just the second time she reached that stage of a Major.
History is working against Sabalenka from a games spread perspective, as she has not covered the spread in any of her last nine Grand Slam semi-final matches. Badosa has taken at least one set off Sabalenka in two of their last four meetings. I expect her to at least take this match to a decisive third set, which will give her a great chance to cover the game spread once again.
Pick: Badosa +4.5 Games (-115)
Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek
Both of Madison Keys’ other two semi-final losses at the Australian Open came against the eventual champions, Serena Williams in 2015 and Ashleigh Barty in 2022. Unfortunately for her, Iga Swiatek looks every bit the part of a player who is destined to break through to her first Australian Open final and she could win it all.
Swiatek has not dropped a set and has only lost 14 total games through five matches thus far. In her last three matches against tougher competition, including No. 8 seed Emma Navarro, she has not lost more than three games total or more than two in a set.
Since her first match, Swiatek has not had her serve broken and has only faced three break points in total. While Keys is amid a 10-match winning streak with her last two wins coming against two past runners-up in Melbourne in Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins, Swiatek will be smart enough to stay away from Keys’ powerful forehand, which produced 23 winners in her quarter-final victory.
Keys won her last match against Swiatek on hard courts in straight sets in 2022 in Cincinnati, but Swiatek looks determined to earn back the No. 1 world ranking.
Pick: Swiatek -1.5 Sets (-175)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01
