If you blinked, we’re already nearly a quarter of the way through the 2025 NASCAR season. From confrontation at the infield care center to late-race restarts deciding races and a surprise winner at an intermediate track, I’d say we’ve already seen it all.
However, we know damn well our jaw will hit the floor multiple times over the next 28 Cup Series and additional lower series races.
As the season progresses, handicapping races should also become easier, given that the further we go, the more 2025 data and recent form we get to factor into projections. Allow this weekend’s affairs at Bristol Motor Speedway to be somewhat of a speed check to consider who’s running hot and who’s not. While that can always change as things roll along, it’s essential to take stock of the overall field while continuing to weigh track-specific metrics strongly.
Let’s put rubber to the race track with my best bets for the 2025 Food City 500 and full card for a weekend of short-track racing.
2025 Food City 500: NASCAR at Bristol Odds, Picks & Predictions
Top 5: Denny Hamlin (-120 via ESPN BET) | 3u
After back-to-wins, it’s Denny Hamlin’s world; we’re just living in it. Returning to Bristol, the Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) No.11 Toyota Camry driver scored a 97% grade in the IBT Betting Model, the highest grade recorded this season. That comes via a 3.8 Bristol Next-Gen average finish (second best), including two wins, and the third-best total speed rankings, courtesy of Ifantasyrace.com, in that same span.
The 56-time Cup Series winner recently shared his initial concerns when his crew chief Chris Gabehart took a role as JGR’s Director of Competition before the season, leaving Chris Gayle atop the No. 11 pit box. However, something’s clicked, as Hamlin sits second in points and is fourth in the 2025 total speed rankings to date at conventional ovals.
There’s no reason to get away from the Progressive-backed driver this week, as he paced top three in average running position in both of last year’s Bristol races. He also is first in the Next-Gen total speed rankings at Dover, the only loose comp track to Bristol.
I’m taking Hamlin on the 5-1 outright, but this -120 T5 ticket at ESPN BET offers even better value, going for as low as -180 at some shops.
Top 5: Kyle Larson (-130 via ESPN BET) | 3u
Rinse and repeat the same strategy as Hamlin with Kyle Larson. The California native has become arguably the most dominant Cup Series driver at “The Last Great Colosseum,” pacing first in Bristol Next-Gen average finish (3.3) and second in total speed rankings during that span.
Larson was servicable in last year’s spring Bristol race, where the tire compounds were the softest we’ve ever seen in the modern era, finishing fifth with a top-five average running position (8.4) among active drivers. However, he was dominant in the fall, winning after leading 462 of 500 laps and sporting an unreal 1.1 average running position.
Coming off a disappointing day at Darlington, where he wrecked his race car just laps into the race, Larson will be ready to go Sunday and potentially pull off the weekend sweep. He and Hamlin battled it out the last time we were at the comp track, “The Monster Mile.” I expect a similar ending this weekend in Tenneessee. That’s why I bet “Young Money” both on the -130 T5 ticket and used a 50% boost at BetRivers to get his outright at +675 from BetRivers.
Chris Buescher (-114 via BetRivers) vs. Brad Keselowski | 1.5u
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) drivers Chris Buescher and team owner Brad Keselowski. The former sits P11 in points with five T10s, while the latter is 31st with no T10s. Buescher is 7-1 against his boss in points-paying races this year, with the only loss coming at Las Vegas by two spots.
While both drivers have Bristol wins on their resumé, Buescher’s came in the Next-Gen era (fall 2022). The Texas native is also fifth in average finish since 2022, while Keselowski’s is a respectable ninth in average finish (12.5), resulting in a 3-1 record in favor of the No. 17.
Buescher also separates himself at the comp track of Dover. He is 2-1 against Keselowski in the Next-Gen era there and tied for ninth in the total speed rankings in that span, compared to Keselowski’s 19th.
Unless “Bad Brad” can get it together for the first time this season and then some, Buescher should be on autopilot for a win in this H2H matchup. To get him at a pick’em price of -114 a piece is a slam dunk.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Kyle Larson Outright (+675 via BetRivers) | 1.5u
Denny Hamlin Outright (+500 via ESPN BET) | 1.4u
Kyle Larson Weekend Sweep (+1800 via ESPN BET) | .5u
SciAps 300 (Xfinity Series) Bets:
Ryan Sieg Top 10 (+100 via ESPN BET) | 2.5u
Connor Zilisch (-120 via Caesars) vs. Austin Hill | 2u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”
