2025 NCAA Tournament South Region Betting Primer (March Madness)
The South Region has the No. 1 overall seed in the Auburn Tigers, who headline the top left side of the bracket. No. 2 seed Michigan State and No. 3 seed Iowa State are also in this region.
These three teams will likely advance to the second round and beyond. However, many intriguing matchups in this region’s first round could create havoc in the NCAA Tournament.
Below, we’ll break down each team in the South Region and try to predict the outcome of the entire region. Which team will survive the South? Let’s break it down.
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2025 NCAA Tournament South Region Betting Primer
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 1 Auburn Tigers
Odds to Make the Final Four: +100
Strengths: The Tigers have one of the most balanced teams in the country. They rank second in college basketball with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 128.4 and rank 12th in defensive adjusted efficiency.
Weaknesses: Auburn ranks 317th in field goal attempts/free throw (FGA/FTA) ratio.
X-Factor: Johni Broome. The senior forward has averaged nearly 19 points per game and has added 10.6 rebounds per game while shooting 51.3% from the field.
Prediction: Elite Eight
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
Odds to Make the Final Four: +490
Strengths: The Michigan State Spartans have limited teams to 27.9% from downtown this season and allowed only 24.6% of offensive rebounds. If teams miss threes, it’s hard to earn second chances against Michigan State.
Weaknesses: Michigan State rarely gets to the foul line and isn’t very aggressive on the offensive glass. They’ll need to hit their shots consistently to win games.
X-Factor: Tom Izzo. He has 56 NCAA Tournament wins, which ranks sixth all-time.
Prediction: Final Four
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones
Odds to Make the Final Four: +500
Strengths: The Cyclones have averaged 21.8% of turnovers per game, which ranks 14th in college basketball. If Iowa State can win the possession battle, the Cyclones will be in terrific shape throughout this tournament.
Weaknesses: The Iowa State Cyclones won’t have star Keshon Gilbert for the tourney. He averaged 13.4 points per game and will be missed.
X-Factor: Curtis Jones. Without Gilbert, Jones will need to step up on offense. He’s scored 17.1 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field.
Prediction: Sweet 16
No. 4 Texas A&M Aggies
Odds to Make Final Four: +1300
Strengths: Offensive Rebounding. The Texas A&M Aggies have added 42% of offensive rebounds per game this season. But… Texas A&M’s weakness is the reason why they’ve had to rebound so much on the offensive glass.
Weaknesses: The Aggies have shot just a 47.5% effective field goal percentage, which ranks 317th in college basketball.
X-Factor: Wade Taylor IV. He’s been in some big moments with the Aggies throughout his career. He’ll need to be clutch for the Aggies if they want to survive.
Prediction: Round of 64
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines
Odds to Make the Final Four: +2300
Strengths: The Wolverines just won the Big Ten Tournament, winning three games in three days. That should boost their confidence.
Weaknesses: The Wolverines have turned the ball over 19.8% of the time this season and have added just 16% of turnovers on the other end.
X-Factor: Dusty May. May helped the Wolverines to a Big Ten Championship in his first season with the team. He also has experience in the tournament from his time with Florida Atlantic.
Prediction: Round of 64
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
Odds to make the Final Four: +2100
Strengths: The Ole Miss Rebels have allowed just 4.4% of non-steal turnovers, ranking first in college basketball.
Weaknesses: The Rebels rank 323rd in FTA/FGA ratio and have allowed teams to hit 51.6% from inside the arc this season.
X-Factor: The glass. Ole Miss has earned just 25.4% of offensive rebounds per game this season. That must change if Ole Miss wants to get out of the first round.
Prediction: Round of 64
No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles
Odds to Make the Final Four: +2300
Strengths: Marquette has turned the ball over just 13.5% of the time while adding 21.5% of turnovers on defense.
Weaknesses: Marquette has scored 36.7% of points from downtown this season but has only hit 32.5% from three-point range.
X-Factor: Senior guard Kam Jones. He is highly regarded as a top-10 player in all of college basketball. He’ll need to step up.
