2025 NCAA Tournament Previews & Predictions: Sweet 16 (Thursday)

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We’re down to 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament. While there haven’t been any Cinderella runs or massive upsets, it’s still been an exciting tournament. Maryland added a buzzer-beater, and many games relied on the final possession in the Round of 32.

That said, the East Region still has its No. 1 and No. 2 teams. But No. 3 Wisconsin dropped a two-point loss to BYU and won’t be in the Sweet 16.

Instead, the East Region will feature No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona and No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 6 BYU.

I’ve got the best bet for both matchups in the East Region below.

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NCAA Tournament Best Sweet 16 Bets (East Region)

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama

The Alabama Crimson Tide escaped Robert Morris in the first round and took care of business against Saint Mary’s in the second round. Alabama has Grant Nelson back and has shot the ball very well over the first two games. It’s what the Crimson Tide do. They’ve knocked down 35% from deep and 60% from inside the arc throughout the season. This is significant since the BYU Cougars have watched teams shoot 35% from downtown against them this season.

That said, Alabama is usually aggressive on the offensive glass, but the Crimson Tide will have to battle a BYU defense, allowing only 26.2% of offensive rebounds per game this season.

On the other hand, BYU might not be as fast-paced as Alabama, but its offense is also one of the best in the country. The Cougars have shot 37.3% from deep and 58.4% from inside the arc. BYU doesn’t get to the foul line as much as Alabama but should end up with more offensive rebounds in this game. Additionally, I’d expect BYU to limit turnovers more and win in that category, too.

The Crimson Tide will likely win if Alabama hits their threes all game. But in any other scenario, I like BYU’s chances. The Cougars are efficient on the glass and have also held teams to 49.3% from inside the arc. Nothing will be easy for Alabama inside, even for Clifford Omoruyi, who has had a field day over the first two games in the NCAA Tournament.

I’ll take my chances with BYU +4.5.

Pick: BYU +4.5 (-105)

No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. 1. Duke Blue Devils

At least 25% of people reading this likely have Duke winning the NCAA Tournament.

And good on everyone who picked them.

The Blue Devils have earned back-to-back wins by 23+ points to begin the NCAA Tournament. They’ve easily looked like the most dominant team in college basketball after the first week of the NCAA Tournament. That said, Arizona isn’t going to fold as easily.

The Arizona Wildcats rallied back against Oregon early in the first half and never looked back after that. The Wildcats are getting incredible play from Caleb Love, who once played for North Carolina. He likely still has some hate in his bones for Duke, which should make things interesting.

Ultimately, Duke has held teams to just a 44.1% effective field goal percentage. According to KenPom, they have the No. 1 offensive efficiency in the nation.

The Blue Devils should get open looks from downtown, especially since Arizona has allowed teams to hit 33.5% from deep this season. Additionally, the Wildcats have forced only 16.3% of turnovers, so Duke should be able to get shots up throughout the game without many errors.

Meanwhile, Arizona is less consistent from three. The Wildcats have hit only 33.4% from long distance. Ultimately, Arizona relies heavily on offensive rebounds, but against Duke, don’t expect the Wildcats to dominate the glass. After all, Duke has allowed just 26.7% of offensive rebounds this season.

The Blue Devils have also limited opponents to 30.5% from deep and 43.3% from inside the arc.

I’ll stay on the Duke bandwagon. The 9.5-point spread is a lot for a Sweet 16 game, but Duke is a powerhouse.

Pick: Duke -9.5 (+100)