2025 NCAA Tournament Sleepers to Make the Sweet 16

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It's that time of year again. March Madness has returned. One of the most exciting aspects leading up to the tip-off of games is when you have to fill out your bracket. If you're like me, you will stress over every little decision. If you aren't like me, you will trust my advice and use this article to build your brackets. In this article, I will discuss some of my favorite sleepers to make the Sweet 16. 

In this instance, I consider sleepers to be double-digit seeds. In 15 straight tournaments, at least one double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16. Successfully predicting that team can be the difference between winning and losing your bracket.

Below are my favorite Sweet 16 sleepers.

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Sleepers

No. 11 VCU 

This feels like the clear option to me. I've been agonizing over the VCU-BYU game, but the Rams profile out better against BYU with their Houston-esque style of play. Their well-rounded play is reminiscent of previous successful squads. Per Bart Torvik, three of the four similar comps to VCU all made the Sweet 16, with 2013 Wichita State (Final Four) and 2018 Texas Tech (Elite Eight) going further. 

The Rams have only lost twice in 2025 and are limiting teams to the lowest effective field goal percentage in Division I (DI) hoops. Their offensive rebound numbers mean they're ahead in shot volume metrics. I fully expect their defense to be a problem for a Wisconsin team that is already traveling to Denver after playing four straight games beforehand. Of course, VCU also played Sunday but had one fewer game.

I've been big on VCU all season and I'm not going to back down now. They are a team that steps up in class and plays analytically sound ball with the second-best best near-proximity shooting defense in the tournament, where Wisconsin prefers to get their shots off. If there is a double-digit seed making the second weekend, VCU is my first go-to. 

No. 11 North Carolina

Unfortunately, if there is a second go-to option, it might have to be UNC. After a complete dismantling of San Diego State, North Carolina matches up extremely well with Ole Miss, currently priced as a favorite on most books and only gaining steam. 

The First Four game also reminded folks of how important star power and guard play is in March. RJ Davis is both. Heralded as a common preseason Player of the Year selection by many analysts, he showed just why that was the case. UNC also does seem to have found its groove, ranking 10th overall since its loss to Clemson on February 10th, per Bart Torvik. The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) has historically performed well in March and they'd get a second-round matchup against a banged-up Iowa State team in the cursed Big 12 three-seed spot. 

In the same time frame UNC has ranked 10th, Iowa State sits 12th. It's a small sample size, but the Tar Heels showed how momentum can be a factor. It pains me to say this, but I do expect UNC to have a solid shot at playing in the second weekend of the tournament.

No. 12 Colorado State 

It's tough to back the Mountain West Conference (MWC) - a conference that has historically been awful in March straight up and against the spread. But if there is one team I feel comfortable backing, it's Colorado State. I don't exactly seem to be the only one who thinks that either, considering they're favored as a 12-seed over Memphis. That's already a good start.

They also have one of the best players in the tournament nobody knows about - Nique Clifford. Ranking sixth on KenPom‘s Player of the Year metrics, the 6-foot-6 senior does it all. He helped carry Colorado State to a MWC tourney title, averaging 25 points, over 4.3 assists, and 10.3 boards in those three games. The Rams haven't lost a game since February 15th, grading out as the seventh-best team on Bart Torvik over that timeline. 

Of course, Maryland is a tough foe, but it also features one of the thinnest basketball rosters. With a quick turnaround time after already traveling across the country to Seattle, that's a lot to ask for. The Rams will need to continue shooting that ball at an elite clip as they've done during their 10-game winning streak, but they've proved that it isn't a fluke they made it to the tournament. Clifford can buoy this team and the shooters and playmakers around him make Colorado State a serious threat.