2025 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Previews & Predictions (Friday)

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Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis will host four strong teams who have hopes of advancing to Sunday's Midwest Regional Final. Both matchups are chalk as the top-seeded Houston takes on the 4-seed Purdue while the 2-seed vs 3-seed matchup pits SEC foes Tennessee and Kentucky. Let's take a look at these matchups with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

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Best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

No. 1 Houston vs No. 4 Purdue

The Houston Cougars have the nation's longest winning streak with 15. They've done it with elite defense and the best three-point shooting in the country. They've continued that hot shooting in the tournament as they've gone 18-of-44 from deep, good enough for 40.9%. This has made up for a poor inside game that is a result of being a below-average-sized team that doesn't boast a single player over 6’8.

Purdue has made their name in the tournament over the last decade or so with their incredible big men in both size and skill. They certainly have the skill down in Trey Kauffman-Renn but at 6’9 he doesn't have the size of some of his predecessors. This has resulted in the Boilermakers allowing 56.2% from two-point territory on the year, one of the worst marks in the country. They've made their way through this season led by their guards and strong three-point shooting.

Purdue has been a team that allows opponents to attempt 42.8% of their shots from deep. If that's the case against Houston they could be in for a long night on the defensive end. Conversely, Purdue will need to lean on Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer who combine to shoot 41.3% from deep and should be able to get shots off against Houston. Both of these teams like to slow it down and that's why this total is low. However, the elite shotmaking from deep against defenses that allow three-point attempts could allow this one to be sneaky high-scoring.

Pick: Total Over 132.5 (-110)

No. 2 Tennessee vs No. 3 Kentucky

This will be the third matchup of the season for the Volunteers and the Wildcats. Each of the first two matchups saw Kentucky pull off the win behind incredible shotmaking. The Wildcats went 24-of-48 from deep while Tennessee managed to shoot just 22.2% from range. The season-long numbers indicate that both of these performances were outliers to these two teams.

The Volunteers have been about an average shooting team this year but they've often made up for it by being a great offensive rebounding team. They rebound 35.5% of their misses and against Kentucky, they averaged 13 offensive rebounds a game. Kentucky meanwhile has been a strong shooting team that takes care of the ball. Although they have a lot of size, they've allowed teams to score inside on them at a 53.6% clip, something Tennessee can have success doing.

It's tough for a team to beat another three times in one season. Each of the first two matchups saw Tennessee put up some of their worst shooting performances of the season. The Wildcats will struggle to compete with the physicality of Tennessee and barring another 50% barrage from three, they may finally relinquish a contest to the Volunteers.

Pick: Tennessee -4.5 (-110)