2025 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Sweet 16 (Friday)
After a relatively low-key first weekend of March Madness hoops, we are back in action as the Sweet 16 continues tonight. Despite no major Cinderellas becoming tournament darlings and only one double-digit seed making it to the second weekend, we have a plethora of fantastic matchups to look forward to.
These No. 1 seeds are the best grouping of top seeds in the history of KenPom, but it's no guarantee they will all make San Antonio. We have four games tonight. While it isn't my favorite of the two nights, it's still March Madness, and for that I'm thankful. But let's get right into previewing each game with some leans and best bets.
- NCAA College Basketball Odds
- NCAA College Basketball Player Props
- NCAA College Basketball Picks & Predictions
- NCAA College Basketball Matchups
2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Strategy & Betting Picks>>
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Sweet 16 (Friday)
(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
Location: State Farm Arena – Atlanta, GA
Line: Michigan State -3.5 | Total: 143.5
This number opened at Michigan State -3.5 and has stayed steady as the closest spread among today's games. The standout here is Ole Miss's transition defense. They've limited opponents to 12 total transition points in the tournament, which is the first thing when looking at Michigan State's matchup with the Spartans scoring on the run at the 16th-highest rate in the nation. They don't turn the ball over and have a low offensive rebound rate from getting back on defense.
On the other side, Michigan State rebounds opponents’ misses at the eighth-highest rate in the nation with the league's best perimeter defense. The Spartans will draw plenty of fouls here and get some misses of their own, but Ole Miss' defense has only stepped up this tournament. I'm banking on them following that up against Michigan State tonight. Offensively, they are due for some regression and go against the seventh-best ISO defense in the nation. Everything yells under for this game.
Bet: Under 143.5 Points (-110)
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers
Location: Lucas Oil Arena – Indianapolis, IN
Line: Tennessee -4.5 | Total: 144.5
It's the rematch of the ages for Tennessee, who suffered multiple losses to Kentucky this year. And it's the first time these teams have ever played in the NCAA Tournament. What fun. I know it's a bit contradictory, considering Kentucky won both matchups, but this feels like Tennessee's game to lose.
The Wildcats went 12-for-24 from deep in both previous matchups while Chaz Lanier went 3-for-17 and Tennessee went a combined 14-for-63. Kentucky allowed 39 catch-and-shoot threes in the first game. The Volunteers’ offense isn't exactly elite, but they are due to shoot better. While there's a bit of worry for how Kentucky's offense handled Tennessee's defense in the halfcourt, I imagine Rick Barnes and Co. will have something cooked up. While my gut is on Tennessee, it's too much considering Kentucky handled them both times to bet it outright.
Lean: Tennessee -4.5 (-110)
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 1 Auburn Tigers
Location: State Farm Arena – Atlanta, GA
Line: Auburn -8.5 | Total: 153.5
It's no fun going with the clear favorite, but it's hard to see anything else happening. Auburn's defense allows the third-lowest catch and shoot rate among Division I (DI) teams, which is not great for Michigan's offense that will struggle with on-ball defense. With the Wolverines' switching defense, the Tigers will force mismatches against some of Michigan's weaker defenders who won't force many turnovers and struggle on the defensive glass.
It doesn't even seem like Auburn is trying, and they still managed to handle Creighton and Ryan Kalkbrenner. The Tigers are prepped for the bigs of Michigan, but the Wolverines haven't seen the likes of Johni Broome. This is an easy lay with Auburn.
Bet: Auburn -8.5 (-110)
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 1 Houston Cougars
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Line: Houston -8.5 | Total: 131.5
Finally, we have Purdue-Houston in a semi-home game for the Boilermakers. Houston is going to attack with their high hedge defense that has limited Purdue's pick-and-roll game in the past, especially Braden Smith. Purdue had a 28% turnover rate against McNeese and will have a lot of inefficient looks while trying to keep this game close.
Offensively, Houston's struggle is inside the arc, which is an easy target for Purdue. I expect the Boilermakers to keep up from the perimeter here as they lean on their offensive rebounding. The TLDR is I expect both teams to be limited. Despite the total already being low, this is a first-to-60 type of game.
Bet: Under 131.5 Points (-105)