2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Predictions

by Ryan Coleman |
Mar 16, 2025

Well, we did it, folks. Selection Sunday. The Christmas celebration of the year for college basketball truthers and the moment we've been waiting for since the first tip-off back in early November. I appreciate the support and following I've received all year and am here one more time to provide you with my final bracketology article and some tips for betting the bracket. Let's do some quick housekeeping items.

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Best 2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Predictions

(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)

The Auto-Bids

Here are the teams locked in the tournament by winning their respective conference tournament, ranked roughly in order of seeding.

Houston (Big 12)
Duke (ACC)
St. John's (Big East)
Gonzaga (West Coast)
Drake (Missouri Valley)
Colorado State (Mountain West)
UC San Diego (Big West)
McNeese State (Southland)
Liberty (CUSA)
High Point (Big South)
Akron (MAC)
Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Grand Canyon (WAC)
UNC-Wilmington (Coastal)
Montana (Big Sky)
Wofford (Southern)
Robert Morris (Horizon)
Omaha (Summit)
Bryant (America East)
Norfolk State (MEAC)
American (Patriot)
SIU-Edwardsville (Ohio Valley)
St. Francis (PA) (Northeast)
Alabama State (SWAC)
Mount St. Mary's (MAAC)

Look at all those tickets punched. Odds are one of them surprises with a Cinderella run and is still playing in the second weekend but before we know matchups, it's tough to tell.

The At-Larges

Many teams have locked up their bid into the tournament outside the auto-bids. Let's go conference by conference to see where the teams currently sit.

ACC

Locks: Clemson, Louisville
Bubble: UNC

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, UCLA, Illinois
Bubble: Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska

Big East

Locks: Marquette, UConn, Creighton
Bubble: Xavier

Big 12

Locks: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Arizona, BYU, Kansas, Baylor
Bubble: West Virginia

Mountain West

Locks: New Mexico
Bubble: Utah State, San Diego State, Boise State

SEC

Locks: Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia
Bubble: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas

All Other Conferences

Locks: St. Mary's, Memphis
Bubble: VCU

The bubble has gotten much tighter as we've gotten closer to Selection Sunday, obviously. It really seems like a lot will depend on how much the committee values the recent conference tournament play. Texas had two big upsets which has pushed them into a lot of brackets but still sit at 19-15. Utah State is the closest thing you could have to a lock that isn't but I'm just not sure how the Mountain West will be looked at and they only have the 87th-ranked SOS while Boise State and San Diego State â€“ two other MWC bubble buddies â€“ both have faced stronger schedules with some bigger wins. I've also left West Virginia on the bubble because if the committee cares about recent play then they need to be punted into the sun.

Today's Games

You're always welcome to skip down to the bracket, or my bets, but I wanted to quickly cover today's games and how they might impact the bracket.

Cornell vs. Yale: Win and you're in. It's that simple. Yale would be a borderline 12/13 (I'm leaning 13) while Cornell sits as a 13/14 (I'm leaning 14).

Tennessee vs. Florida (1:00 pm ET): I pray to the basketball Gods that the winner of this game gets the final one-seed. The SEC has been such a gruel of incredibly talented teams and each team has played well enough to earn the bid. Based on history, I don't expect that to be the case, so I do see Florida as the fourth one-seed regardless.

George Mason vs. VCU (1:00 pm ET): A significant portion of bracketologists have VCU in the tournament already so this could be the first look at a bid-stealer. The Rams are 30th in KenPom, 32nd in the NET, 54th in WAB, and 17th in EvanMiya. Their 127th SOS per KenPom is not helpful but they are 3-1 in Quad 1 and 7-5 across the first two quadrants. Their neutral loss to Seton Hall back in November, a Quad 4 loss, might be the difference between playing in the First Four and missing the tournament altogether if they lose today. If that's the case, slot George Mason in the 12 slot and take VCU out. If VCU wins, they will be a deadly 10 seed.

UAB vs. Memphis: (3:15 pm ET): This is absolutely the clear bid-stealer that teams on the bubble will sweat over. Memphis as-is sits around an eight-seed and is locked into the tournament. UAB meanwhile would get the first 13-seed and kick Boise State out of the tournament, my current last team in.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan (3:30 pm ET): Again, historically the Sunday matchups don't mean much on Selection Sunday. Maybe a win here is what locks Wisco into a three-seed, or perhaps gets them to go to Milwaukee in the first rounds, but otherwise, I don't see much change. Their win over Michigan State is a much bigger accomplishment. I see the Wolverines locked into a five-seed.

