2025 NCAA Tournament Previews & Predictions: Sweet 16 (Thursday)

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Four teams will converge in San Francisco on Thursday with two spots in the West Regional Final on the line. It's chalk in the matchup with No. 1 seed Florida vs. No. 4 seed Maryland.

Meanwhile, No. 3 seed Texas Tech gets to face No. 10 seed Arkansas, who pulled off the biggest upset of the tournament in their win over St. John's. Let's take a deeper look at both of these matchups.

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No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 4 Maryland Terrapins

Both teams needed second-half heroics to make their way to the Sweet 16. The two-time defending champs Connecticut gave the Gators all they could handle until Walter Clayton Jr. took over. It was surprising to see Florida struggle against the size of Connecticut. They gave the Gators fits as they were only able to shoot 45.2% from inside the arc. Luckily they were able to take advantage of the Huskies' foul propensity and hit 22 out of 34 free throws while going 9-of-19 from deep. 

The Terrapins were outplayed physically for most of their matchup with Colorado State. The Rams won the rebound battle 39-29 and held Maryland to 42.1% on two-point shots. Fortunately, when crunch time hit, the Terrapins relied on Julian Reese and star freshman Derik Queen, who hit the tournament's first buzzer-beater. If they want a chance to advance they'll need to play better in the first 38 minutes.

The Gators like to let the ball fly from deep and they're an impressive team when they do, making 35.6% of three-point attempts. However, Maryland doesn't give up those looks and they're in the top 15 in the country in three-point defense. A lot of this game will be played going to the rim, where both teams will need to be better than on Sunday. Expect the talent to take center stage here with two of the best players in the country in Clayton and Queen. With two strong defenses and some nerves, this game should stay low-scoring.

Pick: Under 155 Points (-110)

No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks

The Red Raiders have shown they can win in all kinds of ways this tournament. Against UNC Wilmington, they let it fly from three and downed their opponent. Against Drake, they decided to attack them inside to the tune of 26-for-38 from inside the arc on the backs of 25+ point performances by JT Toppin and Darrion Williams. Thursday will be a good test for them against an athletic and talented Arkansas team.

The Razorbacks shot terribly from deep on Saturday against St. John's. They managed a putrid 10.5% from three but the Red Storm were even worse (9.1%). This has been a trend all tournament from Arkansas - struggling to shoot from three-point territory. A saving grace for them has been their ability to get to the free throw line, scoring 36 points on 47 attempts. They'll need to shoot better as the competition heats up but also stay aggressive.

This could be a good matchup for Arkansas to pull off the upset. The Raiders are stalwarts on the perimeter and foul at a national average level. For a team that has only been hurting themselves from deep, they may be perfectly content attacking the basket. Any way you slice it, Arkansas is the most athletic and talented team Texas Tech has played yet in this tournament. The Razorbacks have already pulled off two upsets and are poised to keep the party going before the clock strikes midnight.

Pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-110)