We’re headed to the quarter-final (Round 2) of the College Basketball Crown Tournament in Las Vegas, Nevada. Tonight’s two-game slate features four teams that have already won their first game of the tournament.
I’ll break down each game and hand out a best bet for each.
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Wednesday’s Best College Basketball Crown Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Butler Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos
The Butler Bulldogs escaped the Utah Utes, 86-84, and will now face the Boise State Broncos in the tournament’s second round. Unlike Butler, Boise State had no trouble in their first game.
The Broncos added an 89-59 win over George Washington on Monday. Ultimately, a 15-19 Butler team faces a 25-10 Boise State team in a postseason tournament.
Butler will likely struggle to add a high rate of offensive rebounds. Boise State has held teams to 22.3% of offensive rebounds per game, and Butler has earned only 26.3%. That said, the Bulldogs should still find some open looks from downtown and will likely keep turnovers low, knowing Boise State has produced just 16.5% of turnovers per game this season.
Yet, it’s still likely Boise State wins the turnover battle. After all, Butler has earned only 11.2% of turnovers per game this season. The Bulldogs have also added just 6.7% of blocks and only 5.9% of steals per game. The defense doesn’t do many of the little things. But as a result, Butler fouls at one of the lowest rates in the country.
The Broncos won’t get the easiest looks from downtown. Still, Boise State should have a field day inside the arc. The Bulldogs have allowed 51% from inside the arc, while the Broncos have shot 56.3% from two-point range this season. While the Broncos won’t get to the foul line consistently, Boise State has still nailed 78.1% from the foul line. Boise State has the advantage if the game comes down to the stripe.
I’ll back the Broncos.
Pick: Boise State -6.5 (-105)
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgetown Hoyas
The Georgetown Hoyas will take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the second game of tonight’s quarter-finals.
Nebraska was impressive in an 86-78 win over Arizona State. The Cornhuskers have only shot 32.5% from deep this season. They’ve also struggled on the offensive glass, adding only 26.8% of offensive rebounds per game. Still, Nebraska typically gets to the foul line at a high rate and has enjoyed shooting 53.6% from inside the arc this season.
Georgetown has a defense good enough to get stops. The issue isn’t the defense. It’s the offense.
First, the Hoyas rarely get to the foul line. They’ve also shot just 32% from deep. In addition, Georgetown turns the ball over more per game. The Hoyas have shot just a 50.4% effective field goal percentage.
Meanwhile, both defenses have a defensive-adjusted efficiency number below 100. Each team ranks inside the top 60 in KenPom’s defensive metric. Therefore, I like the under in this tournament game.
Pick: Under 153.5 Points (-115)
