It was a chalky first two weekends as only for the second time in tournament history, first since 2008, all four No. 1 teams won their region. This means we’ll have the best of the best squaring off, and there will be nothing short of star power for each game. We’ll break down each matchup and give you the best bet in NCAA Men’s Final Four.
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Best NCAA Final Four Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Florida Gators (-2.5) vs. Auburn Tigers | O/U 135.5 (-115/-105)
It is always interesting to get two teams in a big game that have already faced each other. The familiarity will help with the game plan for both teams.
Florida won 90-81 in the last matchup. Despite an early deficit, they were able to come back. With a ten-point lead going into the second half, the Gators controlled this game going forward and stood strong against the No. 1 team in the country.
The Gators' outside shooting was on point at 39.4% (13-33) from the three, and Walter Clayton Jr. sank four. A perfect game from them would be hitting from the perimeter and, on misses, getting second chances. It will be important for Alex Condon to be aggressive on the boards on both ends; in the last game against Auburn, the team had 11 offensive rebounds, with Condon having three, along with 10 total rebounds.
Auburn matched up well in that game at certain spots with both teams grabbing 40 rebounds. Auburn led with six steals and 38 points in the paint. The one place where they struggled was from deep.
They went just 7-for-21 (31.8%), well below their 36.1% on the year (63rd). Miles Kelly and Tahaad Pettiford were the only two who shot well from three. Chad Baker-Mazara shoots 37.2% from three, and Denver Jones is 41.8%, so those guys need to get it going.
After a close call to UConn, Florida has looked dominant in the last two games, but Auburn's defense has been locking down opponents. The Tigers held Michigan and Michigan State to below 36% from the field and 31% from three. The concern for Auburn is their three-point shooting just isn't there, and they've been below 30% in the last two games. Their lack of perimeter shooting did them in the previous matchup, and that's what will happen here.
Pick: Florida -2.5 (-108)
Houston Cougars vs. Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) | O/U 135.5 (-115/-105)
These were two of the best teams throughout the regular season, with Duke and Houston being No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the KenPom rankings. Both teams have used their offense and defense to win games and are efficient on both sides.
That was evident with Duke just in the last two games; they had to play in a high-scoring shootout against Arizona, where they won 100-93, then followed that up with shutting down Alabama's top-scoring offense for the 85-65 win.
Cooper Flagg is the most notable player in this matchup, and as the future No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft, it's deserved, but this team is deep with talent. The big man Khaman Maluach has been incredible, with at least 13 points and six rebounds in the previous two games, and Kon Knueppel has back-to-back 20-point performances.
If there's a team that can contain this beast, it's Houston. They are physical enough and will full-court press. This feels like a game in which L.J. Cryer needs to have a memorable performance. Duke is a tall team, and they could struggle to get points in the paint, so their outside shooting needs to be on point. Cryer is 41% from the field and 42% from three and if shoots near his averages, he keeps them in contention the whole game.
It will come down if Duke can follow through with the pick-and-roll against Houston's smothering defense and hit the contested shots. Duke has size, but Houston will be physical in the frontcourt. We could have a slow-paced defensive showdown, which would mean low scoring.
Pick: Under 135.5 Total Points (-105)