Prediction: Round of 64
No. 8 Louisville Cardinals
Odds to make the Final Four: +1900
Strengths: Louisville has lost just two games since December 14th, including the ACC Championship Game against Duke.
Weaknesses: Inconsistent from three. Louisville has shot just 33% from deep but has scored 36% of points.
X-Factor: Experience. While these guys haven’t played with one another until this year, Louisville ranks fifth in the nation in experience this season.
Prediction: Round of 32
No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
Odds to make the Final Four: +3100
Strengths: The Creighton Bluejays have the country’s best defensive FTA/FGA ratio. On offense, they’ve shot 60.5% from two-point range.
Weaknesses: The turnover margin. Creighton has allowed 18.1% of turnovers on offense but has earned only 11.7% of turnovers on defense.
X-Factor: Height. Although Creighton has struggled to add offensive rebounds, the Bluejays haven’t allowed a high rate of offensive rebounds on the defensive end, either.
Prediction: Round of 64
No. 10 New Mexico Lobos
Odds to Make the Final Four: +7000
Strengths: The defensive glass. New Mexico has allowed only 25.6% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
Weaknesses: New Mexico has shot just 68.4% from the foul line this season.
X-Factor: Pace of Play. New Mexico has one of the fastest offenses in the nation. Can the Lobos dictate the pace of play in the tournament?
Prediction: Round of 32
No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs/North Carolina Tar Heels
Odds to Make the Final Four: North Carolina: +4100/San Diego State: +15000
Strengths: North Carolina has just two losses since February 10th; both were to No. 1 seed Duke. San Diego State has held teams to a 45.3% effective field goal percentage this season.
Weaknesses: The Tar Heels have won just one Quad 1 game in 13 tries. The Aztecs have shot just 66.7% from the foul line this season.
X-Factor: Momentum. Whoever wins this game will have momentum heading into the next round.
Prediction: Round of 32
No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons
Odds to Make the Final Four: +5000
Strengths: Extremely balanced. UC San Diego ranks 57th in offensive-adjusted efficiency and 30th in defensive-adjusted efficiency.
Weaknesses: UC San Diego has added just 25.6% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
X-Factor: Turnovers. UC San Diego has limited turnovers to 13.4% and has earned 23.3% of turnovers on the defensive end.
Prediction: Sweet 16
No. 13 Yale Bulldogs
Odds to Make the Final Four: +17000
Strengths: Yale can shoot. The Bulldogs have nailed 38.5% from deep this season.
Weaknesses: The Bulldogs have added only 16.1% of turnovers per game this season.
X-Factor: The three-ball. The Bulldogs are electric from downtown but have also allowed teams to score 40.5% of points from downtown.
Prediction: Round of 32
No. 14 Lipscomb Bisons
Odds to Make the Final Four: +25000
Strengths: Lipscomb has shot a 55.9% effective field goal percentage while only turning the ball over 14.4% of the time.
Weaknesses: The Bisons have earned only 24.1% of turnovers. That’ll be an issue when shots don’t fall against better teams.
X-Factor: Foul shooting. Lipscomb has shot nearly 80% from the foul line on offense and rarely sends the opposition to the foul line.
Prediction: Round of 64
No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs
Odds to Make the Final Four: +25000
Strengths: Bryant has earned 34.2% of offensive rebounds per game this season and is sixth in the nation in average height.
Weaknesses: The Bulldogs rank 260th in FTA/FGA this season.
X-Factor: Blocks. Bryant has blocked 14.8% of shots per game this season. They’ve also been blocked just 5.7% of the time. That’s quite the difference.
Prediction: Round of 64
No. 16 Alabama State Hornets/St. Francis (PA) Red Flash
Odds to Make the Final Four: +25000
Strengths: The Hornets have turned the ball over only 13.2% of the time this season. St. Francis has limited opponents to 32.3% from downtown.
Weaknesses: Alabama State has shot just 45.4% from two-point range. St. Francis (PA) has turned the ball over 19.6% of the time while adding just 25.4% of offensive rebounds and a super low FTA/FGA ratio.
X-Factor: It doesn’t matter. Neither team is going to beat Auburn.
Prediction: Round of 64