2025 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bets: Sweet 16 (Friday)
After a relatively uneventful opening weekend of March Madness, we are back with more action as we get into the second day of the Sweet 16. A lack of upsets is never fun, but it means more exciting action for the later tournament rounds.
Tonight offers some exciting matchups. While yesterday was preferred, this is still the Sweet 16 round, which is another blessed day I'm sure we'll all miss soon. What more could we ask for? In this article, I cover my favorite prop bets for the second day of Sweet 16 action.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Friday's Best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Prop Bets (Friday)
Braden Smith Under 20.5 Points + Assists (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
While yesterday’s Alabama-BYU game led with some clear overs, Purdue-Houston feels quite the opposite. Houston is going to be aggressive with its hedge-help defense, and the Boilermakers seriously struggled in those types of matchups this year.
Indiana plays a similar style, and Braden Smith only managed to score eight points against them. Houston’s hedge-and-trap game is exactly how he gets taken out of the game. I don't expect him to get enough passes to open shooters to make up for the low-scoring effort.
Tre Donaldson Under 10.5 Points (-105 at bet365)
In another game where I expect the defense to win, we have Michigan-Auburn, or the Tre Donaldson Bowl, as some may call it. The Tigers allow catch-and-shoot attempts at one of the lowest rates in the country and will be forcing the Wolverines to dribble the ball a lot in the halfcourt.
That is not great for a team that ranks 324th in turnover rate this season. To beat Auburn, you'll have to get to the rim, where they own the 11th-best near-proximity shooting defense in the country. It's no fun riding unders in March Madness, but that seems the clear option with the Tigers slowing down the pace and limiting the guard play for Michigan.
Jaxon Kohler Over 6.5 Rebounds (-125 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I know this is the most juiced line among the three options, but I feel the least confident about it. Jaxon Kohler should dominate on the glass with a top-25 offensive and defensive rebound rate in the country. Ole Miss offensively ranks outside the top 300 in offensive boards, with their transition defense setting up, while they aren't great at rebounding opponents’ misses either.
Everything seems primed for Kohler to have a monster game on the glass. The only issue is playing time. In both tournament games, the Michigan State big man played fewer than 20 minutes, while seeing the court for just 16 minutes in the Big Ten tournament loss to Wisconsin. He should put up efficient numbers while on the court; it's just a matter of whether it will be enough to get to seven boards. I believe he will, but my point is don't go breaking the bank when you see how bad of a rebounding team Ole Miss is.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.