2025 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bets: Round 1 (Friday)

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After a full day of college hoops we are back for more basketball with 16 more delightful basketball games as we round out Round of 64 play. It wasn't the craziest opening days of March Madness I've experienced but it was still like Christmas. We had a couple of untimely missed free throws kill a profitable day on the bets yesterday but overall it was a successful day. I'm back again today to cover the best props for today's games as we jump back in for another full day of play. The best part about losing one bet is that there's always another game to run it back. What a time to be alive. 

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Friday's Best NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bets

(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)

Joshua Jefferson Over 14.5 Points (+102 at FanDuel)

While Lipscomb has been a solid defense all year within mid-major land, I don't expect them to step up in class against this Cyclones team. Especially down low. Opponents get nearly 56 percent of points off Lipscomb from inside the arc, the 16th highest in DI hoops. The Bisons do a solid job at forcing teams into mid-range looks, the only thing is they make them. Opponents shoot 41 percent from mid-range against Lipscomb, ranked 319th in basketball. Going down low, Iowa State ranks eighth in near-proximity looks compared to 173rd defensively for the Bisons. All this being said, Jefferson thrives inside the arc. No player takes a higher percentage of mid-range/inside combo looks outside of Dishon Jackson but Jefferson is much more of a scorer and will see the floor way more. Jefferson has been consistent all year, especially lately, without Keshon Gilbert. Here, I expect more of the same.

KeShawn Murphy Over 6.5 Rebounds (-125 at bet365)

Norchad Omier may play big but it doesn't take away from the fact that Baylor doesn't have a player on their roster who is over 6'7. With Mississippi State's ability to dominate the offensive boards, a weakness that Baylor allows, and a step up in class, Murphy should eat on the boards. Per Haslametrics' paper tiger factor, no team had a more drastic decrease in efficiency when stepping up in class than Baylor. Their offensive rebound numbers are solid on paper, but against the top 150 defensive rebounding squads, Baylor took a step back and only went 5-11. If you want, feel free to bet Murphy's points and boards where you can find them but right now I simply trust the fact that he's averaged over seven boards a night as the team’s leading rebounder against a smaller team that will struggle on the defensive glass. 

Donovan Dent Under 21.5 Points (-120 at MGM)

There's a chance Donovan Dent will become a household name after today's game because he is quite talented. He was voted Mountain West Player of the year in his junior season where he continues evolving his playmaking and facilitating. So I'm doing the obvious move and betting his Unders tonight. The Mountain West has already struggled to play up in class against the tournament, and I expect more of the same in this scheme against Marquette. While both teams love to run offensively, Marquette pushes opponents deep into the shot clock, ranking 359th in DI defensive pressure rate. They also grade out quite well with transition/fast-break defense where Dent gets over six points a game, ranked in the 97th percentile of points coming off the fast-break among DI players. Dent also has one of the highest free throw rates in the country, getting a lot of points from the charity stripe but Marquette is one of the more disciplined defenses going, so his points at the line will be limited too. Not only does Marquette line up schematically against everything Dent will try to do, but I also have to imagine Shaka Smart will try to scheme something up to stop New Mexico's best player. Dent is an elite passer, so I'm betting on him leaning more toward that in today's game. 

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.