Texas Tech gave NCAA Tournament survivor pool contestants a scare, needing the second-biggest comeback ever in the Sweet 16 (down 16 points) to beat Arkansas in overtime and advance to the Elite Eight. With yet another day of no upsets, all four of our survivor pool picks from Thursday survived, leaving a very chalky feel to the start of the Elite Eight round.
Depending on your NCAA tournament survivor pool’s rules, you may be asked to make just one pick for the entire Elite Eight or one selection each day the Elite Eight is played (Saturday and Sunday). We will assume two different choices are needed, so be on the lookout for the Sunday edition of this column as well. With three picks remaining, now is a crucial time to focus on surviving and advancing and leaving yourself with enough teams to pick in the Final Four and beyond.
As we have done since the Sweet 16, we rank all games in order of most confidence to least confidence and provide a short narrative for each.
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2025 March Madness Survivor Pool Advice: Elite Eight (Saturday)
Here is a list of odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook) for all the favorites to win their Elite Eight matchups on Saturday:
Best Elite Eight Survivor Picks (Ranked in Order)
(odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Florida Gators (-285)
My reason for ranking Florida ahead of Duke in this column is two-fold: I think the Gators have a better shot of beating Texas Tech than Duke does of beating Alabama. Based on what I have seen so far, I believe the Blue Devils have a higher ceiling for a National Championship than the Gators, and should be saved for the last pick accordingly.
Texas Tech may be running on fumes in this Elite Eight matchup after clawing back from 16 points down with under 10 minutes to play to beat Arkansas in overtime. And that is where Florida’s elite depth should take over, just as it did against Maryland. The Gators survived getting just 14 minutes from Alex Condon and had nine different players make a field goal, while the Terrapins got just two points (on three total shots) from their bench.
Florida is a ridiculous 9-2 against the spread (ATS) against ranked opponents and has covered 17 of its 22 games when on equal rest as the other team. Thus, the Gators should not be on upset alert in the Elite Eight.
Duke (-285)
Any good shooter will tell you sometimes you just need to see the ball go through the net and that can build the utmost of confidence throughout a game. That is essentially what Crimson Tide guard Mark Sears said after Thursday's win over BYU.
Alabama set multiple records in its 113-88 win over BYU, like making the most three-pointers in a tournament game (25) and scoring the most points in a Sweet 16 game (113) since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams.
Duke is the tallest team in the country, and its height should bother Alabama more than BYU did. But the best chance to upset a dominant Blue Devils squad is to catch fire from the perimeter. No team has a better chance of doing that than Alabama.
If forced to choose between Florida and Duke, choose the Gators.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
