If you like defensive struggles with limited transition opportunities which are akin to steel cage wrestling matches, the Midwest Region final should be your type of college basketball game. As one of three regions pitting the No. 1 seed against the No. 2 seed, the Houston Cougars and Tennessee Volunteers battle it out for the right to go to the Final Four.
Tennessee is in the Elite Eight for the second straight season, but has yet to reach a Final Four in school history. Meanwhile, Houston has been there as recently as 2021, and was well on its way to another appearance last year before Jamal Shead got hurt in a Sweet 16 loss to Duke.
Will Houston’s NCAA Tournament experience and success have any bearing on this game?
Here is our best bet for the Midwest Regional Final between Houston and Tennessee.
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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 1 Houston (-3.5) vs. No. 2 Tennessee | O/U 123.5 (-108/-112)
Houston needed a basket with less than a second to go to knock off a pesky Purdue team on Friday, while Tennessee coasted to a 13-point victory and avenged its two regular season losses to Kentucky.
But I still walked away just as impressed with the Cougars, who essentially played a road game against the Boilermakers with their fans turning Lucas Oil Stadium into "Mackey South."
Houston has lost just one game since the calendar turned to December, and ironically is playing for a big geographic advantage at the Final Four with the games being in San Antonio.
Few teams would be comfortable playing Tennessee in a half-court rockfight, but this is right up Houston's alley.
One could argue the Volunteers had the easier prep for this game, as they did not have to commit as much attention to a familiar Sweet 16 foe in Tennessee.
But Houston has covered 64.3% of its games off one day rest since last making the Final Four in 2021, and its D-I best team 3-point shooting percentage should make the difference in this game.
Tennessee went 2-3 SU in games against teams that earned No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament this season. I also can't go against the Cougars' longest active winning streak (16 games), despite KenPom only predicting them for a two-point win.
Bet: Houston -3.5 (-112)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
