2025 NCAA Tournament Survivor Pool Advice: Sweet 16 (Thursday)

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Each of our two NCAA Tournament survivor pool picks from Sunday (Maryland and Alabama) helped us advance in our survivor pools. But perhaps we should not pat ourselves on the back too much, as this has been one of the least upset-filled tournaments to date.

Compared to two years ago when just two No. 1 seeds reached the Sweet 16, who were joined by the likes of Princeton, Florida Atlantic and Arkansas, this year's March Madness has had a much chalkier feel to it with seven of the eight No. 1 and No. 2 seeds still alive.

Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks - two from the First Round (one for each day played), two from the Second Round (one for each day played), two from the Sweet 16 and one from the Elite 8, Final Four and National Championship.

Starting with the Sweet 16, we rank all four Thursday games in order of most to least confident and provide a short narrative for each.

2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Strategy & Betting Picks>>

2025 March Madness Survivor Pool Advice: Sweet 16 (Thursday)

Here is a list of odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook) for all the favorites to win their Sweet 16 matchups on Thursday:

Best Sweet 16 Survivor Picks (Ranked in Order)

(odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Texas Tech (-250)

Arkansas is capable of pulling an upset of Texas Tech, as one has to be a talented team to make it this far. One school of thought is that the Razorbacks are only going to get better the longer they last in this tournament, as they overcame a 0-5 start in conference play and have been working Boogie Fland back into the rotation the last two games.

However, I would not advise using No. 1 seeds Florida or Duke this early as those two could be on a collision course to meet in the National Championship. Texas Tech has wins over three teams that made the Sweet 16 (BYU, Arizona, Houston), and it plays the kind of defense that can frustrate Arkansas, holding five of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 70 points.

Alabama (-205)

BYU is a scary matchup for Alabama, as it does many things similar to the Crimson Tide, like playing with pace, spacing the floor and shooting a ton of three-pointers.

I am only advising Alabama this high in the pecking order because it is wise to save the two No. 1 seeds for later rounds. But if forced to use the Crimson Tide here, one can draw confidence from the experience of last year’s Final Four run.

Florida (-265)

If strategy dictates going a safer route with picking a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16, I would advise using Florida, as Duke seems to have an easier path to the Final Four and/or National Championship. The Gators were pushed by UConn in the second round, but head coach Todd Golden thinks his team will be better off in the long run for those pressure-packed moments.

Florida has the size necessary to frustrate Maryland’s massive frontcourt tandem of Derik Queen and Julian Reese. I expect Florida to wear Maryland down with its depth advantage, as the Terrapins rank 319th in bench minutes.

Duke (-425)

Duke is by far the biggest favorite in this round and should enjoy another nice home-court advantage playing in Newark, as the Blue Devils have a big following in the tri-state area.

Duke should be saved for future rounds, though, as it figures to be another big favorite over the BYU/Alabama winner in the Elite 8.

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.