2025 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Predictions: Auburn vs. Michigan State
Chalk is the story of the 2025 NCAA Tournament to this point. The South Region is no exception, as one of three regions with its Elite Eight matchup being between No. 1 and No. 2 seeds.
Michigan State is looking to go back to the Final Four for the first time since 2019, when it beat No. 1 overall seed Duke in the Elite Eight. Now the Spartans get a crack at another overall No. 1 seed in Auburn, who just beat Michigan State’s biggest rival to book its spot in this regional final.
Here is our best bet for the South Regional Final between Auburn and Michigan State.
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Best College Basketball Bets for the South Region: Elite Eight
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 1 Auburn (-5.5) vs. No. 2 Michigan State | O/U 147.5 (-115/-105)
Michigan State improved to 45-9 straight up (SU) and 32-20-2 against the spread (ATS) as favorites in the 2025 NCAA Tournament with its comeback win over Ole Miss. Since those trends do not apply to the Spartans being the rightful underdogs against the overall No. 1 seed in this matchup, my best bet lies more in the total.
This should be a more free-flowing game for the Spartans than their 73-70 win over Ole Miss was, as Rebels head coach Chris Beard did not want to get into a track meet with the Spartans. I expect Tom Izzo’s bunch will be the ones who take their foot off the gas somewhat in this matchup and attempt to make Auburn play more in the half-court.
The case for the over is that Michigan State still scored 73 points on an Ole Miss team that entered the Sweet 16 as one of the most elite transition defensive teams in the country, holding two of the most transition-reliant Power 5 conference teams it played to 12 combined transition points.
But while Auburn may allow more defensively in transition, it has more positional length to bother the Spartans at the rim. Meanwhile, Michigan State entered the Sweet 16 ranked in the ninth percentile in overall catch-and-shoot efficiency and in the second percentile in unguarded catch-and-shoot offensive efficiency, which lowers its ceiling offensively if the game is limited more to a half-court setting.
The under has cashed in eight of the 10 games Michigan State has played against ranked opponents this year. It should be the right side of the total again in this matchup.
Bet: Under 147.5 Points (-105)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.