2025 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Round 2 (Saturday)

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The 2025 NCAA Tournament rolls on with a full day of second-round games on Saturday. We’ve already seen bracket-busting upsets over the first two days of March Madness. Will we get more this weekend?

Let’s break down the two Midwest Region NCAA Tournament games on Saturday. No. 4 seed Purdue takes on No. 12 McNeese in the matinee matchup. Then, No. 8 Gonzaga and No. 1 Houston go head-to-head in a fascinating headliner on Saturday night.

Check out top predictions, game picks, stats to know and more in our Midwest Region game previews for Saturday’s NCAA Tournament action. Enjoy.

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2025 NCAA Tournament Round 2 Picks & Predictions

(Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook)

No. 12 McNeese Cowboys vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (-6.5) | O/U 143.5 (-105/-115)

Some thought Purdue was on upset watch in the first round against High Point (myself included). Well, the Boilermakers answered the bell with a 12-point victory. The game was close at times but Matt Painter's squad survived and advanced. They're now gifted with a Round of 32 matchup against No. 12 seed McNeese, who upset Clemson on Thursday. 

McNeese's first-round win was certainly impressive, but it also deserves some context. The Clemson offense struggled mightly with only 13 first-half points. The Tigers also shot just 44.4% from the field for the full game. Their short-handed backcourt with Dillon Hunter sidelined was also factored in. 

Some of those offensive issues can certainly be attributed to McNeese's defense. Still, a better shooting performance and a better offensive team would've beaten the Cowboys. They also blew a large second-half lead to barely hang on for a two-point win. 

Purdue can silence the doubters again behind its uber-efficient offense. The Boilermakers rank sixth in the country in offensive efficiency while shooting 38.3% from three-point range (11th). That perimeter offense can shine through against a McNeese defense that allows the 12th-highest rate of opposing three-point scoring in college basketball. Plus, Purdue big man Trey Kaufman-Renn is a problem inside. 

The way to beat Purdue is inside against its terrible interior defense. Yet, McNeese doesn’t have the post scorers or bigs to exploit that weakness. The Cowboys were hot from three in conference play, but that perimeter scoring won’t come as easy against Purdue. The Boilermakers are holding teams to 30.9% from beyond the arc this season (34th)

A few trends point towards Purdue winning and covering the spread. No. 4 seeds are on a 20-12 against the spread/ATS (62.5%) run in the second round. Plus, since 2014, No. 4-6 seeds are 19-1 straight up (SU) and 17-3 ATS (85%) in the second round when not playing another seed in that range. Finally, second-round favorites in the -5.5 to -6.5 line range are 50-12 SU and 42-20 ATS (67.7%) since 1998.

Purdue survives another upset bid to move on to the Sweet 16. McNeese has been a great story, but Will Wade’s squad won’t have enough to continue the run and match the Boilermakers’ offense in this matchup.

Pick: Purdue -6.5 (-105)

No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars (-5.5) | O/U 140.5 (-110/-110)

This is one of the best second-round matchups we've ever gotten in the NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga will try to make its 10th straight Sweet 16 appearance while Houston has been to five Sweet 16s in a row. It's also a rare Round of 32 matchup between two top-10 KenPom teams. 

Gonzaga was under-seeded, according to its predictive and advanced metrics. The No. 8 seed Bulldogs proved it in their 89-68 first-round win over Georgia. Meanwhile, Houston made easy work of No. 16 seed SIU Edwardsville with a 78-40 victory on Thursday. 

This will be an intense game with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line for two of college basketball's top programs over the past decade. Let's take the under and bank on a low-scoring, defensive-focused battle. Every possession carries a ton of weight and both coaches will have their defenses prepared. 

Houston should set the tone defensively. The Cougars allow 57.9 points per game (first in Division I) and rank second nationally in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga has a top-10 offense in the sport, but it also hasn't faced many elite defenses this season. The Bulldogs were held to 58, 67 and 58 points in three matchups vs. Saint Mary's (seventh in defensive efficiency). They also scored just 62 against UCLA (15th) back in December. 

Gonzaga wants to get out and run on offense and score in transition. Houston will specifically look to slow things down and prevent fast-break points. The Cougars are 360th in tempo and have proven capable of slowing top-tier offenses in the Big 12. Texas Tech (61 points), BYU (54), Arizona (64 and 58) and Iowa State (59) have all struggled in the past month against Houston. 

Defensively, Houston is elite at shutting down the interior. It ranks fourth nationally in two-point defense and sixth in block rate. Well, Gonzaga relies heavily on its inside scoring. The Cougars have the bigs to bottle up Graham Ike in the paint. They also hold opponents to 30.6% three-point shooting (16th). 

On the other end, Gonzaga ranks 11th in three-point defense itself - allowing 29.8% shooting from deep. That's an issue for Houston, who shot 39.6% from three but ranks just 268th nationally in two-point offense. The Bulldogs can limit Houston offensively enough to stay within striking range. 

Pick: Under 140.5 Points (-110)