2025 NCAA Tournament Sleepers to Make the Final Four

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It's that time of year again; March Madness has returned. One of the most exciting aspects leading up to the tip-off of games is when you have to fill out your bracket. If you're like me, you will stress over every little decision. If you aren't like me, you will trust my advice and use this article to build your brackets. In this article, I will discuss some of my favorite sleepers to make the Final Four. 

In this instance, I consider sleepers a five-seed or worse (higher). In 11 straight tournaments, at least one five or higher seed has made the Final Four. Some teams have come out of the woodwork, like NC State last year, while others were a bit more predictable, like five-seeded Auburn in 2019. Successfully predicting who that team might be can be the difference between winning and losing your bracket.

Below are my favorite Final Four sleepers.

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NCAA Tournament Final Four Sleepers

No. 5 Clemson

If we consider recent history, someone from the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) is going to surprise and make the Final Four. We've had three straight tournaments where that has happened, and despite UNC's showing last night against San Diego State, I like Clemson's path more. 

McNeese is one of the biggest paper tigers in the field as they seriously take a step back when it comes to efficiency against top-100 teams. They will be forced into mid-range jumpers for days and will be quite impatient with Clemson's methodical defense. Then there’s Purdue, who also has some seriously concerning road/neutral splits compared to playing in Mackey, or High Point, who I'm strongly considering taking to upset the Boilermakers. 

Of course, Houston has to get past Gonzaga, which already potentially lightens the path for the Tigers, but I see the Cougars as the most vulnerable No. 1 seed. J'Wan Roberts is dealing with an injury and he is the backbone of Houston's defense. They also historically have failed to step up in class when the tournament starts, so it will be interesting to see if that occurs again here. 

Otherwise, Clemson's slow pace helps for variance swings, and they play up in class against difficult opponents, having beaten Kentucky and Duke when it mattered. They rank in the top 25 both offensively and defensively and I simply don't see them getting enough love in the market. If you tell me a five-seed or worse is making the Final Four, Clemson is my clear choice. 

No. 7 Saint Mary's

I'm usually wary of the non-Gonzaga West Coast Conference (WCC) rep when the calendar turns to March but this year feels a bit different. They scheduled the hardest non-conference schedule under Randy Bennett, beat Gonzaga twice and have three stars that can end up being the go-to guy in Augustas Marciulionis, Mitchell Saxen and Paulius Murauskas. 

This is also a play to fade Alabama. As Will Warren noted, of the 12 No. 1 to No. 3 seeds with a shot volume as low as Alabama’s, only four made the Sweet Sixteen. The Gaels’ shot volume is wild with their second-highest offensive rebounding clip. Their pacing helps with variance in their favor.

Getting past Duke may be a bit of a problem, but crazier things have happened than a one-seed failing to make the Elite Eight. There's almost a 60% chance that a least one seven seed or higher makes the Elite Eight, so I don't hate Saint Mary's being the pick there.

Arizona has the chance to take down Duke in a rematch and, again, the Gaels’ shot volume is through the roof. Luck favors those who get more shots off in a game. This is also a decent game theory option as their odds to win three or more games in the tournament are way higher than how the public is filling out their brackets.

No. 5 Michigan

Last but not least is the Michigan Wolverines. This one feels like a game theory pick as it seems like half the public is picking UC San Diego to upset them in the first round. But I expect them to handle the Tritons and get past their Round of 32 opponent.

Getting past Auburn is an issue but the Wolverines just pulled off three consecutive wins against top-20 opponents, so they're up for the challenge. Their bigs are going to be tough to handle. If you want to play the momentum game, no team has ever lost three of its final four games while entering the tournament and won it all. So, history favors Auburn losing at some point.

Dusty May has shown his ability to make a deep run with a lesser team and can pick apart opponents’ weaknesses. I also see Michigan State as the weakest two-seed. With a banged-up Iowa State likely being the other option of a foe, you can see how a potential path might open up for Michigan. 

Honorable Mention: No. 4 Maryland

I don't hate Maryland’s game theory approach. They don't technically qualify as a sleeper, per my standards, but it seems like everyone and their brother is taking Florida in this tournament and Maryland has one of the best starting lineups in basketball. 

I wouldn't necessarily advise taking all four of these fine teams to make a deep run but it at least gives you an option or two if you're looking to differentiate your lineups in any given region.