The 2025 Cognizant Classic is gearing up to tee off from PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida on Thursday morning. It’s the first of several events held in Florida. Oddsmakers have three golfers, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, and Sungjae Im all favored to win at 22-1 odds. Played on a par 71 course with Bermudagrass surfaces and tons of water hazards, golfers who maintain accuracy from tee-to-green will gain an edge and climb the leaderboard. Last year’s winner, Austin Eckroat, is currently 50-1 to defend his title.
My Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Head-to-Head Matchups went 1-0-1. We avoided a loss with Aaron Rai and Ben Griffin both placing T4 at -18-under-par, resulting in a push. This prop failed to cash the +280 odds on Rai due to a pair of late bogeys that plagued the Englishman on the back-nine during Sunday’s final round. The winner came on Akshay Bhatia at +260 odds, recording a solo ninth-place finish to beat Rasmus Hojgaard, Kurt Kitayama, Samuel Stevens, and Patrick Rodgers.
Here are a couple of my best head-to-head bets to place ahead of Round 1 on Thursday morning at the 2025 Cognizant Classic. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more PGA free bets and weekly analysis throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season.
2025 Cognizant Classic Odds & Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tournament Group – Horschel v Fowler v Novak v Eckroat v Woodland
There are some prominent names in this first tournament group, led by Rickie Fowler (+320) and Billy Horschel (+330). Eckroat is also worth mentioning, since he won this event at 17-under-par in 2024.
I’m going to plug Andrew Novak to beat the other four golfers in this group at +330 odds. Novak recorded a T9 finish here last year and ranks 22nd in total strokes gained. This includes 26th SG: Putting, 35th in hole proximity, and 65th in bogey avoidance.
His off-the-tee and approach stats are not good, however, I believe Novak has enough talent to clean this up. He’ll have confidence returning to a course he played well at in 2024, so at +330 odds, let’s bet half a unit on Novak to win this tournament group at PGA National.
Pick: Andrew Novak (+330)
Tournament Group – M.W. Lee v Pendrith v Mitchell v An v McCarthy
One of the most consistent performers at this event in recent years has been Keith Mitchell. He’s had a quiet campaign in 2025 thus far, recording T30-T21-T33-T25 in all four events played. He has yet to miss the cut but hasn’t cracked the top-20 yet. I believe this changes at PGA National this week.
Mitchell has logged top-ten finishes in back-to-back outings at the Cognizant Classic. He ranks 31st in total strokes gained, including fifth SG: Off-the-Tee, 12th in driving accuracy, and 30th in total driving. The 33-year-old American also converts over 74 percent of greens in regulation (14th) and is third in scrambling on the PGA Tour this season.
Taylor Pendrith, Min Woo Lee, and Denny McCarthy are all favored over Mitchell, giving us value at +360 odds. Let’s bet another half unit on Mitchell to have his best performance of the season at a course he’s very comfortable navigating, while competing against other golfers who have yet to show consistency at PGA National.
Pick: Keith Mitchell (+360)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.
