Maybe more than any other form of sports betting, gambling on motorsports often comes with heartbreak. Last week at Atlanta was no different.
My projections had Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric ranked first and second, respectively. They qualified on the front row. Team Penske and their affiliate Wood Brothers Racing entry would go on to once again dominate the race, combining to lead 160 of the 260 scheduled laps. With three to go, Cincdric - who had the best average running position of 5.0 on the day - was put into the wall by Kyle Larson, who tried to check up without being clear.
Most of my Cup Series betting card was tied up in the No. 2 car. This took what looked like a winning weekend following my +325 outright hit on Austin Hill in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race to one where we finished just under a half unit in the red.
Sure, I could’ve gone online to complain about Larson’s hack job of a move. Instead, I was back in the lab, preparing for what lies ahead: the Circuit of the Americas (COTA).
That’s right, NASCAR will trade back-to-back weekends of high-thrill, superspeedway racing for left and right turns on the newly reconfigured COTA. The “National Course” layout cuts off over a mile of the traditional setup but should still be as equally entertaining, totaling 20 turns in 2.3 miles.
The sportsbooks’ opening lines were rightfully high on road course ringer and former Super Cars champion Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) and young gun Connor Zilisch, who is making his Cup Series debut this weekend. However, that just opens up value down the board to exploit.
Let’s take advantage with my best bets for the 2025 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix and full card for a weekend of road course racing.
2025 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix: NASCAR at COTA Odds, Picks & Predictions
Top 10: Ross Chastain (-121 via BetRivers) | 6u
Ross Chastain returns to the site of his first-career Cup Series win this weekend, fresh off a top-10 finish at Atlanta. Beyond his career-defining win in 2022, “The Melon Man” is one of just three drivers to finish T5 three times and post a 100% T10 rate at COTA.
He is second overall in the IBT Betting Model projections, and there’s no doubt why. Chastain is first in all-time average finishing position at COTA and third in the Next-Gen era. He also sits a sky-high second in Ifantasyrace.com‘s COTA Next-Gen total speed rankings, proving he has speed every time he fires up the engine in Austin, Texas.
Last year specifically, the 32-year-old started sixth, led the second-most laps and was fourth in average running position (5.8). Even with SVG and Zilisch in this race, he should run in or near the top five all day again on Sunday.
This is a driver who’s also taken average Niece Motorsports equipment to T5 finishes in both his Truck Series starts here and finished T5 at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen - COTA’s primary comp tracks - in the Cup Series last year. I’m just asking for a T10 from him.
That explains why this is my heaviest bet of the season so far. I used a 25% boost on it to get it to -121, but I’d still lay the juice at the original -150 odds.
NASCAR x IndyCar Parlay of the Week | 2.5u
- Cup Series: Winning Car Number Over 17.5 (-215)
- IndyCar Top 3 at St. Petersbrug: Josef Newgarden (-106)
- Combined Odds: +187 via BetRivers
The winning car number bets have been good to us this season. Yet, I had to get a bit creative to play the Winning Car Number Over 17.5 at -215 this week. I was initially attracted to this line because five of the top six drivers in the IBT Betting Model projections have a car number over this number (Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Ty Gibbs and Alex Bowman). This doesn’t even include odds-on favorites SVG or Zilisch, who would also cash this leg with a win.
The only drivers who I think have a punter’s chance of winning COTA on Sunday under this car number are Chastain (covered there) and maybe Chase Elliott.
The second leg features an Indycar play for Sunday’s Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg. I’m taking the race’s favorite, Josef Newgarden, to finish T3 at -106. The two-time reigning Indy 500 winner won this race last year, only to be disqualified over a month later for violating its “Push to Pass” regulations.
If there’s one thing I know about Team Penske owner Roger Penske from his time in both NASCAR and IndyCar, it’s that he’ll do whatever it takes to win the races that mean the most. After discrediting his program last year, “The Captain” will be back this year with a vengeance and do whatever it takes to put Newgarden back in victory lane here.
If you include last year’s finish, Newgarden has won or finished runner-up in four of the last six races in the streets of St. Petersburg, Fla. I just need him to finish T3 to cash this second leg and bring home the +186 total parlay payout.
Xfinity Top 10: Austin Hill (-130 via bet365) | 4u
Despite usually keeping my best bets Cup Series-specific, I couldn’t help but feature a Saturday play with the re-emergence of the Xfinity Series T10 market. The only other time I’ve encountered it was at Talladega last spring. So, as the saying goes, “Get it while the gettings’ good.”
Austin Hill came through for me last week, cashing both our -115 T3 ticket and +325 Xfinity outright at Atlanta. I’m going right back to the well with “Big Country” at arguably one of his best non-drafting tracks. He’s finished runner-up twice in his three COTA starts, with the only time he didn’t being the result of a blown engine.
In last year’s race specifically, Hill was sixth in green flag speed, second in speed late in a run and fourth in speed by segment. However, with so many new faces in the series and behind the wheel this weekend, he is first among drivers racing in all those advanced metrics. The same can be said for his 7.1 average running position and 112.7 driver rating from 2024.
Hill also finished T10 in three of the other five Xfinity Series road course races last season. The only outliers are a P11 at Portland and a P33 after crashing out at Watkins Glen.
Much like the Chastain T10, we’re in business as long as Hill avoids trouble and mechanical issues.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Ross Chastain Outright (+1600 via FanDuel) | .8u
Tyler Reddick Outright (+850 via FanDuel) | .75u
Christopher Bell Outright (+1200 via FanDuel) | .5u
Other Focused Health 250 (Xfinity) Bets on My Card:
Austin Green Top 10 (+600 via bet365) | .5u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”