Best Pre-Bracket Bets

Matchups will change a lot but here are some current futures I'm adding to my portfolio before the bracket drops:

St. John's to Win the NCAA Championship (+2200)
Colorado State to Make the Final Four (+12500)
Oklahoma to Make the Final Four (+12500)

I think people will catch up to the Johnnies now that they won the Big East but I still feel the books haven't caught up with the talent of this team. As Will Warren noted, St. John's produces 13 extra shots per 100 possessions than their opponents. That would be the 10th-highest number of any 1 or 2 seed in at least the last 23 tournaments. Their four losses this year came by a combined seven points and I'm not sure how teams will prepare for their defense. Pitino is one of the best tournament coaches in the league, if not the history of the sport, and with all the attention on the SEC this year, I expect teams to be sleeping on the Johnnies.

Colorado State is a momentum play, but it's more than just a recency play. Since February 1st, over the last month and a half of play, Colorado State has ranked 16th in basketball, per Bart Torvik. If you look over their 10-game winning streak that number jumps to eighth in basketball with a top-16 offense and defense. Their shooting has been elite of late and their closest win during their streak was eight. I know it's the Mountain West, the historical paper tiger league in March but this feels like a different team and is the only MWC squad I'm comfortable investing in.

It feels like people forgot about Oklahoma with their weak conference record but this is a team that went 6-1 in neutral games with a top-five offense. In recent play, they've also picked up, running 24th in Haslametrics momentum rank. With wins over Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan, they have shown they can play outside their conference and handle business. Jeremiah Fears has quickly become a delightful talent to watch and I won't be surprised to see them make San Antonio.

The Seeding

This is the final fake bracket before we get to the real bracket, what joy. Some big current winners of the week who may have changed their seed destiny with their play are UC San Diego, Colorado State, BYU, and Oklahoma. The SEC is clearly the best conference, but the Big Ten has become quite interesting with seeding. Regardless, here are my official bracket seeding and matchup predictions.

1 Seeds

Auburn
Duke
Houston
Florida

2 Seeds

Tennessee
Alabama
St. John's
Michigan State

3 Seeds

Texas Tech
Kentucky
Iowa State
Wisconsin

4 Seeds

Maryland
Texas A&M
Arizona
Louisville

5 Seeds

Purdue
Clemson
Michigan
Oregon

6 Seeds

Missouri
St. Mary's
BYU
Ole Miss

7 Seeds

UCLA
Memphis
Kansas
Marquette

8 Seeds

Illinois
Mississippi State
Creighton
Gonzaga

9 Seeds

UConn
Georgia
New Mexico
Utah State

10 Seeds

VCU
Baylor
Arkansas
Vanderbilt

11 Seeds

Colorado State
Oklahoma
West Virginia*
San Diego State*
Texas*
Indiana*

12 Seeds

Drake
UC San Diego
McNeese State
Liberty

13 Seeds

Yale
High Point
Troy
Lipscomb

14 Seeds

Akron
Grand Canyon
UNC Wilmington
Montana

15 Seeds

Omaha
Robert Morris
Wofford
Bryant

16 Seeds

St Francis (PA)
Norfolk State
SIU-Edwardsville*
Alabama State*
American*
Mount St. Mary's*

*Play-in games

First Four Out

Xavier
Ohio State
UNC
Boise State

Next Four Out

Nebraska
Wake Forest
SMU
Villanova

The Bracket

With the rules of the bracket, some teams will be pushed off their seed line because they can't play teams they've already faced early in the tournament. I'm bigger on teams like Louisville, Memphis, and Saint Mary's because of pure resume metrics. The predictive metrics, like how Gonzaga is a top-10 KenPom team, will help when predicting games, but don't play into their pure win-loss record and who they played. Here's your bracket!

South Region

1 Auburn vs. 16 American/Mount St. Mary's

8 Illinois vs. 9 UConn

5 Oregon vs. 12 Drake

4 Louisville vs. 13 Lipscomb

6 Clemson vs. 11 West Virginia/Texas

3 Kentucky vs. 14 UNC Wilmington

7 UCLA vs. 10 Baylor

2 St. John's vs. 15 Bryant

West Region

1 Florida vs. 16 SIU-Edwardsville/Alabama State

8 Utah State vs. 9 UConn

5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Liberty

4 Arizona vs. 13 Troy

6 St. Mary's vs. 11 Colorado State

3 Iowa State vs. 14 Grand Canyon

7 Memphis vs. 10 Vanderbilt

2 Alabama vs. 15 Robert Morris

East Region

1 Duke vs. 16 Norfolk State

8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Utah State

5 Michigan vs. 12 UC San Diego

4 Texas A&M vs. 13 High Point

6 Missouri vs. 11 Indiana/San Diego State

3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Akron

7 Kansas vs. 10 VCU

2 Tennessee vs. 15 Wofford

Midwest Region

1 Houston vs. 16 St. Francis (PA)

8 Gonzaga vs. 9 New Mexico

5 Purdue vs. 12 McNeese State

4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale

6 BYU vs. 11 Oklahoma

3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Montana

7 Marquette vs. 10 Arkansas

2 Michigan State vs. 15 Omaha

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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