We are back. After the Sweet 16 offered some exciting matchups to close out the evening, the Elite Eight starts up with only four more games before we determine the Final Four. It's been a chalky tournament so far, and there's a chance all four No. 1 seeds make it to San Antonio with three of the games being No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups.
The boring part is that there isn't a Cinderella team to root for, but the best part is that it truly is an Elite Eight of squads that should hopefully offer a valuable watching experience. Here, I will be previewing the best bet for Duke vs. Alabama in the East Region.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Best College Basketball Bets for the East Region: Elite Eight
(Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Location: Prudential Center – Newark, NJ
Spread: Duke -6.5 | Total: 173.5
Can we just take a second to appreciate how awesome this game is? This Elite Eight matchup ranks as KenPom‘s third-highest rated post-pandemic Elite Eight game, with two of the best offenses in the nation. Alabama’s 25 three-pointers against BYU represented a statistical anomaly, while Duke has posted three consecutive elite offensive performances in terms of points per possession (1.32, 1.5, 1.42), including four of the season’s 15 best opponent-adjusted offensive games. That's insane.
On the other side of the ball, it's a bit different. Duke is coming off their worst defensive performance of the season, allowing 1.32 points per possession against Arizona, which could provide hope for Alabama. However, the Crimson Tide’s offense relies heavily on downhill drives and creating early shot clock opportunities, which becomes challenging against Duke’s top-10 transition denial defense. No team forces teams deeper into the shot clock than the Blue Devils.
Alabama’s most exploitable avenue will likely be through dribble handoffs, forcing Duke’s Kon Knueppel into difficult defensive matchups. The Crimson Tide could also replicate Arizona’s success against Duke’s pick-and-roll defense, which yielded a season-high 22 points to ball handlers. With Mark Sears, Labaron Philon, Aden Holloway and Grant Nelson as capable creators, Alabama has multiple options to attack Duke’s switches and potentially get mismatches.
When Duke has the ball, pick-and-roll dominance appears inevitable. Alabama’s continued reliance on drop coverage seems particularly vulnerable against Cooper Flagg and Tyrese Proctor, with the latter in the 84th percentile as a pick-and-roll scorer with an impressive 63.7% effective field goal rate on dribble jumpers, per Synergy. Against previous drop coverage opponents like Cal, Illinois, Kentucky and Syracuse, Duke took fewer threes but generated higher-quality looks, shooting 57% on twos with significant rim dominance and ample second-chance looks.
Historical context suggests Duke should have the advantage. Against the six best defenses Alabama faced, they still managed 1.13 points per possession, but against the six best offenses Duke played, the Blue Devils maintained solid defensive metrics. Alabama’s shot volume is historically low for a No. 2 seed, as I've mentioned in previous articles. Their limited second-chance looks and relatively higher turnover rate have led to a 1-4 record when losing the combined rebounds and turnovers battle by four or more.
This feels a bit like the game between Duke and Alabama, with two high-powered offenses, but Duke's is simply too much to keep up with. Alabama is a team that lives with variance. After putting up 113 on BYU with 25 made threes, statistically, they should be due for regression. Of course, there's always momentum, but this game feels like plenty of opportunity for live betting off runs and going with Duke all the way.
Prediction: Duke 93, Alabama 81
Best Bet: Duke -7 (-110)
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.
