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2025 Cook Out 400: NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Where do you go when shit hits the fan and life knocks you down? For some, it’s a barstool; for others, it’s the back-forty. As for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series champion and 2025 runner-up, Ryan Blaney, it’s Martinsville Speedway.

In back-to-back seasons, Blaney took to the .526-mile short track needing to win to advance to the Championship 4 after heartbreaking runner-up finishes at Homestead-Miami the week prior. Both times, he responded with resounding wins.

While this isn’t that same gotta-have-it fall race, the 31-year-old is once again coming off a devastating defeat at Homestead. Only this time, it was a P36 DNF that came via a blown engine following 124 laps led and clearly having the best car on the day. That makes three straight DNFs for the Team Penske No. 12 Ford Mustang driver after wrecking out at Phoenix and blowing another engine at Las Vegas - both days where he had a rocket.

Maybe a trip to “The Paperclip” is exactly what Blaney and I - a NASCAR gambler on a bit of a cold streak - need to turn the tides. After all, it was the site of our most profitable weekend of the season last year.

Here are my best bets for the 2025 Cook Out 400 and full card for another weekend of NASCAR racing in Martinsville, Va.

2025 Cook Out 400: NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 5: Ryan Blaney (-122 via BetRivers) | 8u

The way Blaney has mastered running the bottom line makes him as good at Martinsville as any driver has been at any track in the Next-Gen era. That includes Kyle Larson running the high line at Homestead and how Kevin Harvick could wrap around the bottom at Phoenix. This racecraft has resulted in a prominent No. 1 projection in the IBT Betting Model coming by way of the top overall Martinsville Next-Gen average finish (3.5) and total speed ranking, courtesy of Ifantasyrace.com.

In addition to being dominant at Martinsville, Blaney also aced the recent comps, finishing runner-up in the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium earlier this season and fifth in the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro last year. While he came away with a misleading P25 finish at New Hampshire last year, he was second in average running position (5.9) before being spun by Michael McDowell late in the race.

Placing T5 in five of six Next-Gen Martinsville races with a worse finish of P7, Blaney is the rightfully deserved favorite this weekend. I got him to win outright at 5-1 earlier in the week and would still lay down on the +450 odds available across several books.

However, the best value comes by way of the -122 T5 ticket offered from our friends in Pittsburgh. This line is nearly unbettable at most books, going for as low as -210 at Caesars. Therefore, I’ll opt to make it my biggest wager of the season so far.

Winning Car Number Under 15.5 (-124 via BetRivers) | 2u

If Blaney can’t come away with the victory, I like for one of the next three drivers in the projections to do so: Chase Elliot  (93% A), Kyle Larson (89% A-) or Denny Hamlin (89% B+). I’m getting all four of these top horses with this bet.

I’m also covered if things get wild and we see one of the following surprise winners:

  • No. 1 Ross Chastain: Not afraid to beat and bang, rates eighth in the projections
  • No. 2 Austin Cindric: Had a T10 run at Bowman Gray earlier this season
  • No. 3 Austin Dillon: Won on a short track  (Richmond) last season
  • No. 4 Noah Gragson: Has ridiculous Xfinity Series Martinsville stats
  • No. 6 Brad Keselowski: Top five in average running position, finishing P4 last fall
  • No. 8 Kyle Busch: Was fast at a road course earlier this season, where heavy braking is required

The only drivers I think who could win this race that this Under 15.5 Winning Car Number bet doesn’t expose us to are William Byron, Joey Logano (on the outright for) and Chase Briscoe, who I have a season win-total bet I’m chasing.

There are a ton of outs here to cash this bet and/or hedge. At just -124, it’s one of the best values across all three series this weekend.

Haters Gonna Hate Parlay of the Week | 2u

Something has to give with Logano, who doesn’t have a T10 so far this season, despite sitting P11 in points with the second-best average starting position (8.8). Positive regression should find him, especially at a track like Martinsville, where he is second in Next-Gen average finish (5.3), finishing T10 100% of the time in that span. In fact, Logano has 11 consecutive T10s at Martinsville, dating back to the fall of 2019.

Considering that the Connecticut native dominated last year’s All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro and finished fourth at the Bowman Gray exhibition race earlier this season, he is absolutely live to win. Getting a -200 line at BetRivers is nearly bettable on its own.

However, I’ll opt to parlay it with my favorite Xfinity Series bet: Aric Almirola T3. The three-time Cup Series winner took both Martinsville races last season in his return to part-time Xfinity Series racing with Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR). Almirola led 298 laps across both those races, had a 2.2 average running position and never left the top 15 of the grid in either race.

Among drivers who have at least driven two Xfinity Series races this season, the 41-year-old leads the series in average running position (5.6). He’s finished T3 in each race and sits P9 in points, despite having three fewer races run than full-time competitors. The speed he’s had so far in 2025 should only get better when he returns to arguably his best track.

I’m all-in on the No. 19 car on Saturday, including at this affordable-priced T3 line. When parlayed with Logano T1o, it gives us combined odds of +158.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Ryan Blaney Outright (+500 via BetRivers) | 2u
Joey Logano Outright (+1100 via Caesars) | .4u
Ryan Blaney Outright + Alric Almirola Xfinity Series Outright (+2000 via BetRivers) | .075u

Marine Corps 250 (Xfinity Series) Bets:

Aric Almirola Outright (+250 via BetRivers) | 2u
Carson Kvapil Outright (+1400 via FanDuel) | .4u
Aric Almriola Top 3 (-139 via BetRivers) | 3.5u
Carson Kvapil Top 5 (+195 via bet365) | 1.8u
Nicholas Sanchez Top 10 (+225 via ESPN BET) | .5u
Jeb Burton Top 10 (+400 via ESPN BET) | .5u

Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”

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