We are back. After the Sweet 16 offered some exciting matchups to close out the evening, the Elite Eight starts up with only four more games before we determine the Final Four. It's been a chalky tournament so far, and there's a chance all four No. 1 seeds make it to San Antonio with three of the games being No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups.
The boring part is that there isn't a Cinderella team to root for, but the best part is that it truly is an Elite Eight of squads that should hopefully offer a valuable watching experience. Here, I will be sharing my best bets and predictions for both of Sunday’s Elite Eight matchups.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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2025 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Elite Eight (Sunday)
(Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Spread: Houston -3 | Total: 125.5
This is a yin and yang game with these teams being mirror images statistically. Both are top-20 in offensive rebounding percentage, elite in forcing poor shooting and feature All-American point guards who excel on both ends. Get out the popcorn.
The shooting performance of Houston’s LJ Cryer and Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier will be a big X factor in determining the outcome. Both teams won't allow many friendly shots anywhere inside the arc, and while each squad has aggressive perimeter defense, that's where a higher percentage of opponents’ points come from.
Given the difficulties of shooting in a football stadium, I expect a low-scoring affair that will hinge on who can manufacture the most second-chance looks. On a quick turnaround, I also have to give Kelvin Sampson the edge in his ability to scheme up something against Rick Barnes and Co.
It feels too easy, but the under seems like the clear play. Short rest with two teams that each rank in the bottom 10 at defensive possession rate. Both teams will take a while to set up in the half-court and then be forced to consistently make perimeter shots or tough jumpers. Nothing will be free here. In the neutral court game, I wouldn't be surprised if either team struggles to make it over 60 points.
Prediction: Houston 62, Tennessee 59
Best Bet: Under 125.5 Points (-110)
No. 1 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
Location: State Farm Arena – Atlanta, GA
Line: Auburn -4.5 | Total: 147.5
After seeing Michigan State struggle relatively with half-court defense against Ole Miss, there are points of concern against Auburn. Michigan State managed the frontcourt well this tournament, but they haven't seen the likes of Johni Broome. Auburn will continue its screen-to-mismatch style of offense. If Ole Miss could get over a point per possession, I expect Auburn to as well.
Offensively, Michigan State looks good. Transition offense is the name of the game, and Auburn ranks outside the top 100, per ShotQuality. The Spartans will also live at the free-throw line with Auburn's foul rate expected to be quite high. Opponents get nearly a quarter of points at the charity stripe off Auburn, where the Spartans score nearly 23% of their points, the 28th-highest in Division I (DI).
The Tigers’ bigs should limit second-chance looks for Michigan State, and it will be tough for Tom Izzo's squad to finish at the rim. But there are avenues to points for the Spartans. Michigan State's perimeter shooting also hasn't been as bad as their entire season suggests, shooting 36% from deep in their eight March games and 34.5% in the tournament. Auburn limits catch-and-shoot looks at one of the best rates in the country, but if Michigan State can cash their off-the-dribble shots, there's a real path to success.
Michigan State's defense is elite, ranking fourth overall in KenPom metrics with the second-best perimeter defense. But they don't force turnovers and allow a high shot rate. They also haven't seen an offense as dynamic as Auburn this season with their athleticism and shot-making.
This will be quite the chess match, seeing how Izzo responds to Broome down low and if Auburn can keep their transition game and switching communication intact. Based on Michigan State’s success, I expect the Green and White to play well in transition and get their free points at the charity strip to force Auburn to play catch-up.
Prediction: Auburn 79, Michigan State 75
Best Bet: Over 147 Points (-105)
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.
