Four teams will head into Sunday from the South region with the hopes of advancing to the Sweet 16. Iowa State ran away with their first-round win while Ole Miss needed to outlast a late run to advance.
Meanwhile, Michigan State pulled away in the second half and will take on New Mexico, who pulled off the first-round upset. It should be an exciting Sunday as two more teams punch their ticket to the South semi-finals in Atlanta
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(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
The loss of Keshon Gilbert didn't play a role in their last game as the Cyclones were able to do whatever they wanted inside against Lipscomb. However, Mississippi should provide a much tougher test defensively and is one of the best at creating turnovers in the country with a 20.3% turnover rate. The Rebels also only allow 56.2% of opponent attempts from inside the arc and defend those well, allowing a stifling 51.5% on those attempts.
Iowa State also has a strong defense, ranking in the top eight in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric. They force turnovers at an equally impressive 21.9% rate, but the Rebels are top three in the entire country at taking care of the ball. However, Mississippi doesn't shoot the ball particularly well as evidenced by only scoring 71 in the first round despite eight three-pointers and 15 free throws.
Points in this game may come at a premium. Iowa State is short-handed against a strong foe and Mississippi could struggle against an elite defensive unit. Regardless, this should be an excellent and hard-fought game but expect a low-scoring affair where the under is certainly in play.
Pick: Under 145.5 Points (-115)
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos
The biggest question for the Big Ten champ Michigan State Spartans coming into the tournament was if the recent run of strong three-point shooting was real or not. If Friday night was any indication, it's real and it's spectacular. The Spartans went 10-of-26 (38.5%) from deep and it looks like they've cleaned up their biggest weakness headed into a matchup with New Mexico.
The Lobos are led by head coach Richard Pitino who is familiar with Tom Izzo from his days coaching in the Big Ten at Minnesota. This squad went 2-0 against Big Ten opponents during non-conference play, both opponents beat the Spartans. Much like Michigan State, the Lobos are an excellent rebounding team, especially on the defensive end. Additionally, neither team is interested in shooting threes. Instead, both teams are in the top 50 in point distribution from inside the arc.
Both teams like to utilize their athleticism going towards the rim. But that is also where both teams shine defensively. Something has to give here and it's likely the offenses find it a hard time to score. This will be a well-coached battle against two very strong teams. I don't see either giving up much on the defensive end and expect this one to go under.
Pick: Under 147.5 Points (-110)
