We are back. After the Sweet 16 offered some exciting matchups to close out the evening, the Elite Eight starts up with only four more games before we determine the Final Four. It's been a chalky tournament so far, and there's a chance all four No. 1 seeds make it to San Antonio with three of the games being No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups.
The boring part is that there isn't a Cinderella team to root for, but the best part is that it truly is an Elite Eight of squads that should hopefully offer a valuable watching experience. Here, I will be previewing the best bet for Florida vs. Texas Tech in the West Region.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Best College Basketball Bets for the West Region: Elite Eight
(Odds Courtesy of BetMGM)
No. 1 Florida Gator vs. No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Location: Chase Center – San Francisco, CA
Spread: Florida -6.5 | Total: 157.5
Florida is the favorite, of course, opening as a 4.5-point favorite and still catching steam despite the injury concerns surrounding Alex Condon, who will likely be limited by the ankle sprain. The Gators have been on fire this tournament, outshooting their opponents by more than 12.2% from three and by more than 13% on all jump shots. Their 87-71 victory over Maryland highlighted their offensive strength, even if ShotQuality metrics suggest the game should have been closer. It wasn't even a great game for the Gators, and they still cruised to victory.
In contrast, Texas Tech’s journey has been bumpier. They needed a historic comeback against Arkansas in the Sweet 16 for what, so far, has been the best game of the tournament. Although the Red Raiders have played well, they have struggled with shooting, going 8-for-32 (25%) from deep against the Razorbacks and just 2-for-14 (14%) against Drake. Chance McMillian could remain out. If he is back, he will likely be limited, which only hurts their scoring efforts.
Though Florida is a menace defensively, their interior defense might be a concern. They rank in the 44th percentile for one-on-one post defense and rarely double-team, which could be problematic against JT Toppin, who's been sensational, averaging 22.5 points and 10.3 rebounds over his last stretch of games. The frontcourt pairing with Darrion Williams is going to be tough for the Gators' big men.
Florida’s success hinges on Walter Clayton’s scoring and its transition game, which averages 12.6 field goal attempts per game. However, Texas Tech excels at transition denial and ranks in the 96th percentile for off-ball screen defense, forcing opponents into less favorable mid-range shots.
The Gators’ defense against top offenses shows vulnerabilities, allowing 1.21 points per possession and a low forced turnover rate of 11%. Texas Tech might exploit Florida’s disappointing shooting splits if it effectively uses off-ball screens.
Ultimately, three-point shooting may determine the game's outcome. Texas Tech is undefeated when hitting 13+ threes and when shooting over 50% from the field, while Florida is nearly unbeatable when making 12 or more. It's a cause versus effect argument. A team will do better when hitting threes, but it's notable. Texas Tech is one of the few teams I have a Final Four future on, and I'm going down with the ship. I expect variance to play in favor of their shooting and expect them to at least keep this within one possession. It's scary against such a dominant Florida team, but I'm envisioning a Red Raiders bounce-back and a game for the ages.
Prediction: Florida 80, Texas Tech 76
Best Bet: Texas Tech +7.5 (-115)
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.
